Monthly Archives: April 2010
Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of April 30th, 2010
How to Train Your Dragon will be dethroned this weekend by A Nightmare on Elm Street. The question is how well will it do, especially because this weekend is usually a dumping ground for movies (do you remember Nicolas Cage’s Next?) Another new release just looks to have a respectable opening, as Brendan Fraser stars in Furry Vengeance, and it hopes to at least beat How To Train Your Dragon for 2nd place. Here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:
Another franchise gets rebooted with the remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street starring Jackie Earle Haley as the iconic Freddy Krueger. Fans of the franchise know what to expect, as the film follows the plot of the original. Freddy haunts the dreams (or nightmares) of the teenagers on Elm Street, and when they are dreaming he can kill them. It was an excellent premise, and the franchise was very popular in the 80’s. As the series went on, the sequels couldn’t live up to the greatness of the original, and the series died. It was rebooted with Freddy vs. Jason which did extremely well, but it’s been 2003 since that film came out. The question to me is how well will this film do at the box office, because I don’t think interest is that high on this film, as audiences are gearing up for Iron Man 2. The best way to compare this film is with other reboots of horror franchises. Here are the opening weekends for some of the rebooted films:
2009 – Friday The 13th – $40.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Prom Night – $20.8 million opening weekend
2007 – Halloween - $26.3 million opening weekend
2005 – The Amityville Horror – $23.5 million opening weekend
2003 – The Texas Chainsaw Massacre – $28 million opening weekend
All these reboots had openings over $20 million, and with A Nightmare on Elm Street arguably been the most popular of the franchises, logic would make me think that it will have an opening weekend north of $40 million, surpassing Friday The 13th. Reviews will not matter this weekend, as audiences who see this film want a good scare (Rotten Tomatoes is only listing the film at 10% positive), so the question is how popular is Freddy Krueger in 2010? Unfortunately, I don’t think all that much. I think the because of the fact that we have had more and more subpar remakes A Nightmare on Elm Street will suffer. It is the first legitimate horror film to open in quite awhile, but this is such a terrible weekend to open a film, as it is not going to show any legs at the box office over the coming weeks. Having said that, horror films don’t usually show legs anyway, so maybe it’s the perfect release date. Opening in 3,332 theatres, I’m predicting a 1st place finish for A Nightmare on Elm Street with a gross of $33 million.
Brendan Fraser stars in the film Furry Vengeance. The plot follows Fraser, who is a real estate developer that is about to build some homes in a woodland area. The critters of the forest do not like this one bit, and set out to stop the houses from being built by attacking Fraser. The critics have not been impressed with this film and as of this writing the film has received a 0% rating from Rotten Tomatoes after 20 reviews. This could be the worst film of the year with those early numbers. Brendan Fraser has been in a lot of hit films, and I don’t think he gets enough credit as a bankable star, but unfortunately this film just looks so bad that I don’t think many people will be interested in seeing it. Opening in 2,997 theatres, I’m predicting a disappointing 3rd place opening for Furry Vengeance with a gross of $11 million.
With A Nightmare on Elm Street and Furry Vengeance making the top five this weekend, I’m predicting that The Losers and Kick-Ass will be knocked out of the top five. Once again, I’m expecting a very tight battle at the box office this weekend, as I’m predicting that less than $6 million will separate 2nd place from 7th place. Here’s how I see the rest of the top five rounding out:
How to Train Your Dragon continues to be the story of the spring, and it should have another incredible hold. I’m predicting that How to Train Your Dragon will drop 26% for a gross of $11.3 million, which will make it the #2 film at the box office.
Date Night should continue to play well this weekend, as I think it is the comedy of choice in theatres right now. I’m predicting that Date Night will drop 35% for a gross of $6.8 million, giving it a 4th place finish at the box office.
The Back-Up Plan should suffer the biggest drop from 2nd place to 5th place, as the subpar opening weekend and very negative reviews should turn off audience. Dropping 52%, I’m predicting a gross of $5.8 million for The Back-Up Plan.
