Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

This weekend Pixar had the strongest debut in their history with Toy Story 3 while Jonah Hex continued the trend of summer films that have disapponted at the box office. The older films (with the exception of Shrek Forever After) held their own this weekend against the Toy Story 3 juggernaut, and lifted the box office to a very strong frame. My predictions were good in terms of being close (with the very notable exception of Jonah Hex), as I picked four of the five films that ended up being in the top five, with three of them in order. The film that I didn’t predict to make the top five had a gross near where I thought it would end up, so with the exception of Jonah Hex, I had a great weekend of predictions at the box office. Here’s how the weekend broke down:

Debuting in 1st place was Toy Story 3 with an amazing gross of $109 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $105 million.) Toy Story 3 had a per theatre average of $27,061 which was the highest in the top ten, and second highest of any film in release this weekend. With the $109 million opening weekend, Toy Story 3 became the record holder for highest grossing opening weekend in Pixar’s history. Here’s the breakdown:

1) Toy Story 3 – $109 million opening weekend

2) The Incredibles – $70.4 million opening weekend

3) Finding Nemo – $70.2 million opening weekend

4) Up – $68.1 million opening weekend

5) Wall-E – $63 million opening weekend

6) Monsters Inc. – $62.1 million opening weekend

7) Cars – $60.1 million opening weekend

8) Ratatouille – $47 million opening weekend

9) Toy Story – $29.1 million opening weekend

Note: Toy Story 2 and A Bug’s Life were only released on one screen on their opening weekend, so they are excluded from the list (The first weekend in wide release for both films were nowhere close to Toy Story 3’s).

If estimates hold on Monday, here are some of the records Toy Story 3 can lay claim to:

– Highest opening weekend in the month of June

– Second highest animated and computer animated opening weekend gross of all-time

– Second highest opening weekend gross of all-time for a film released in 3-D

– Twelfth highest gross on opening day of all-time

– Tenth highest opening weekend gross of all-time

Those are some absolutely amazing stats that Toy Story 3 has achieved this weekend, and I think there is more to come. I believe that Toy Story 3 is the first blockbuster since 2008’s The Dark Knight where expectations have been met and exceeded (I still find that Avatar is polorizing audiences, although it has set the standard in terms of special effects and 3-D). Audiences love Toy Story 3, and the future for the franchise looks golden. It really does not have a serious challenge in the animation world until Despicable Me comes out July 9th, so I really think that Toy Story 3 has a legitimate chance of becoming the highest grossing summer film of 2010. It’s going to take a lot to pass Iron Man 2, and I’m sure The Twillight Saga: Eclipse will have a monstrous opening weekend, but I think Toy Story 3 might surprise people when the final numbers come in. We’ll have to wait and see. One final note, the top ten films grossed $184,195,000 this weekend, which means that Toy Story 3 represented 59.1% of the total gross in the top ten. Very impressive if I do say so myself.

The Karate Kid dropped from 1st place to 2nd place, but still had a solid gross of $29 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $32.8 million). The Karate Kid had a per theatre average of $7,917 which is great for a film in its second weekend, and only dropped 47.9% from last weekend, which is also good news because most films that drop less than 50% on their second weekend show that audiences are still interested in the film. The Jaden Smith/Jackie Chan collaboration is just printing money at this point, because it made back its budget on its opening weekend gross, so The Karate Kid should play well throughout the summer. At some point this week, it will also become the highest grossing film in the franchise, surpassing The Karate Kid II’s gross of $115.1 million (the original Karate Kid made $90.8 million back in 1984). After two weekends, The Karate Kid has grossed $106.2 million.

Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is The A-Team with a gross of $13.7 million (I predicted a 4th place finish with a gross of $14 million). The A-Team had a per theatre average of $3,887, and was down 46.3% from last weekend. The percentage drop is good news, but the per theatre average is not good. Audiences seem to like the film, with the drop being below 50% on its second weekend, but the bad news is that the film is not appealing to the masses with such a low per theatre average. The film is a lot of fun, and should do well when it gets released on DVD, but in the meantime, it is considered to be a bit of a disappointment this summer, especially when the budget is rumoured to be around $110 million, and there is no way it is going to reach that gross domestically. After two weekends, The A-Team has grossed $49.7 million.

In a major surprise to me Get Him to the Greek was the 4th place film for the second weekend in a row with a gross of $6.1 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $5 million). Get Him to the Greek had a per theatre average of $2,360 and was down 38.5% from last weekend. What’s also good news for the film is that it is holding better than its counterpart Forgetting Sarah Marshall did after three weekends. Here are some of the numbers to prove that fact:

Get Him to the Greek – 38.5% drop on its third weekend

Forgetting Sarah Marshall – 45% drop on its third weekend

Get Him to the Greek – $47.8 million after three weekends

Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $44.7 million after three weekends

Forgetting Sarah Marshall finished its run with $62.8 million, and last week I said that I would expect Get Him to the Greek to finish just below that number. If the numbers this weekend continue to hold in the coming weeks for Get Him to the Greek, then Get Him to the Greek will become the more successful film (I think they will be neck and neck when it comes down to it, and I’m still giving the edge to Forgetting Sarah Marshall). As mentioned above, the total gross for Get Him to the Greek is $47.8 million, which is great news as the film was budgeted around $40 million (Forgetting Sarah Marshall will be the more profitable of the two films as that film was budgeted around $30 million).

