Scotty G’s Weekend Box Office Predictions

Four films battle for box office supremacy this weekend in what should not be a tightly contested battle. Also, it’s the weekend before the summer movie season officially starts, and this weekend is usually considered a dumping ground for films.

Obsessed stars Beyonce Knowles, Ali Larter, and Idris Elba [who has done fantastic work on The Office, by the way]. The trailer sells the premise of the film. A married man is having issues with the hot temp at work. It’s been done before, and it will be done again. Guys will want to see it because it has two gorgeous women in it, so they won’t mind if they get dragged into the theatres by their wives//girlfriends. It’s only PG-13, so young fans of both Beyonce and Ali Larter [from her work in Heroes] can still see it. Opening in a moderate release of 2,400 locations, I say Obsessed takes the #1 spot with $25 million.

Fighting starring Channing Tatum and Terence Howard also opens. It’s being sold as Fight Club for teens. It is going after the same male demographic as Fast and Furious, but it will come nowhere near the levels of success the car franchise has had. Like Obsessed, the film is also rated PG-13, but doesn’t have the cross gender appeal. The marketing of the film has not been that strong, the trailers and commercials don’t interest me, but I’m sure it will do all right on its opening weekend. Opening about the same number of locations as Obsessed, Fighting should open with $12 million.

The Soloist with Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx opens this weekend after being delayed from its 2008 release. Unlike Star Trek, which also got bumped to a later release date, the reason this film got bumped might be because the studio didn’t have faith in it to be an Oscar contender. Despite two A-List actors, the film will have some battles, as its going after the same demographic as State of Play – the adult crowd. This crowd tends to study reviews more carefully, and State of Play has the better reviews. The Soloist gets a soft release in of 1,800 locations, and I’ll predict it makes $6 million.

Earth – the first film from Disney Nature actually opened on Wednesday. It grossed over $5 million, but on its second day, even though it was the number #1 film on that day, it only grossed $1.6 million. The up front demand is gone, and the film will not crack the Top 5. It’s release is not that big, almost the same as The Soloist, so I’ll predict a gross of $5 million.

Among holdovers, 17 Again will drop 60% to $9.2 million, State of Play will drop 35% to $8.4 million, Hannah Montana will drop 60% to $5.2 million and Monsters vs. Aliens will suffer a 30% drop to $9.24 million.

So my top 5 predictions are:

1) Obsessed – $25 million
2) Fighting – $12 million
3) Monsters vs. Aliens – $9.24 million
4) 17 Again – $9.20 million
5) State of Play – $8.4 million

Come back Sunday to see how I did!

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