The Losers and Kick-Ass will also be in the hunt for 5th place, but I don’t think that they have a realistic chance of getting into the top five. I’m predicting that The Losers will drop 55% for a gross of $4.2 million giving it a 6th place finish and Kick-Ass will drop 57% for a gross of $3.9 million, making it the #7 film.
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
The Good Heart stars Paul Dano and Brian Cox and is about life at a dive bar in New York. It does not have an official theatre count and has a 36% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Harry Brown stars Michael Caine as a man who seeks vengeance on the criminals and drug addicts in his neighbourhood. It does not have an official theatre count and has a 70% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Human Centipede is about some American tourists in Europe whose car breaks down, and then they are captured by a mad surgeon who wants to fuse them together to make human centipedes. It is being released in 1 theatre and has a 57% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Mercy is a film about a novelist who writes about love, even though he has never been in love, until he meets a women named Mercy. It is being released in 1 theatre and has a 33% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Please Give stars Amanda Peet and Catherine Keener and is about life in the 21st century, and how hard it is for their characters to be a good and honest people, when so much poverty and sadness surround her. It is does not have an official theatre count and has an 88% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Touching Home is a film by brothers Logan and Noah Miller and is essentially an autobiography of their lives. It is does not have an official theatre count and has yet to be reviewed on Rotten Tomatoes.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
- A Nightmare on Elm Street – $33 million
- How To Train Your Dragon – $11.3 million
- Furry Vengeance – $11 million
- Date Night – $6.76 million
- The Back-Up Plan – $5.8 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
Can’t Win For Losing – JP Enjoys The Hell Out Of The Losers And Nearly Finds Himself Being One
Last week, regular Biff Bam Pop! movie box-office oracle Scotty G released his prognostication as to how many ducats the latest comic book-to-Hollywood-film would garner on its opening weekend.
Now, I’m not privy to what sorts of alchemy, witches brew, or conference with celluloid spirits Scotty employs in his currency-fuelled suppositions, but his prediction of a twelve million opening for The Losers seemed preposterous to me. C’mon, man! I read that comic book series! It’s badass! So badass, in fact, that I bought my maximum allotment of shares in the title on the Hollywood Stock Exchange (50,000 shares at $10.79/share) when I heard that the acclaimed Vertigo Comics series was being turned into a film nearly three years ago.
How could it go wrong? As a comic book series, The Losers was a fast-paced, stylized take on a time-worn tale: a rogue C.I.A. faction wrongs a group of special forces operatives who then seek revenge on their corrupt employer. Perhaps more so than the numerous explosions, vividly brought to life by artist Jock, characterization by writer Andy Diggle was key in the reader enjoyment of the series. And the film version gets all the necessary parts right.
Clay, played by Watchmen’s Jeffrey Dean Morgan, is the affable leader of the group of hard-luck heroes. Chris Evans, known for his comedic twist in Fantastic Four, works a breakthrough performance as the goofy but always likable Jensen, the team’s high tech communications wizard. Idris Elba, of The Wire fame, is the hard-nosed, no nonsense Roque while sultry Zoe Saldana, fresh off of hits (in little films you might have heard of called) Star Trek and Avatar, rounds out the cast by playing the mysterious Aisha.
Scotty G, in his weekly column, said that there was little “box office draw” here, certainly not enough to carry the film toward an opening weekend breakthrough. Now, I’m no rube. I know this film cost just under $30 million to make – a teeny, tiny sum in today’s filmmaking business. But it was also produced by Joel Silver, the master of the action genre, the guy that gave us Lethal Weapon and The Matrix. Because The Losers is a bit of an obscure title, I knew it wouldn’t make the kinds of money those films did, but I did believe it would garner more than $25 million on its opening weekend.
So did many others. Leading up to the day of release, I watched my pretend Hollywood shares in the movie rise towards the $55 mark, making me a virtual millionaire, all the while chuckling at Scotty’s box office prediction. I thought that maybe I’d email him, asking if he’d want to take a bet. I got busy and never got around to it.
I went out with my buddy Denny, another fan of the comic series, on the weekend and we plopped our excited butts onto the theatre seats, a big bag of popcorn in our laps and watched The Losers play out in front of us. It was exactly what we expected.
