All bets are off this weekend at the cinema!
No, it’s not the release of the summer’s first tent-pole feature (Iron Man 3 is still a month away) – it’s just BBP’s esteemed Editor-in-Chief, Andy Burns, asking me to do him a solid and come up with astute predictions for the box office this weekend. As you might recall, I’m not so good at this job, and on this particular weekend, the science of money prognostication is…even more complicated.
You see, it’s the second weekend of G.I. Joe Retaliation battling some downright Evil Dead remake, which are both up against the re-release of the classic Jurassic Park (in 3D this time out). Accounting has never been more difficult!
Check out my (hopefully not-so futile) attempts at number crunching after the jump!
Evil Dead is the R-rated remake of Sam Raimi’s 1981 cult-classic film called, appropriately enough, The Evil Dead. The version released this weekend made its world premiere at the SXSW Film Festival a month ago to some acclaim. For many, nothing will be able to replace the original. Bruce Campbell (star of that movie) is an absolute hero to fans and the film’s dark and quirky storytelling, spiced with ample blood and gore and gross out visuals, have made it an untouchable classic. Still, the new Evil Dead should see that built-in audience come out in droves this weekend along with a whole new generation out to give it a try. This Evil Dead seems to take itself much more seriously than the original (C’mon. “The Most Terrifying Film You Will Ever Experience.” Really?), perhaps looping it in with all the other run-of-the-mill horror films we get these days, but that positive word of mouth should have people seeing past its potential derivative nature. I’m betting Evil Dead, showing in over 3,000 theatres, has one good weekend in it, taking in $25 million in a first place finish.
By the way, they brought Bruce Campbell back in a small role for this remake. We can only hope for a “Who’s laughing now?” tribute line!
G.I. Joe: Retaliation has been doing well at the box-office. So well, in fact, that we’re hearing word that another “Yo Joe!” will get made! Still, I think much of the audience that wants to see G.I. Joe: Retaliation saw it last week. The movie should see a box office decline of roughly half of its previous weekend take, which is still a sizable amount. Look for a second place finish with $21 million.
Jurassic Park 3D is really the only other big name film debuting this week. It’s a smart move by the studio, releasing the well-regarded and well-remembered movie two weeks after the threat of G.I. Joe: Retaliation and well before the big popcorn of Iron Man 3. Personally, I hate that studios “reinvent” films by making them 3D so, so long after they were originally made. It just feels like a cash grab. Jurassic Park was not meant to be seen in 3D, and yet that’s what some of the advertising for this re-release are telling us! I call shenanigans on the studio! Still, those shenanigans should get people into the theatre to check out the Velociraptors and the T-Rex. I’d bet on Jurassic Park 3D to garner $17 million (keeping it in line with Titanic 3D and Finding Nemo 3D) at the box office and a third place finish.
The third week of release for both The Croods and Olympus Has Fallen should see them tail off to $17 million and $7 million respectively.
Interestingly, Danny Boyle’s new film, Trance, sees limited release in just four theatres in both New York and Los Angeles. If I were living in either one of those cities, I’d be checking out that flick. Danny Boyle’s got my attention every time.
So, to recap, here are the predictions for this weekend:
1) Evil Dead – $25 million
2) G.I. Joe: Retaliation – $21 million
3) Jurassic Park 3D – $17 million
4) The Croods – $17 million
5) Olympus Has Fallen – $7 million
But, as Jurassic Park has so memorably told us: Objects in mirror are closer than they appear. On Sunday night, we’ll find out who made the money and how wrong – or right – I was!
Until then, see you in the popcorn line-up!
I think you hit the nail on the head with this prediction 🙂