After a horrible set of predictions last week, I’m seriously nervous about trying to figure out how all of this week’s new release will perform. None of them have any real mainstream buzz, while The Help has been on a role since its release. What sort of effect will all these factors amount to this weekend? Let’s find out:
Don’t Be Afraid Of The Dark is a new horror film, produced by Guillermo del Toro and starring Guy Pearce and Katie Holmes. A remake of a relatively obscure 1973 television movie, the film is a good, old-fashioned haunted house story complete with child. Unlike the huge promotion for last week’s big bomb, Fright Night, I haven’t seen much in the way of commercials or trailers for Don’t Be Afraid Of The Dark. Throw in the fact that neither Pearce of Holmes are box office draws, and I have a feeling audiences won’t be walking into the dark of theatres showing this film. Look for an $9 million gross and a fourth place finish.
Colombiana is an action film staring Zoe Saldana as a woman whose parents were killed when she was a child and who has grown up into an assassin determined to avenge their deaths. Directed by Olivier Megaton (spectacular last name, that), the commercials for this film have been seriously eye-catching, certainly more than anything I’ve seen for Don’t Be Afraid Of The Dark, and audiences have been receptive to the majority of action films that have been released this summer. While not necessarily a star that can open a film (yet), Saldana looks appealing in Colombiana and I think she could draw younger audiences into the theatre. I’m predicting a third place opening and a gross of $10.5 million.
The final new release of the weekend comes in the form of another R-rated comedy – Our Idiot Brother, staring Paul Rudd as a brother who interferes in the lives of his three sisters, played by Emily Mortimer, Zoey Deschanel and Elizabeth Banks. I think Paul Rudd is really pushing it with his constant choice of comedic roles the last few years and I have a feeling audiences are getting tired of it as well. Combine that with the glut of comedies this summer and I don’t think Our Idiot Brother will make much of an impression at the box office this weekend. I predict a fifth place finish and an $8 million gross.
As for the top two spots, I’m predicting we’ll see the audience and adult pleasing The Help hold onto number one with a $16 million gross, while Rise of the Planet Of The Apes will continue it’s great run, placing second again this week with $13 million.
So to wrap up, here are our predictions:
1) The Help – $16 million
2) Rise of the Planet of the Apes – $13
3) Columbiana – $10.5 million
4) Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark – $9 million
5) Our Idiot Brother – $8 million
Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the numbers turn out!