I had an incredible weekend of predictions, as I got all five films in order at the box office. The most I was off in any of my predictions was $2.6 million. The Other Guys was able to dethrone Inception from the top of the box office while Step Up 3-D debuted with decent numbers. Here’s how the box office broke down:
Debuting in 1st place is the action-comedy The Other Guys with a gross of $35.6 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $33 million). The Other Guys had a per theatre average of $9,751, which is the highest per theatre average of any film in release as of this writing. The star power of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg definitely helped The Other Guys have a higher opening weekend than last weekend’s comedy Dinner for Schmucks (as that film debuted with $23.5 million). Next weekend The Other Guys will face some competition from the action film The Expendables and the teen comedy Scott Pilgrim vs. the World, but I think it will hold its own, although it’s not going to be a very profitable film for Columbia Pictures as the budget for The Other Guys is rumoured to be around $100 million. Still a solid debut for the film, and a nice rebound for Will Ferrell after last summer’s Land of the Lost as well as for Mark Wahlberg as his last major film was Max Payne (I thought he was a supporting character in The Lovely Bones). The opening weekend gross of The Other Guys almost equaled the total gross of both Land of the Lost ($49.4 million) and Max Payne ($40.6 million). Good premise + good marketing = good opening weekend, so all involved with The Other Guys should feel pretty satisfied with this weekend’s gross.
Dropping to 2nd place after a three week reign at the top of the box office is Inception with a gross of $18.6 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $18.4 million). The per theatre average for Inception was $5,442, and the film was down 32.3% from last weekend. To have a per theatre average above $5,000 in a film’s fourth weekend shows you that the film has staying power, and audiences are going back to see it again and again. Inception might not be the highest grossing film of the summer, but I think it is going to be the most remembered film of Summer 2010, and that says a lot considering how highly Toy Story 3 is thought of. After four weekends, Inception has grossed $227.7 million.
Debuting in 3rd place is the dance film Step Up 3-D with a gross of $15.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $16 million). Step Up 3-D had a per theatre average of $6,366. The film had the lowest opening weekend in the franchise, so you have to think that if the film was not in 3-D, it would be even worse. Here’s how all three films in the franchise did on their opening weekend:
2006 – Step Up – $20.6 million opening weekend
2008 – Step Up 2 the Streets – $18.9 million opening weekend
2010 – Step Up 3-D – $15.5 million opening weekend
The film met expectations, as no one expects big things from the Step Up franchise, so it’s hard to be disappointed about the film. The budget for the film is rumoured to be $30 million, so the film should be able to make back its money, but it won’t be a big earner for Disney.
Dropping from 3rd place to 4th place is the Angelina Jolie thriller Salt with a gross of $11.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $11.2 million). Salt had a per theatre average of $3,346 and the film was down 43% from last weekend. The film is definitely going to be knocked out of the top five next weekend, but the film has done quite well, and will be crossing the $100 million mark in the next week or so (something that both The A-Team and Knight and Day have failed to do). Like I said last weekend, I doubt anyone who said that Salt would out gross The A-Team or Knight and Day when they made predictions about summer films, but that is the case and the film further solidifies Angelina Jolie’s hold on being the most bankable female action star. After three weekends, Salt has grossed $91.9 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 5th place is the Steve Carell//Paul Rudd comedy Dinner for Schmucks with a gross of $10.5 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $11 million). The film had a per theatre average of $3,495, and was down 55.4% from last weekend. The Other Guys definitely stole the comedy the audience this weekend, but it is not a good sign for Dinner for Schmucks with the drop from weekend to weekend being so high. It is going to be out of the top five next weekend and will soon be forgotten about by movie goers. I think the film will find an audience on DVD, and I don’t expect it to be in theatres for that many more weeks. After 10 days, Dinner for Schmucks has grossed $46.7 million.
Despicable Me was the #6 film with a gross of $9.4 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $9.6 million). Despicable Me had a per theatre average of $2,754 and was down 39.4% from last weekend. After 5 weekends, Despicable Me has grossed $209.4 million.
Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore was the #7 film with a gross of $6.9 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $5.6 million). Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore had a per theatre average of $1,865 and was down 43.7% from last weekend. After 2 weekends, Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore has grossed $389.6 million.
Charlie St. Cloud was the #8 film with a gross of $4.7 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $6.7 million). Charlie St. Cloud had a per theatre average of $1,725 and was down 62% from last weekend. After 2 weekends, Charlie St. Cloud has grossed $389.6 million.
Toy Story 3 was the #9 film with a gross of $3 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $3.2 million). Toy Story 3 had a per theatre average of $1,778 and was down 40.5% from last weekend. After 8 weekends, Toy Story 3 has grossed $396.3 million.
The Kids Are All Right was the #10 film with a gross of $2.6 million (I did not make a prediction for this film). The Kids Are All Right had a per theatre average of $2,662 and was down 26.1% from last weekend (lowest percentage drop of any film in the top ten). After 5 weekends, The Kids Are All Right has grossed $14 million.
In limited release:
Middle Men – This film that stars Luke Wilson and is about the beginning of internet porn in the 90’s grossed $305,000 from 212 theatres for a per theatre average of $1,210.
Twelve – This film is directed by Joel Schumacher and stars Chace Crawford and follows the life of a young man grossed $107,000 from 231 theatres for a per theatre average of $463.
Flipped – This film is directed by Rob Reiner and is about two eighth graders who fall in love grossed $234,000 from 45 theatres for a per theatre average of $5,200.
The Wildest Dream – The film about the first man to attempt to climb the summit of Mount Everest and the man who found his remains on the mountain grossed $64,600 from 12 theatres for a per theatre average of $5,383.
Lebanon – This film is about the events of the first Lebanon war and it grossed $16,700 from 2 theatres for a per theatre average of $8,350.
Cairo Time, The Disappearance of Alice Creed, and The Oxford Murders have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
The Other Guys – $33 million
Inception – $18.4 million
Step Up 3-D – $16 million
Salt – $11.2 million
Dinner for Schmucks – $11 million
And here are the actual numbers:
The Other Guys – $35.6 million
Inception – $18.6 million
Step Up 3-D – $15.5 million
Salt – $11.1 million
Dinner for Schmucks – $10.5 million
My predictions compared to the actual top five films were off by $3.9 million.
Next weekend, The Other Guys has a trio of films looking to dethrone it at the box office. Julia Roberts stars in Eat Pray Love, Sylvester Stallone leads an all-star cast in the action flick The Expendables and teenagers are looking forward to seeing Michael Cera in Scott Pilgrim vs. the World. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