The Losers is a rip-roaring affair: a fast-paced buddy picture of military-sized proportions where the action is intense and the jokes between the ensemble cast of underdog characters make the audience vested in their personalities. I couldn’t help but feel that I was one of their gang. And being a Loser was a pretty good place to be.
Director Sylvain White gets the most out of his miniscule budget. The onscreen guys (and gal) all look like they’re having a fun time making this flick. And “fun” is the key to this movie. Jason Patric, playing the evil mastermind Max, is way over the top, eager to make a racist remark as quickly as kill one of his henchmen in a flight of fancy. There are laugh-out loud moments here too, like when the scene-stealing Evans runs through an office building with Max’s world-shattering secrets buried in a hard drive under his arm – all while Journey’s Don’t Stop Believin’ plays for the toe-tapping audience.
The film’s just over ninety minutes in length which helps to keep the momentum always feeling fresh. Still, I wish it were a bit longer as I was having such a good time watching.
In the end, everyone pretty much gets what they deserve – except for the audience. You see, The Losers is built to have a sequel or two and the film ends with this in mind. As a reader of the comic books, I know that there are surprise reveals to be had in the next chapter – game changing revelations that are hinted at throughout the movie – that only those in the know would ever discover. The audience needs to see a sequel so that they can experience these revelations for themselves!
Checking over Scotty’s weekend box office totals, I see that his deduction was right on the proverbial money. I love an underdog. The rest of the world? Apparently not so much. Logging into the Hollywood Stock Exchange, I see that my $55 stock has plummeted to nearly $20, my virtual millions have virtually evaporated.
I don’t know why The Losers didn’t do so well this past weekend. Maybe it’s not a chick-type flick and so didn’t take in the “date night” bucks. Maybe the ads I saw on all the websites I normally frequent were hitting too small a niche market. Maybe the word didn’t get out to the majority of the film-going public. Maybe reviews have been overly harsh.
Maybe the film’s title was always a prognostication of its future.
I don’t know. I don’t expect to see that sequel any time soon. Perhaps The Losers will have legs and make some real money over a long period of time at the cinemas. Maybe it’ll find an audience on DVD and Blu-Ray.
I may not know much, but I do know two things: I know I loved the flick. And I know I will never doubt the Box Office Oracle Scotty G in the future.
Good thing I didn’t make that bet. I’d have ended up being the…
A Merger, A Mutiny and A Major Strategic Shift – Pdawg on Survivor: Heroes Vs. Villains
After 25 days of brutal physical competition, dangerously aggressive challenges and brilliant gamesmanship, the Heroes and Villains left standing in Survivor 20 make it to the all-important merge. This, along with making it to the jury, is a major milestone in the game and signifies a change in strategy as the game shifts from a team-first mentality to a every man/woman for him/herself strategy.
Prior to the merge, Russell, Parvati and Danielle go over their strategy. The plan is to make JT think the girls are in charge and Russell is in danger. Courtney is gone because Parvati played her immunity idol (in addition to Russell playing the one JT gave him) so Courtney was eliminated instead of Parvati. Once JT is on board, the Villains will pick off the Heroes one-by-one on their way to the top-3.
The Villains arrive at the Heroes camp and JT puts the pieces of the puzzle together in his head just as Russell had expected – Parvati must have had an idol as well and played it. JT greets Russell and the two exchange knowing glances. Russell knows JT is hooked. Parvati and Danielle rejoice in the fact that they have an Ace up their sleeve in the form of a hidden immunity idol that nobody else knows about.
The newly formed Yin-Yang (good and bad) Tribe is formed and new, black buffs are handed out. Russell spends a few minutes assuring JT and Rupert that he’s on board with their plan and he even goes as far as to swear on his kids…kind of a Johnny Fairplay move if you ask me. JT is sure Russell is trustworthy as he’s just “a good old country boy” like JT. Sure he is.
Sandra, the only Villain not part of Russell’s alliance, sees her chance to change the game and informs Rupert that Russell is in command and can’t be trusted. Rupert reports back to Candice, Amanda and JT. The four of them concoct a plan to trap Russell in a lie by telling him they’re voting for Parvati and then voting for someone else to see how Russell votes and uses the idols. JT doesn’t like the plan as he’s fallen for Russell’s story in a big way.
