Biff Bam Pop’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of September 30th

Three big new movies are hitting theatres this weekend, but I think that there’s less than a 50/50 chance that one of them will top the box office. See what I did there? Let’s take a look at what’s on screens and where I think they’ll land when the dust settles Sunday.

50/50 stars Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in the story of Adam, who is diagnosed with cancer and goes about telling his friend (Rogen), girlfriend (Bryce Dallas Howard) and mother (Anjelica Huston) before entering treatment. The¬†film is based on the true story of its screenwriter, Will Reiser. 50/50 has been getting strong reviews, especially ¬†Gordon-Levitt, who has become an understated player in Hollywood. What 50/50 has going against it is the fact that comedies about dying aren’t necessarily box office draws. Having Rogen in the cast should help the films chances at a decent opening, since he adds the definite comedic element. I’m predicting a third place opening with #$13.5 million.

What’s Your Number? is a romantic comedy staring Anna Farris and Chris Evans about a woman who looks back at her past twenty relationships and wonders if one of the men in her past was her true love. I think you already know how this one is going to end, right? Regardless, What’s Your Number? is the only female scewing release right now. I’m predicting a second place showing, with $14 million.

Dream House is a suspense/horror film staring the knock-out cast of Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and Naomi Watts. Weisz and Craig play a married couple who move their family into a new home, only to discover the house was the scene of a grizzly murder. While there’s no questioning the acting chops of the stars, none of them are big box office draws (look no further than Cowboys and Aliens, right Mr. Craig?) Heading into October and Halloween season, I think people are looking for a horror fix; I just don’t think Dream House will be it. Look for a debut outside the top 5 (likely 6, with $9 million).

As for the rest of the top 5, I think The Lion King is going to continue its winning ways. I made the mistake of thinking the film was out of theatres after two weeks, but it is still in wide release this weekend. I’m predicting it will hold onto first place with $15 million. Moneyball and Dolphin Tale have both been performing well throughout the week, so it will be close battle between those two for the final spots in the top 5. Look for Moneyball to hit fourth place with $12.5 million and Dolphin Tale to be right on its tail with $12 million.

So, to recap, here are our predictions:

1) The Lion King – $15 million
2) What’s Your Number? – $14 million
3) 50/50 – $13.5 million
4) Moneyball – $12.5 million
5) Dolphin Tale – $12 million

Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the box office numbers turn out!

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