Biff Bam Pop’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of October 21st

Three new releases are in theatres this weekend, and we’re pretty much guaranteed to see one of them hit the top of the box office.  Let’s take a look at all the activity happening you can expect to see:

For the third Halloween in a row there’s a Paranormal Activity film in theatres (and it’s worth noting, it’s the first time since 2003 that there isn’t a Saw film out). What was a low-budget phenomenon back in 2009 has become a smart and viable film franchise that relies on genuine thrills and chills rather than excess gore to scare audiences. Last year, Paranormal Activity 2 had an opening weekend of more than $40 million. With The Thing underperforming, the weekend is wide open for Paranormal Activity 3 (another prequel like the second one), which should bring in a healthy $34 million this weekend.

The Three Musketeers return to theatres this weekend, in a new version directed Paul W.S. Anderson (the Resident Evil films, Death Race) and staring Logan Lerman, Ray Stevenson, and Milla Jovovitch. This time, the story is in 3D, which along with the presence of teen actor Lerman could bring in a younger audience not old enough to see Paranormal Activity 3. Anderson isn’t the critics favourite director by a long shot, so bad reviews may work against The Three Musketeers. I’m predicting a third place finish with $11 million.

The third notable film out this weekend is Johnny English Reborn, a British comedy staring Mr. Bean himself, Rowan Atkinson. The movie has already done gangbusters overseas, grossing $85 million. I don’t think we’ll see anything near those numbers, since Atkinson is far more of a cult, niche figure rather than any sort of film draw.  Look for it to miss the top five with a $4 million gross.

As for the rest of the top five, Real Steel continues to do play well with families and this weekend should be no different. I’m predicting a second place showing with $14 million. The film has been battling for first place with Footloose all week, but this weekend likely will change that, as I’m predicting that Footloose will bring in $9 million to land in fourth place. The Ides of March should be another holdover from previous weeks, rounding out the top five with $7 million.

So, to recap, here are our predictions:

1) Paranormal Activity 3 – $34 million
2) Real Steel – $14 million
3) The Three Musketeers – $11 million
4) Footloose – $9 million 
5) The Ides of March – $7 million

Check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!

Leave a Reply