So, upfront, I’m writing this box office prediction a week out of the release of Avengers: Endgame’s release, as I’ll be away at Disney with the Princess. Oh, we’ll be it seeing, mind you. In fact, by the time you read this, we’ll have already sat through the film, as we had tickets for a Thursday night screening. But seeing as I’m of the mind that Endgame is going deliver the biggest opening in North American box office history, I wanted to throw my two cents into the ring.
Last year, Avengers: Infinity War debuted with a record-breaking $257 million, taking down the previous number one, Star Wars: The Force Awaken’s $247 million. A few years ago, it would have been almost unthinkable that anything could be bigger than a Star Wars film, but Marvel has now spent more than a decade building a so-far unsinkable brand based on not just colourful characters and action, but strong storytelling that’s arguably unprecedented in depth and quality.
I’m a Marvel Zombie, unapologetically and proudly. I love seeing these characters up on the big screen and I get chills talking about what I consider to be the epic filmmaking of Avengers: Infinity War. I also have no problems not loving everything the studio puts out. The Ant-Man films are fun but frivolous, the second and third Iron Man films don’t do much for me. And that’s ok! We don’t need to love everything.
Avengers: Endgame is an entirely different beast for the MCU though, as it is supposedly bringing to a close the stories of some of the key characters that have made Marvel Studios the behemoth its become. While you never know if this is the last time we’ll see Robert Downey Jr as Tony Stark and Chris Evans as Captain America, there’s a lot of fair assumptions that this will be it. That alone is enough to bring in a massive audience. But throw in Brie Larson’s Captain Marvel, and the real question of how the Avengers can undo Thanos’ fingers snap of doom, and you have a recipe for what I think will be the biggest opening in North American box office history.
And not by a little.
Pre-sale ticket orders were so massive that ticket sites across North America crashed for hours with fans trying to get their seats. It took me four and a half hours to gets ours, which is ridiculous, but also indicative of the demand for this final Avengers film. Additional screens and showings have been added, so even though Endgame’s 3 hours, 2 minutes run time should theoretically cut down on box office because of limited showings, with the aforementioned additions, I don’t think it will stop Avengers: Endgame from making $295 million this weekend.
As Star-Lord would say, that’s a lot of chedda-cheese.
As for the rest of the top five this weekend, does it even matter? Nothing will come remotely close, and it’s actually a little difficult in predicting how low things will go for every other film out there. Look for The Curse of La Llorona to be in second place with $10 million. Shazam will be in third with $8 million, followed by Breakthrough in fourth with $6 million. Marvel Studios’ Captain Marvel will close out the top five with $4.5 million.
So, to recap, here are our predictions:
1) Avengers: Endgame – $295 million
2) The Curse of La Llorona – $10 million
3) Shazam – $8 million
4) Breakthrough – $6 million
5) Marvel Studios’ Captain Marvel – $4.5 million
Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!