Well, it wasn’t a great weekend of predictions for me, even though some of my grosses were close, if not the placings. But while I’ll still be able to sleep at night, I think the studios behind this weekend’s new releases will have some difficulty trying to rest soundly, since no new films made any sort of impact at the box office. Here’s what happened:
Strong word of mouth for family film Dolphin Tale actually moved it up the box office this weekend, all the way to the top spot with #14 million. A great number for the film, which hit its budget and now is on the way to being profitable. I had predicted a fifth place finish with $12 million.
My prediction for Moneyball’s gross this weekend was spot on – $12.5. What I got wrong, however, was where it would land in the top 5. With so many new releases out, I figured the movie would drop from second to fourth place. Instead, it stayed steady at number two for the second weekend in a row.
Coming in third was the reissue of The Lion King in 3D with $11 million, bringing its rerelease haul to a extremely solid $79 million. I had predicted a first place showing with $15 million.
Debuting in fourth place was 50/50, staring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen. On Friday, I had predicted that the film wouldn’t have a strong opening based on the fact that it’s a comedy about cancer, which can sometimes be a hard sell. I did think that with Rogen as one of the leads that 50/50 would at least gross $13.5 million. Instead, the movie could only muster up $8.85 million. Not a great showing, which means 50/50 will be out of the top 5 next weekend.
Debuting in fifth place was Courageous, a Christian-themed film that I didn’t even make a prediction on. The film grossed $8.8 million from only 1,100 theaters.
This means that the other two new releases I did make predictions on didn’t land in the top 5. Dream House hit number six, which is where I thought it would land, although I had thought it would see $9 million, while it actually only brought in $8 million. As for What’s Your Number?, that film was a total bomb, debuting in the eighth spot with a paltry $5.6 million. I was expecting better from the Anna Farris and Chris Evans staring vehicle, predicting a second place showing with $14 million. I bet Chris Evans is glad he signed on for that Captain America role.
So, to recap, here were our predictions:
1) The Lion King – $15 million
2) What’s Your Number? – $14 million
3) 50/50 – $13.5 million
4) Moneyball – $12.5 million
5) Dolphin Tale – $12 million
And here’s how the weekend turned out:
1) Dolphin Tale – $14 million
2) Moneyball – $12.5 million
3) The Lion King – $11 million
4) 50/50 – $8.85 million
5) Courageous – $8.8 million
Next weekend, The Ides of March and Real Steel look to claim the top spot at the box office. Check back here on Friday to see our predictions!
