Well Avengers, you’ve had a great run, but it’s time to bow out of the top spot at the box office this weekend and make way for a new film at the top of the heap. Though it may be about a decade late, there’s no question that Men In Black 3 is going to top the box office this weekend. How much will it bring in? Here’s our prediction:
Will Smith, Tommy Lee Jones and director Barry Sonnenfield return to the Men In Black franchise, with Josh Brolin joining them as a young version of Jones’ character, Agent K. The trailers have been hugely entertaining, and while the last film was released back in 2002 (and wasn’t particularly loved by critics or fans), I do think there’s still juice left in this franchise (unlike our Scotty G, who predicted not so great things for Men In Black 3 a few weeks ago in his summer movie preview here). Just how much juice is the question. Will Smith is a big money star and it’s been a few years since he’s been seen on the big screen, so we’re going to see a strong opening weekend performance from Men In Black 3. Look for a first place showing and a 3-day gross of $75 million.
Also opening this weekend is the horror film Chernobyl Diaries, which stands very little chance of resonating with audiences in the shadow of Men In Black 3 and the still mighty Avengers. With no stars and a campaign based solely on writer/producer Oren Peli’s Paranormal Activity pedigree, I believe we’re looking at a fifth place finish with $10 million.
As for the rest of the top five, The Avengers will drop to second place in it’s fourth weekend in release, but should still manage to bring in a healthy sum, somewhere in the neighbourhood of $39 million. Look for Battleship to sink to third place with $16 million while The Dictator should find itself in the fourth spot with $13 million. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either film flip flop, mind you.
So, to recap, here are our predictions (by the way, these are 3-day predictions, though it is a 4-day weekend in the U.S.):
1) Men In Black 3 – $75 million
2) Marvel’s The Avengers – $39 million
3) Battleship – $16 million
4) The Dictator – $13 million
5) Chernobyl Diaries – $10 million
Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!