In them meantime, Parvati and her old friend Amanda have a reunion on the beach where Parvati shares the fact that she has an idol and Amanda lets her know that the Heroes are gunning for her. Realizing that Amanda is a shrewd player, Parvati begins developing her own plan to use the idol, if necessary, to protect the heroes.
The immunity challenge is a test of strength, mental toughness and perseverance as the players attempt to balance on a tall pole – last one standing wins. In the end, Parvati and Danielle are the final two in the game and Parvati opts to let Danielle gain immunity so they are both safe.
Before Tribal Council JT realizes it is strange that Parvati gave up in the challenge and let Danielle win. He decides to go along with the Heroes’ plan to tell Russell they are voting for Parvati, but vote for Sandra instead to see which way Russell goes. Meanwhile, Russell gives Parvati his idol and tells her to protect herself at Tribal and vote for JT. Parvati goes to Tribal Council with two immunity idols and her closest ally, Danielle, safe.
At Tribal Council Rupert complains about Parvati and Danielle eating too many bananas and Russell admits to spending more time with the Heroes than Villains in an attempt to show JT et al that he is still on board. The players vote and Jeff asks for any immunity idols. Parvati stands up, which brings a smile to JT’s face and proceeds to give her idol to Sandra. Then, to everyone’s surprise, she pulls a second idol out of her bag and gives it to Jerri. Russell, the king of the hidden immunity idol blindside is shocked. “You have some explaining to do,” he tells Parvati. “Secret,” is all she says. And with that bold strategic move by Parvati, JT is eliminated from the game with the five Villain votes.
The Villains clearly have the upper hand for the time being unless Sandra flips now while she can. Her vote means a lot to the Heroes and they may be willing to protect her in order to keep a few Heroes in the game. It will be interested to see how Parvati handles Russell now that he knows she’s been keeping secrets. Russell will not like that and he may decide that she’s too smart/dangerous to keep in the game. For now, all the power rests with Russell, Parvati and in some ways, Sandra. But, don’t underestimate Danielle. She’s played this ‘under the radar’ game before and she could be a surprise member of the final three!
The Scribe Has Spoken…
Is It Really Happening? Andy Burns talks to Transatlantic’s Neal Morse Part 2: Covers, Career, And A Willing Audience
Monday saw the first part of my interview with Neal Morse, who joined forces with his Transatlantic bandmates Mike Portnoy (Dream Theatre, drums), Pete Trewavas (Marillion, bass), and Roine Stolt (The Flower Kings, guitar) for the first time in nearly a decade to record the band’s third album The Whirlwind. I had the chance to sit down with Neal prior to the band’s show Montreal’s Metropolis Theatre. If you haven’t had the chance, click here to read part one before you delve into part two below.
Andy Burns: There’s a couple different versions of The Whirlwind – the single disc, the double disc with four new songs and four covers, and then the triple with the making of the album DVD. Why the decision to focus on the title track as the album, as opposed to making it an official double album?
Neal Morse: The train just starts rolling and stuff just starts happening and we just start going for it. We kind of mapped out the whole Whirlwind album on the first night. It all just kind of happened. As far as the bonus tracks go, what was going on was that I wanted it to be a double. I thought if I had a 44 minute demo already, I know Roine has tons of stuff, Pete’s got stuff, and Transatlantic always makes everything longer…I actually told the labels that it was going to be a double album. So I was kind of pushing for a double but the other guys didn’t want to do it. I wanted to try and include “Such A Time” and make it longer but they weren’t into that. Somehow that was the decision that was made; we’ll fill up one disc to capacity and we’ll use these other things as bonus tracks.
Andy Burns: How did you choose the cover songs on the second disc?
Neal Morse: Oh you know, the usual way. You throw out ideas and people will latch on. I’ve been wanting to do (Genesis’ “Return of the Giant Hogweed”) forever.
Andy Burns: I was listening to that the other night and it just sounds great. It’s very suited to your voice.
