Will Insurgent diverge from the success of the first film?

It’s the last weekend of March Break, so theaters should be packed, likely with families catching up on last week’s big release. But there are a few new films looking to score as well. Will they? Here’s our predictions:

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The big new release is the second film in the Divergent series, Insurgent. The first film did strong business last year, bringing in $150 million in North America. Those aren’t The Hunger Games numbers, but it’s still enough to hope for a decent showing for Insurgent. Typically, you want to see your numbers go up with a second film, so that’s what Insurgent needs to do. However, I’m just not sure the hype is there. On that note, look for a first place showing with $54 million, the same amount Divergent debut with in 2014.

Also debuting this weekend is The Gunman, with Sean Penn and directed by Pierre Morel, who brought us the first Taken film. To me, this appears to be a desperate attempt by Penn to move into the action hero role, much like Liam Neeson did (though with no desperation on his part). Penn, while a solid actor, has never screamed action, and he’s not necessarily a box office draw. Look for a fourth place showing with $9 million.

As for the rest of the top five, Cinderella will fall to second place with $35 million. Run All Night will be in third place with $9.5 million, while another new release, the faith-based Do You Believe? will close things out in fifth with $7 million.

So, to recap, here are our predictions:

1) insurgent – $54 million
2) Cinderella – $35 million
3) Run All Night – $9.5 million
4) The Gunman – $9 million
5) Do You Believe – $7 million

Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!

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