Not a very solid weekend in predictions for me. I was close on some, but way off on predicting the top film.
Zac Efron proved he has leading man power as 17 Again opened at #1 with $24 million. It opened very close to my prediction of $22 million. Although the opening was not as strong as Hannah Montana, the New Line release got better reviews, and might do better over the long run, as it appeals to a bigger audience than the teenage girls who love Hannah Montana.
Opening in #2 was State of Play. Averaging a decent $5,030 per theatre, the film opened at $14 million, which was a little off from my $18 million prediction. Reviews have been some of the best for 2009, so we’ll see if the film is able to hold in the coming weeks, as films geared towards an older audience do not have strong up front demand, but tend to have strong holds every weekend, thereby having long runs in the theatre.
Monsters vs. Aliens was the #3 film dropping 40.9% from last weekend for a total of $12.9 million, below my prediction of $15.2 million. It’s total gross stands at $162 million. Monsters vs. Aliens has smooth sailing from this point on, as the next animated film that poses a direct threat is Disney/Pixar’s Up, but by the time that one is released Monsters vs. Aliens will have wrapped up its run.
Last week’s #1 film Hannah Montana: The Movie fell 60.8% to drop to #4 and gross $12.6 million. The drop is not that surprising as there was a lot of up front demand, and last weekend was a long weekend, so most kids got to see it right away. It should continue to decline in the coming weeks.
Fast and Furious rounds out the top 5 dropping 54.9% for a total of $12.2 million, which was pretty close to my prediction of $13.5 million. Fast and Furious is the 5th highest grossing film of 2009, and has a legitimate shot of reaching #2 before the summer season starts. It has grossed $136.7 million so far.
Interesting stat when comparing this year to last year. At this time last year, Horton Hears a Who was the only release to gross over $100 million. In 2009, we’ve had Monsters vs. Aliens, Gran Torino, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, Taken, Fast and Furious, and Watchmen. 6 films before summer grossing $100 million. I think that’s pretty interesting.
The big story of the weekend for me is how off I was in my prediction of Crank: High Voltage. I projected it to have the best opening weekend of Jason Statham’s career. It didn’t even come close. His last two films – Transporter 3 and Death Race – both opened stronger. Crank: High Voltage landed at #6 with $6.5 million and a terrible average of $2,928. It didn’t even beat the opening weekend of the original Crank which grossed $10.4 million. I really thought the first one found an audience on DVD and TV, and it was going to be like Austin Powers. Both original films just did all right at the box office, but I though Crank: High Volatage would have a huge opening just like Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me. I was dead wrong. Crank: High Voltage is looking like it will hit DVD shelves soon, and hopefully find an audience. The reviews have been positive, but it has done nothing to peak audience interest. So that is where I stumbled in my predictions.
So to recap here were my predictions:
1) Crank: High Voltage – $25 million
2) 17 Again – $22 million
3) State of Play – $18 million
4) Monsters vs. Aliens – $15.2 million
5) Fast and Furious – $13.5 million
And here are the actual numbers
1) 17 Again – $24 million
2) State of Play – $14 million
3) Monsters vs. Aliens – $12.9 million
4) Hannah Montana: The Movie – $12.6
5) Fast and Furious – $12.4 million
Next weekend brings us the final weekend of movies before the summer movie season starts. Earth, The Soloist, Obsessed, and Fighting all will battle for #1 next weekend.
Until then!