Neal Morse: Well thank you. I didn’t think I was going to be able to sing it, actually, because we did it in the original key. We’d have to lower it if I tried to sing it live. I really yell that thing out (laughs).
Andy Burns: It’d be nice to hear (Peter) Gabriel sing it once live.
Neal Morse: Yeah, he’s the man.
Andy Burns: Obviously I know that your faith is a fundamental aspect of you and of your music and I was wondering, is it easier now, with the nearly ten years that you’ve been a solo artist, to come back to Transatlantic and align you spirituality with the music that you’re making in the context of the band? Because I find that there’s a lot of spirituality throughout the entire album…
Neal Morse: Yeah.
Andy Burns: But sometimes I find it, I don’t know if subtle is a negative word because I don’t mean it to be, but I think there’s an element of subtlety to it, and I wonder if it’s easier for you now then it would have been ten years ago?
Neal Morse: Well, I go through different spaces. You know, when I first did Testimony, for example…like Snow (Neal’s final album with Spock’s Beard, released in 2002) was very frustrating for me because what I really wanted to say, I couldn’t really say. It’s one thing when you feel like you can’t say it and you want to, and then with Testimony I just wanted to say “Jesus, I’m talking about Jesus, this is what he’s done for me.” And once I got that out of my system I could recognize that the audience that I’m speaking to is going to receive it better if it is maybe veiled a little bit. It’s kind of like, if somebody comes into a restaurant and they take this piece of meat and they hit you in the face with it or cram it down your throat, you’re just going to choke. But if they dress it nice and they give you some other things to go with it, you know what I mean? You try and make it something that people will taste and see and eat. And something I’m really grateful for is that Transatlantic is very open for me saying what I feel to say and I didn’t hold back. There wasn’t a time where I felt like I was holding back with what I wanted to say. I felt like…and it shouldn’t be what I want to say, it should be what God wants to say…I felt like God was able to say what he wanted to say. I’m really grateful for that, that everybody is open enough for that, and that the audience is open enough for it.
Andy Burns: As a fan it feels that way. Certainly from watching all of the DVD’s from over the last few years, it seems as though you’re blessed with an audience that will follow you whichever way you’re going right now.
Neal Morse: Isn’t that amazing? Who could write this story? Only God could write it (laughs). I couldn’t write it. You know, I can’t believe some of the things that have been happening. That you could stand in front of a secular audience and sing some of the things that I sing and watch people wind up on their feet cheering. I never would have dreamed that could actually happen. I’d think they’d boo you off the stage. Not with The Whirlwind, you know. But I’ve been in concerts where all I’ve had left to play as an encore is “King Jesus” and we’d go out and go for it. And they’d be up on their feet cheering. What an opportunity it is. I’ve been given just a very unique opportunity to talk to people about the Lord in a unique way to people that wouldn’t necessarily ever hear it. So I think it’s a real blessing.
Andy Burns: How has the tour been going?
Neal Morse: It’s been going great. I’ve had a good night every night which is really unusual for me, honestly. No vocal struggles yet. Every night has been powerful and good so far.
Andy Burns: We’ll see a live album, I would hope?
Neal Morse: I would imagine. There’s going to be some filming and taping. We’re going to be able to get to Europe now. Hopefully the volcanoes hold off…
Andy Burns: Yeah, that’s been crazy.
Neal Morse: It is crazy. Mike said he was watching the tv and he’s like “man, it looks like The Whirlwind album cover”. They’re showing Europe and the cloud and this swirl. And they’re talking about the transatlantic and the picture of this whirlwind and he’s like “wild, we’re on the news.”
Andy Burns: What’s the greatest aspect of working with these guys again?
Neal Morse: The creative spontaneity and the excellence. These guys are all real artists and they’re creating fresh every night. Roine doesn’t play the same way twice. He hardly ever does a solo the same. And it’s really cool to see and think “what’s he going to play?” Mike doesn’t play anything the same (laughs). He doesn’t really rehearse. He just listens. He plays it fresh every night. You know what I mean? He never does the same fills. I love it. The excellence and the freshness and the creativity. It’s an honour to be playing with them. That’s all I can say really.
