Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of March 12th, 2010


Three new films go into wide release this weekend, with the enormous challenge of dethroning the juggernaut that is Alice in Wonderland.  I’ll be blunt. No new release has a hope of dethroning the defending champ this weekend, but we should see a good battle for positioning between 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place.  Here are my predictions at the box office for this weekend.

Matt Damon and Paul Greengrass team up for the third time to bring us the war-time thriller Green Zone.  War movies are tricky to predict, as lately audiences do not seem to want to see films about war or terrorism.  Even the critically acclaimed The Hurt Locker did not make a dent at the box office in its release.  The previous films that Damon and Greengrass have done together were The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum, but those films were part of a franchise with a built-in fan base, which they will not have this time around.  Reviews have been mixed, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 50% as of this writing.  Opening in 3,003 theatres, I’m predicting a 3rd place opening for Green Zone with a gross of $17 million.

Jay Baruchel gets the chance to be the star in a comedy with the film She’s Out of My League.  The film is about an ordinary guy, who gets the chance to date a very attractive girl.  I liked the trailer for the film, which should lure some people, and the fact that it is the only major comedy that appeals to teens (even though it is rated “R”), it has a great chance to be in the top five.  Unfortunately, reviews have not been great for the film, as it currently has a 47% rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.  I’m predicting that She’s Out Of My League will wind up in 4th place with a gross of $15 million from 2,965 theatres.

Hollywood is anticipating the film Remember Me starring Robert Pattinson, as it will be a good gauge to see how much of a box office draw Pattinson is outside of the Twilight franchise.  The film also stars Pierce Brosnan and Chris Cooper and is mainly a love story of two lost souls in New York.  Reviews have not been kind for the film, with many critics saying how upset they are with the twist in the film.  Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 33% as of this writing.  Critics don’t like it, but girls like Robert Pattinson, and I think females will come out in force to support the film.  Dear John was able to have an opening weekend of $30.4 million from almost 3,000 theatres, and I would argue that Pattinson is a bigger star than Amanda Seyfried or Channing Tatum.  Opening in a relatively small 2,212 theatres, I’m predicting a 2nd place finish for Remember Me and a gross of $23 million.

With Green Zone, Remember Me, and She’s Out Of My League all making the top five, three of last week’s films will be pushed out.  Here’s how I think the remaining films will do:

Alice in Wonderland will be the number one film again, but the question is how well will it hold up?  It is the start of March Break, so it will still get the younger audience, although it might lose some females because of Remember Me.  Having said that, Alice in Wonderland is really the only game in town, so I think it will have a strong hold, and drop only 47% for a gross of $61.5 million to retain its first place ranking.

Brooklyn’s Finest will be hurt by all the new releases this weekend and drop out of the top five into 6th place this weekend with a gross of $6.38 million, which is a drop of 52% drop from last weekend.

Shutter Island has been battling Brooklyn’s Finest for most of the week for the #2 position, so I think when the battle happens on the weekend, the more established Shutter Island will remain in the top five, finishing in 5th place, with a gross of $7.26 million, which is a drop of 45% from last weekend.

Opening in limited release, we have the following films:

Our Family Wedding stars Taye Diggs and America Ferrera in a story about a couple who are getting married, but their families end up taking over how the wedding should go.  It’s getting terrible reviews, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 5%.  It opens in 1,605 theatres.

Stolen is a film that stars Jon Hamm from Mad Men and Josh Lucas.  The film is about two fathers searching for their missing sons.  The film currently is at 0% on Rotten Tomatoes, and is being released in 1 theatre this weekend.

Mother – from the director of The Host, tells the story of a woman who supports her mentally-challenged son.  Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 87%, and their currently is no theatre count.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Alice in Wonderland – $61.5 million

2) Remember Me – $23 million

3) Green Zone – $17 million

4) She’s Out Of My League – $15 million

5) Shutter Island – $7.26 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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