Scotty G’s Weekend Box Office Predictions: Weekend of April 3rd, 2009

There’s only one big release out this weekend and that is Fast and Furious. In honor of Fast and Furious’s release, I will do my best to not use a three letter word that starts with “T” when I talk about it, in honour of that word being removed in the title.

Fast and Furious returns to screens on Friday. It once was a popular franchise, but entry #3 didn’t live up to its predecessors, so it will be hard to tell how Fast and Furious will do.

Here’s how the franchise has performed on opening weekend:

Film #1 – $40.1 million in Summer 2001
Film #2 – $50.5 million in Summer 2003
Film #3 – $24 million in Fall 2006

Stars from #1 have re-united for this installment, but will it make a difference? It has a big release this weekend in over 3,400 locations, but even with Vin Diesel returning to a big film, it will not do as well as installments #1 and #2. Expect an opening of around $35 million.

Phew – I’m happy that that is over. Now I can return to using the word “The”. Adventureland is the other major release this weekend. Boasting a cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Jesse Eisenberg, Bill Hader, Ryan Reynolds, and Kristen Wiig, it’s hoping to appeal to fans of all the demographics these actors represent. Eisenberg is best known for his independent work, Stewart is hoping to cash in on the success of Twilight, Reynolds can bring in both young men and women, and Hader and Wiig can bring in the Saturday Night Live audience. The trailers have been funny, it’s got a likeable cast and it’s directed by Greg Mottola, who was the director of Superbad. I think it has a lot going for it. Unfortunately, it is not getting a big release, as it’s being put into about 1,800 locations. I think it will have a solid per theatre average, and I’m predicting it opens with $15 million.

Monsters vs. Aliens has a very good shot at remaining the #1 movie in North America for the 2nd week in a row. The film has good buzz, and no competition, so it should see a small drop from last weekend. I’m predicting it falls by 35%, and it will gross $38.5 million dollars.

The Haunting in Connecticut was the big surprise for me last weekend with a haul of $23 million. Horror films tend to not hold up well in their second weekend, so I’m expecting a 60% drop-off, for a total gross of $9.2 million.

Knowing surprised me in how well it held up, but I don’t expect to be surprised again. It should see a drop of 50% and gross $7.35 million this weekend.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Monsters vs. Aliens – $38.5 million
2) Fast and Furious – $35 million
3) Adventureland – $15 million
4) The Haunting in Connecticut – $9.2 million
5) Knowing – $7.35 million

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