EPILOGUE:
I turned off the tape recorder after 17 minutes, though my conversation with Neal didn’t stop there. But for the purposes of this piece it did. The moments that followed are just for me. What I will say is that Neal Morse is one of the most inspiring people I’ve ever met, and our conversation has stuck with me for days now. And I figure it will for a very long time. It was a very moving and profound experience for me and I thank Neal for his time and kindness and Bill Evans for helping make it all happen.
As for the gig, well, it was pretty awesome. 3 hours, 6 songs. It was prog rock nirvana. I’ve seen hundreds and hundreds of shows over the last 20 years, but I have a feeling that Transatlantic live in Montreal has made it into the upper echelon of my favourite gigs. Less than 24 hours after arriving in the city I was back on a train to Toronto, my whirlwind of an adventure coming to a close. There are moments, though, where I still can’t believe it really happened.
But it did.
DVD Tuesday with Scotty G
It’s Complicated – Steve Martin, Meryl Streep, and Alec Baldwin star in a story about a divorced couple who rediscover their spark at their son’s college graduation, despite the fact that they are now married to other people. What they think was a one off event somewhere in the country ends up interfering with their personal lives back home. If you were to take away the stars, you would think this film would be a heavy duty drama, but it’s a comedy, so don’t expect too much seriousness. Nancy Meyers specializes in directing chick flicks (What Women Want, The Holiday, and Something’s Gotta Give). The film was a modest hit at Christmas, as it has grossed just over $112 million. The cast is appealing, and this is the highest profile title of the week.
The Descent 2 – It’s a Direct-To-DVD sequel, and some people have asked if this sequel is necessary. It picks off where the original ended with Sarah escaping the caves, and having problems making people believe what happened. She’s covered in blood, her friends are gone, and the authorities do not believe her story. Sarah has to return to the caves with a search party to locate her pals, and revisit the horrors within. Not only is she fighting the creatures in the caves, but she’s also dealing with the search party not believing her version of the events that transpired. In horror movies, when people doubt other people, they usually get killed, so I would expect that to happen here.
Disgrace – John Malkovich stars in this drama about a South African teacher who has an affair with one of his students. When he is found out by the university elders, he is forced to resign. Malkovich goes to live with his lesbian daughter, and finds out that she has a business partnership with a man named Petrus, who is black. One day, when Malkovich is not around, his daughter is attacked and raped, and Malkovich immediately assumes that Petrus is somehow involved. Malkovich’s daughter becomes pregnant after the rape and decides to keep the baby. It’s a pretty heavy film, but Malkovich is always an interesting actor to see what he does.
Ride With The Devil – This film was overlooked back in 1998, but is getting a second chance thanks to the Criterion Collection. The film is directed by Ang Lee, and stars Tobey Maguire, Jeffrey Wright, Skeet Ulrich, Jim Caviezel, Simon Baker, Mark Ruffalo and Jewel (that’s a pretty awesome cast). Ride With The Devil is about life on the frontier during the Civil War. It is not a typical Civil War film as you will not see as much of the epic battlefields that you might be used to seeing, as the film deals with the Bushwhackers//Jayhawk battles on the frontier. Maguire is the star of the film who has to deal with the war killing more and more of his friends, which causes him to debate where his loyalties lie in the war.
TV ON DVD
The Hills: Season Five, Part Two – With Lauren leaving at the end of Season Five, Part One, the doors opened for Kristen to take over as the focus of the show, and Kristen wastes no time in making an impression, as she goes after Audrina’s boyfriend in front of Audrina. Meanwhile, Heidi and Spencer are having marital issues. I have never watched an episode of the show, and I question how re-watchable it is.
G.I. Joe: Season 2.0 – Follow General Hawk, Duke, Scarlett, Lady Jaye, Snake Eyes and the rest of G.I. Joe, as they battle the forces of Cobra led by Cobra Commander and Destro. I’ll be blunt, I bought the first season on DVD, and the series did not hold up as well as I remembered it, although I still love the life lessons at the end of every episode. Having said that, the original cartoon is more entertaining than the 2009 film, so it’s definitely a sentimental purchase if you buy it.
Until Next Tuesday!
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