Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

Rio claimed the number one spot at the box office this weekend for the second weekend in a row narrowly beating out Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family for 1st place.  Water for Elephants had a decent opening weekend and the long weekend definitely helped out the box office overall.  My predictions were pretty good, as I correctly predicted all five films in the top five and placed three of the films in their correct finish.  Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Staying in 1st place for the second weekend in a row is the animated adventure Rio with a gross of $40 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $25.5 million).  Rio had a per theatre average of $6,976 and was down 31.7% from last weekend’s gross.  The hold was strong for the film, and it definitely benefitted from the long weekend as more families were able to go out to the movies together to see this family friendly tale.  What was great news for 20th Century Fox was that Rio posted the best second weekend hold of their animated films that I used to make my prediction with.  See below:
2002 – Ice Age – 35.1% second weekend drop
2005 – Robots – 41.7% second weekend drop
2006 – Ice Age:  The Meltdown – 50.3% second weekend drop
2008 – Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who – 45.4% second weekend drop
2009 – Ice Age:  Dawn of the Dinosaurs – 33.8% second weekend drop
2011 – Rio – 31.7% second weekend drop
This might be a case of a film having a good, but not great opening weekend but is able to have a steady run, although we’ll see that theory put to the test when the summer box office season starts in two weeks.  The budget for Rio is listed at $90 million and after ten days it has grossed $81.2 million.
Debuting in 2nd place is Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family with a gross of $25.7 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $32 million).  Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family had a per theatre average of $11,254 which was easily the best per theatre average of any film in the top ten and the 2nd best per theatre average of any film in release.  The opening weekend was a little below some of Tyler Perry’s other Madea films, but it was still in the ballpark of how his films open overall.  See below:
2005 – Diary of a Mad Black Woman – $21.9 million opening weekend // 1,483 theatres
2006 – Madea’s Family Reunion – $30 million opening weekend // 2,194 theatres
2007 – Daddy’s Little Girls – $11.2 million opening weekend // 2,111 theatres
2007 – Why Did I Get Married? – $21.3 million opening weekend // 2,011 theatres
2008 – Meet the Browns – $20 million opening weekend // 2,006 theatres
2008 – The Family That Preys – $17.3 million opening weekend // 2,070 theatres
2009 – Madea Goes to Jail – $41 million opening weekend // 2,032 theatres
2009 – I Can Do Bad All by Myself – $23.4 million opening weekend // 2,255 theatres
2010 – Why Did I Get Married Too? – $29.2 million opening weekend // 2,155 theatres
2010 – For Colored Girls – $19.4 million opening weekend // 2,127 theatres
2011 – Madea’s Big Happy Family – $25.7 million opening weekend // 2.288 theatres
The consistency of those numbers is truly amazing and no one should doubt the box office power of Tyler Perry.  He has his core audience and they support his films, no matter what the critics have to say.  The budget for Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family has not been announced, but I’m sure it will be a profitable film when all is said and done.
Debuting in 3rd place is the Reese Witherspoon // Robert Pattinson romance Water for Elephants with a gross of $17.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $18.5 million).  Water for Elephants had a per theatre average of $6,212.  The film definitely performed well considering the reviews were mixed and it opened in line with a film I used on Friday when I made my prediction for Water for Elephants.  That film was The Time Traveler’s Wife which opened with $18.6 million back in 2009 as both films were based on very popular books.  I don’t know if Water for Elephants will perform well in the long term as adults tend to support films that the critics support, and the critics are not supporting the film overall (although the look of the film and the setting of the circus seems to be getting a lot of notice).  Time will tell how well the film performs, and 20th Century Fox is hoping that Water for Elephants will make back its $38 million budget.
Dropping from 3rd place to 4th place is the live action//animated adventure Hop with a gross of $12.4 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $8.3 million).  Hop had a per theatre average of $3,446 and as predicted on Friday it had the best hold of any film in the top ten as it went UP 16.3% from last weekend’s gross.  The increase was to be expected because of the Easter theme of the film, but now that Easter has passed, Hop should rapidly decline from theatres.  After four weeks, Hop has grossed $100.5 million from a budget of $63 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 5th place is the horror sequel Scream 4 with a gross of $7.1 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $7.4 million).  Scream 4 had a per theatre average of $2,159 and as predicted, I said Scream 4 would set a new record for the franchise with highest second weekend drop, and I was right as it dropped 61.7% from last weekend’s gross.  Here’s how the franchise has done on its second weekend:
1996 – Scream – 42.8% second weekend increase
1997 – Scream 2 – 57.7% second weekend drop
2000 – Scream 3 – 53% second weekend drop
2011 – Scream 4 – 61.7% second weekend drop
The drop this weekend shows there is not a lot of interest in Scream 4 so I think it will be out of theatres soon.  (Fact –Scream 4 had the second worst per theatre average of any film in the top ten, which is not a good sign for any film when it is only ten days old).  After ten days of release, Scream 4 has grossed $31.1 million from a budget of $40 million.
African Cats debuted in 6th place with a gross of $6.4 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $5.5 million).  The Disney Nature film had a per theatre average of $5,246 and had a better opening weekend than last year’s Oceans did (Oceans grossed $6 million).  This film will not be in theatres for long, as it definitely fits the Earth Day theme, but then people soon forget about the film being in release.
In limited release:
Incendies made the most noise in limited release at the box office.  The film grossed $54,600 from three theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $18,200, which also gave it the best per theatre average of any film in release.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
  1. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family – $32 million 
  2. Rio – $25.5 million
  3. Water for Elephants – $18.5 million
  4. Hop – $8.3 million
  5. Scream 4 – $7.4 million 
 And here are the actual numbers:

  1. Rio – $26.8 million 
  2. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family – $25.7 million 
  3. Water for Elephants – $17.5 million
  4. Hop – $12.4 million 
  5. Scream 4 – $7.1 million 
Next weekend, Rio looks to be the #1 film for a third weekend in a row against three major new films:  the action sequel Fast Five, the Disney dramedy Prom and the animated adventure Hoodwinked Too!:  Hood vs. Evil.  Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

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