Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of June 12, 2009

We got spoiled in the month of May with major blockbuster releases, but things have settled down a bit in June. This weekend we get two new offerings.

Denzel Washington reteams with director Tony Scott to take on bad guy John Travolta in The Taking of Pelham 123. This is the fourth time Washington has headlined a Scott film, and here’s how the previous 3 stacked up:

2006 – Déjà Vu – Opening Weekend – $20.5 million//Final Gross – $64 million
2004 – Man of Fire – Opening Weekend – $22.7 million//Final Gross – $77.9 million
1995 – Crimson Tide – Opening Weekend – $18.6 million//Final Gross -$91.3 million

The Taking of Pelham 123 will open stronger than their previous three films, but I don’t think it will beat the total gross of Crimson Tide. Marketing has been consistent, but reviews have not been kind, and because adults make up the target audience, they care about reviews. Word of mouth will be key. Opening in 3,074 theatres, I’m predicting an opening weekend of $32 million.

Eddie Murphy takes on Denzel with his family offering Imagine That. The trailers annoy me, but never count out an Eddie Murphy family film. See below:
2003 – Daddy Day Care – Opening Weekend – $27.6 million//Final Gross – $104.2 million
2001 – Dr. Doolittle 2 – Opening Weekend – $25 million//Final Gross – $112.9 million
1998 – Dr. Doolittle – Opening Weekend – $29 million//Final Gross – $144.1 million
I don’t think Imagine That will play as well as Eddie’s other family efforts. It does have the Nickelodeon brand behind it, but I think kids would rather see Up. Opening in 3,008 theatres, Imagine That will open with $18 million.
For the remaining Top 5, I think that The Hangover will drop 38%, because I’m betting it will have great word of mouth for its second weekend. It will gross $27.8 million. Up will also have a strong hold, dropping 35% for a gross of $28.7 million. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian will round out the top 5 dropping 45% for a gross of $8 million.
So – my predictions are as follows:

1) The Taking of Pelham 123 – $32 million
2) Up – $28.7 million
3) The Hangover – $27.8 million
4) Imagine That – $18 million
5) Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian – $8 million

Check back Sunday to see how I did!

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