The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 vs Happy Feet 2 – Biff Bam Pop’s Box Office Predictions, Weekend of November 18th

It’s blockbuster time at movie theaters this weekend. Unless you’ve been lucky enough to be living under a rock, you know that The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 is being released, and with it will come a lots and lots of money. The question isn’t will the latest installment of Bella and Edward’s romance hit number one, but how much will it actually gross when it’s all said and done?

Nobody is going to accuse The Twilight Saga films of being art…or even very good for that matter, but there’s no question there is a diehard audience for the series, which is in the midst of wrapping up. While you can’t do much about the lead actors in Breaking Dawn Part 1, with Oscar winning director Bill Condon on board, there’s a chance that this Twilight film could actually possess some quality filmmaking. And there will be some sex. PG-13 sex, but still sex. On that note, I think we’ll see a solid opening for these shimmering vampires and moody werewolves, likely along the lines of the previous film, Eclipse. I’m predicting we’ll see a more than solid $148 million debut for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 this weekend, a franchise best.

Also opening this weekend is Happy Feet 2, from director George Miller and staring the voices of Elijah Wood, Robin Williams and Pink, among others. The original Oscar winning film, released back in 2006, did great box office and was a critical favourite. This sequel has received lots of promotion in the months leading up to its release, and should have a strong weekend as alternate family programming. Look for a second place showing for Happy Feet 2 and a gross of $50 million.

As for the rest of the top 5, look for Immortals to drop hard from the top spot to land at number three with $20 million. Puss In Boots will also see a larger drop than it has, thanks to the arrival of Happy Feet 2 in theatres. Puss In Boots should place at number four with $16.5 million. Rounding out the top five will be Adam Sandler’s underwhelming Jack and Jill. I’m predicting a lacklustre $11 million for this one.

Opening in limited release is the new George Clooney film, The Descendants. I’ll have more on this one when it hits wide release shortly, but this should debut outside of the top five.

So, to recap, here are our predictions:

1) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 – $148 million
2) Happy Feet 2 – $50 million
3) Immortals – $20 million
4) Puss In Boots – $16.5 million
5) Jack and Jill – $11 million

Check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!

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