I would say it was an average weekend of predictions from me. I got the top 3 in order, but I wouldn’t consider my predictions to be close. Here’s how I did.
As expected Michael Jackson’s This Is It was the #1 film in the land, but it didn’t do as well as I had thought it would, with a weekend gross of $21.3 million (I predicted that it would open #1 with $35 million). It also had a per theatre average of $6,119, which is good, but not great. The film has been out since Wednesday and in the five day span it has grossed $32.5 million. Let’s not get completely down on the film, as it is a concert film, and when was the last time you can remember a concert film opening at #1, and grossing $32.5 million in five days. I can’t either. What’s more encouraging is that the foreign gross for the film is $68.5 million, so in five days Michael Jackson’s This Is It has grossed $101 million worldwide. Love or hate the man, he definitely has influenced many, and has a very devoted fan base. I don’t think that long term prospects are going to be great for the film (I say this as I have read rumours that the film will be extended from its original two week engagement), as numbers from Saturday were below Friday’s take, so the up front demand has been satisfied, and I don’t know how much repeat business the film will get. Still, we shouldn’t be overly negative on the film. It has good reviews, and if I’m Sony, I’m not complaining about the box office numbers.
In 2nd place is the horror phenomenon Paranormal Activity with a gross of $16.5 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $22 million). The film had the highest per theatre average in the top ten with $6,880. The only negative for the film this weekend is that it actually posted a decline from weekend to weekend, as it was down 21.6%, even though it expanded its theatre count by 459 theatres to 2,404 theatres in total. The total gross for the film is $84.7 million, which means I can safely say that it is going to cross the $100 million mark. Remember, the budget on the film was only $15,000. I still haven’t felt a backlash against the film, and people who see it are being scared by it. Just a perfectly marketed film, but marketing can only get you so far. You have to have a good film to begin with or else audiences won’t come, and Paranormal Activity is a good film.
In 3rd place is Law Abiding Citizen with a gross of $7.3 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $6.82 million). It had a per theatre average of $2,642, and its gross was down 41.1% from last weekend. The total gross for the film now stands at $51.3 million, and with a reported budget of $50 million (before marketing), we can say that the film has made a profit. It has not been released overseas, so the fact that it has recouped its budget before it goes worldwide must make Overture Films quite happy.
In 4th place is the film that will not go away. Couples Retreat grossed $6 million and had a per theatre average of $2,015 (I predicted that it would be the #5 film and gross $5.51 million). Down 42.6% from last weekend, the film has continued to play well despite negative reviews. I keep saying this, but Couples Retreat solidifies that Vince Vaughn is at the top of A List actors. His films open strong, and play well. He can overcome bad reviews, and still make a film a hit. The total gross for the film is $86.6 million. The film has started its worldwide release, and it’s not proving to be as popular as it was in North America, as the Foreign gross is only above $5 million, but Couples Retreat is a hit for Universal, which truthfully has not had many this year. Its summer line-up of Drag Me To Hell, Land of the Lost, and Bruno did not set the box office on fire.
In 5th place, much to my surprise is Saw VI with $5.5 million (I predicted that the film would fall out of the top 5 and gross $4.2 million). The horror film posted a stronger hold than the previous two films in the franchise with a drop of 60.6%, but the film opened much lower than the previous two installments, so we cannot be excited when we say that the film held up stronger. The per theatre average is $1,831, and the total gross stands at $22.8 million.
Where The Wild Things Are fell out of the top five in its third week of release with a gross of $5 million, making it the #6 film. Its per theatre average is $1,394 which is incredibly disappointing considering it had the highest theatre count of any film this weekend with 3,645. Unfortunately the film has failed to connect with audiences, and its total gross stands at a disappointing $61.8 million. While it might be a commercial failure, the film has impressed critics, so it’s unlikely to hurt director Spike Jonze or anyone else involved in the long run.
In other news:
Amelia cracked the top then this weekend as it hit #9 at the box office with a gross of $3 million. Unfortunately, that number is down 23.2% from last weekend, even though 250 theatres were added.
The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day grossed $462,000 from 68 theatres for a decent per theatre average of $6,794.
Gentlemen Broncos had a disappointing opening with $10,000 from 2 theatres. It’s going to have some great word-of-mouth to become a hit.
The House of the Devil has yet to release numbers for the weekend as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
1) Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $35 million
2) Paranormal Activity – $22 million
3) Law Abiding Citizen – $6.82 million
4) Where the Wild Things Are– $6.3 million
5) Couples Retreat – $5.51 Million
And here are the final numbers,
1) Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $21.3 million
2) Paranormal Activity – $16.5 million
3) Law Abiding Citizen – $7.3 million
4) Couples Retreat– $6 million
5) Saw VI – $5.5 Million
Scotty’s Top 5 Predictions were off by: $21.47 million
Next weekend brings us A Christmas Carol, The Fourth Kind, The Box, The Men Who Stare At Goats, and in limited release a film that will most likely be around come Oscar time – Precious.
Until Next Weekend!