Shrek Forever After drops from 3rd place to 5th place with a gross of $5.5 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $6.9 million). Shrek Forever After had a per theatre average of $1,721 and was down 65% from last weekend. Here’s how the Shrek films stack up o ntheir fourth weekend:

2001 – Shrek – $13.1 million fifth weekend gross – Down 20.2%

2004 – Shrek 2 – $13.9 million fifth weekend gross – Down 40.2%

2007 – Shrek the Third – $9 million fifth weekend gross – Down 41.2%

2010 – Shrek Forever After – $5.5 million fifth weekend gross – Down 65%

There is no good news for Shrek Forever After because it shows how much the opening of Toy Story 3 hurt Shrek Forever After and it will not be able to recover that ground to surpass the original Shrek for third place in the franchise. Here are the total grosses for the Shrek franchise:

1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million

2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million

3) Shrek – $267.6 million

4) Shrek Forever After $222.9 million after five weekends

There is no way that Shrek Forever After surpasses the $267.7 million of Shrek so Shrek Forever After will be the lowest grossing film in the franchise. Even though the film is being billed as the final chapter, the numbers support the business decision to put this franchise to rest.

The rest of the top ten finished up like this:

Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time stayed in 6th place for a second weekend in a row with a gross of $5.2 million (I did not make a prediction for this film). Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time had a per theatre average of $2,024 and was down 18.7% from the last weekend, which was the lowest percentage drop in the top ten. After four weekends, Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time has taken in $80.5 million.

Dropping from 5th place to 7th place is Killers with a gross of $5.1 million (I predicted a gross of $3.6 million and a 7th place finish). Killers had a per theatre average of $1,947 and was down 36.3% from last weekend. After three weekends, Killers has grossed $39.3 million.

The opening of Toy Story 3 overshadowed the #8 film of the weekend, as Jonah Hex had one of the most disappointing opening weekends for a comic-book film. Jonah Hex openned with $5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $18 million). Jonah Hex had an absolutely horrendous per theatre average of $1,800 from 2,825 theatres. You realize how bad a film is doing when the theatre count is higher then the per theatre average. Most films take a while to hit that dubious distinction, but Jonah Hex did it immediately. It was not the worst opening weekend for a comic book property as Punisher: War Zone opened in 2008 with a gross of $4.2 million from 2,508 theatres, giving Punisher: War Zone a per theatre average of $1,703. So the two films are very similar in that regard. Jonah Hex had a lot of negativity towards it. First was the major re-shoots the film went under, second was the critical reaction which was absolutely aweful, and lastly is that the finished product is an absolute mess (I can speak to this being one of the people who saw the film this weekend). As much as I like the cast in Josh Brolin, John Malkovich and Megan Fox, they are not box office draws. I thought the fact that the film was based on a comic would bring fans in, but that did not happen. Punisher: War Zone only lasted in theatres for three weekends and I suspect that Jonah Hex will be in theatres just as long. Just to add salt to the wound, the budget of Jonah Hex is rumoured to be around $80 million, so there is no way that Warner Bros. is making a profit on this film.

Iron Man 2 stayed in 9th place for a 2nd weekend in a row with a gross of $2,675 million (I did not make a prediction on this film). Iron Man 2 had a per theatre average of $1,659 and was down 40.8% from last weekend. After seven weekends Iron Man 2 has grossed $304.7 million (the original Iron Man finished its run with $318.4 million).

Marmaduke dropped from 7th place to 10 place this weekend with a grossof $2.65 million (I did not make a prediction on this film). Marmaduke had a per theatre average of $1,062 and was down 55.9% from last weekend. After three weekends Marmaduke has grossed $27.8 million.

In other box office news:

Sex and the City 2 was knocked out of the top ten in its fourth weekend (finishing in 11th place) and Robin Hood finished in 12th place. Robin Hood did reach a milestone earlier in the week as it surpassed the $100 million mark. Its total gross stands at $101.9 million.

Here’s the How to Train Your Dragon report for the weekend to see if it can succeed in its quest to become the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history. This weekend How to Train Your Dragon finished with a gross of $167,000. Its total gross stands at $214.4 million, and it is around $700,000 away from surpassing Kung Fu Panda for the title of highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history. Here’s the list:

1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million

2) Shrek the Third – $322.7 million

3) Shrek – $267.6 million

4) Shrek Forever After – $222.9 million

5) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million

6) How to Train Your Dragon – $214.7 million

In limited release:

Raavan – The film is about an outlaw who kidnaps the wife of a policeman (who was responsible for the death of his sister), and ends up falling in love with her grossed $551,000 from 119 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $4,630.

Cyrus – The film that stars John C. Reilly, Marisa Tomei, and Jonah Hill and is about an older man getting into a relationship, but has to battle her overprotective son in the process grossed $180,300 from 4 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $45,075, which gives it the highest per theatre average of any release this weekend. A very impressive debut.

I Am Love – The film that stars tilda Swinton and is about a family dealing with their father’s death grossed $125,000 from 8 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $15,625.

8: The Morman Proposition – The documentary about the church’s involvement in Proposition 8 in California (for those that don’t know, Proposition 8 was California’s anti-gay marriage legislation) grossed $48,100 from 16 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $3,006.

The Killer Inside Me, Let It Rain, The Nature of Existance, Stonewall Uprising and Wah Do Dem have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

1. Toy Story 3 – $105 million

2. The Karate Kid – $18 million

3. Jonah Hex – $14 million

4. The A-Team – $14 million

5. Shrek Forever After – $6.9 million

And here are the actual numbers:

1. Toy Story 3 – $109 million

2. The Karate Kid – $29 million

3. The A-Team – $13.7 million

4. Get Him to the Greek – $6.1 million

5. Shrek Forever After – $5.5 million

My predictions compared to the actual top 5 films were off by $10.6 million. Next weekend, Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz invade theatres with the action-comedy Kinght and Day and Adam Sandler brings us Grown-Ups. Check out Biff Bam Pop! next Friday to read my predictions!

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