It’s another battle of the sexes at the box office this weekend as two new releases target each gender. Men are looking forward to The Other Guys with Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg while women have the dance sequel Step Up 3-D. Will either of them be able to stop Inception from being the #1 film for a fourth weekend in a row at the box office? Here’s how I think the box office will break down this weekend.
Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg team up in the action-comedy The Other Guys. The film follows a mismatched pair of cops who are fighting crime while trying to become as popular as another pair of cops in their precinct. Action-comedy is a genre that both Wahlberg and Ferrell are not known for being in, and it will be interesting to see how audiences respond to the film at the box office. Here are some films I used to come up with my comparison for the weekend:
2009 – Land of the Lost – $18.8 million opening weekend
2008 – Step Brothers – $30.9 million opening weekend
2008 – Semi-Pro – $15 million opening weekend
2008 – Max Payne – $17.6 million opening weekend
2007 – Blades of Glory – $33 million opening weekend
2007 – Shooter – $14.5 million opening weekend
2006 – Invincible – $17 million opening weekend
2006 – Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby – $47 million opening weekend
2005 – Four Brothers – $21.1 million opening weekend
2004 – Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy – $28.4 million opening weekend
2003 – The Italian Job – $19.4 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $23.8 million
Dinner for Schmucks opened last weekend and grossed $23.5 million. Also with The Other Guys opening the weekend after another big comedy film, people might not be in the mood for comedy. Ferrell and Wahlberg are pretty consistent performers, and I do think The Other Guys will have a stronger opening than Dinner for Schmucks as there is more star power, I think the premise is better, and the ad campaign is funny. 29 reviews have been posted at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, and the film has a 75% positive rating. The Other Guys is going to be released in more than 3,400 theatres, so with the high theatre count, and the funny premise, it will open at #1 with $33 million.
The other new release is the dance sequel Step Up 3-D. The ad campaign basically tells the movie about a girl hanging out with a dance crew, who falls in love, and has to “step up” to win a dance competition. The big hook of course is the film being in 3-D, but as we found out last weekend with Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore, just because a film is in 3-D, it does not mean it will do well at the box office. Here’s how the other Step Up films did at the box office on their opening weekend:
2008 – Step Up 2 the Streets – $18.9 million opening weekend
2006 – Step Up – $20.6 million opening weekend
The sequel had a smaller opening weekend and finished with a smaller gross than the original, and I think that trend will continue with this film, as the franchise has seen better days and feels more like it should be a Direct-To-DVD release. 26 reviews have been posted at Rotten Tomatoes as of this rating, and the film has a 63% positive rating. The film is not getting a very big release, around 2,200 theatres, as I think Disney is aware that this will be a hard sell at the box office. I’m predicting that Step Up 3-D will gross $16 million and finish in 3rd place.
With The Other Guys and Step Up 3-D making the top five, I’m predicting that Despicable Me and Charlie St. Cloud will be knocked out of the top five. Here’s how I see rest of the top five unfolding:
Inception’s run at the top of the box office will come to an end this weekend, but it will definitely be the #2 film at the box office. The film suffered its highest drop last weekend when the gross was down 35.7%, but I think it will suffer a smaller decline this weekend, as I’m predicting a drop of 33% for a gross of $18.4 million.
Salt continues to be the action film of choice this summer, but it might lose a little of its audience because of The Other Guys being a quasi-action film. I’m predicting a drop of 42% giving Salt a gross of $11.2 million and a 4th place finish.
Dinner for Schmucks had a good, but not great opening weekend, and I think it will be in some trouble this weekend, because of the direct competition of The Other Guys as much as I like Steve Carell and Paul Rudd, Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg are bigger names, and I think audiences will want to try out a new comedy. I think the drop will be about 53% giving Dinner for Schmucks a gross of $11 million and a 5th place.
Gru and his Minions will drop 38% giving Despicable Me a gross of $9.6 million and a 6th place finish.
Charlie St. Cloud will finish in 7th place, as I’m predicting a drop of 46%, giving it a gross of $6.7 million.
Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore will finish in 8th place, as I’m predicting a drop of 54%, giving it a gross of $5.6 million.
Toy Story 3 will finish in 9th place, as I’m predicting a drop of 37%, giving it a gross of $3.2 million.
Grown Ups will round out the top ten, as I’m predicting a drop of 42%, giving it a gross of $2.6 million.
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
Middle Men – This film stars Luke Wilson and is about the beginning of internet porn in the 90’s. The film will be released in around 200 theatres count and has a 65% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
The Disappearance of Alice Creed – This film stars Gemma Arterton and is about a girl being kidnapped. The film will be released in around 12 theatres and has a 79% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Cairo Time – This film stars Patricia Clarkson and is about a woman who travels to Cairo. This film is being released in 5 theatres and has a 71% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Lebanon – This film is about the events of the first Lebanon war. This film does not have an official theatre count and has an 88% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
The Oxford Murders – This film stars Elijah Wood and is about the vicious murder of an elderly woman in Oxford. This film does not have an official theatre count and has a 20% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
The Other Guys – $33 million
Inception – $18.4 million
Step Up 3-D – $16 million
Salt – $11.2 million
Dinner for Schmucks – $11 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!
