First off, I will say it – I WAS WAY OFF THE MARK IN MY PREDICTIONS THIS WEEKEND. There, I said it. I wasn’t even close in my predictions on the two new releases. I thought the comedy duo of Vince Vaughn and Kevin James would be box office gold this weekend, but instead, audiences wanted to see The Green Hornet. The battle for first wasn’t even close. I did pick all five films in the top five, but I only got one in the right spot. Barney’s Version opened well in the U.S. in limited release, and I thought the box office was pretty strong for a January, although if you compare it to this weekend last year, you would notice that the top ten is off close to 30%, but last year was helped by the Avatar juggernaut. Enough about last year, here’s how the weekend broke down:
The Green Hornet finished in 1st place with a gross of $34 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $23 million). The Green Hornet had a per theatre average of $9,487 which was the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten. The opening weekend represented a personal best for Seth Rogen, as it was the highest grossing opening weekend for him in his career in a live action film (Monsters vs. Aliens, Horton Hears a Who and Kung Fu Panda all had larger opening weekends). Sony has to be real excited by this news, because there was a lot of negative buzz surrounding the film for months (especially when the film got moved to a January release, which is generally a dumping ground), but the marketing kicked in and magically all the bad buzz went away. Even though the reviews were mixed to negative, the fact that the film wasn’t as bad as people predicted definitely helped. Audiences were also in the mood for an action film this weekend, as they haven’t had a major one in release since Tron: Legacy, so the timing was perfect. The film’s budget has not been officially released, but the fact that The Green Hornet had a #1 debut and a gross above $30 million is excellent. There’s not much in the way of competition next week, so The Green Hornet has a legitimate chance of repeating as box office champion next weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see until then.
Debuting in 2nd place is the Vince Vaughn//Kevin James comedy The Dilemma with a gross of $17.4 million (I predicted a 1stplace finish and a gross of $33 million). The Dilemma had a per theatre average of $5,925, which is respectable. I am absolutely stunned that this film did not do better. The films that I used in my prediction on Friday show how disappointing the gross of this film is, because The Dilemma had an opening weekend gross that was lower than any of the films that I used. See below:
2005 – Hitch – $43.1 million opening weekend
2005 – Wedding Crashers – $33.9 million opening weekend
2006 – The Break-Up – $39.1 million opening weekend
2007 – I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – $34.2 million opening weekend
2007 – Fred Claus – $18.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Four Christmases – $31.0 million opening weekend
2009 – Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $31.8 million opening weekend
2009 – Couples Retreat – $34.2 million opening weekend
2010 – Grown Ups – $40.5 million opening weekend
2011 – The Dilemma – $17.4 million opening weekend
I think Vaughn and James will come away unscathed from this film, as it will just be seen as a blip in their careers. Next weekend, another comedy goes into release (the film is the Natalie Portman//Ashton Kutcher sex comedy No Strings Attached) and it will be going after The Dilemma’s audience. The Dilemma did not officially list its budget, but I think it would be fairly high considering the talent involved on this film. We’ll see how well it holds up next weekend.
Dropping from 1st place to 3rd place is the Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin western True Grit with a gross of $11.2 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $9.6 million). True Grit had a per theatre average of $3,238 and was down 23.3% from last weekend. After four weekends, True Grit has grossed $126.4 million, from a budget of $38 million.
Moving up from 9th place to 4th place (the largest jump of any film in the top ten) is the Colin Firth//Geoffrey Rush//Helena Bonham Carter historical film The King’s Speech with a gross of $9 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $7.1 million). The King’s Speech had a per theatre average of $5,878 and the film was UP 41.4% from last weekend. The percentage jump from weekend to weekend was the best of any film in the top ten. As I said last weekend, The King’s Speech continues to build on word-of-mouth and this is the highest place the film has achieved so far. In eight weeks, The King’s Speech has grossed $44.5 million and its budget is listed at $15 million.
Staying in 5th place for the second weekend in a row is the Natalie Portman ballet thriller Black Swan with a gross of $8.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $8.5 million). Black Swan had a per theatre average of $3,490 and was down 0.1% percent from last weekend. After seven weeks of release, Black Swan has grossed $72.9 million and its budget is listed at $13 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 6th place is Little Fockers with a gross of $7.1 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $6 million). The film had a per theatre average of $2,103, and was down 47.1% from last weekend. Here’s how the films in the franchise stack up in total gross:
2000 – Meet the Parents – $166.2 million total gross
2004 – Meet the Fockers – $279.2 million total gross
2010 – Little Fockers – $134.2 million total gross so far
As listed above, Little Fockers, with a budget listed at $100 million has grossed $134.2 million, but it should finish its run as the lowest grossing film of the franchise.
Tron: Legacy drops from 4th place to 7th place with a gross of $5.6 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a $5.6 million gross). The film had a per theatre average of $2,326 and was down 43.8% from last weekend. After five weeks, Tron: Legacy has grossed $156.9 million and inches closer to making back its budget of $170 million.
Yogi Bear stays in 8th place for the second weekend in a row with a gross of $5.3 million (I predicted a 10th place finish and a gross of $3.5 million). The film had a per theatre average of $1,978 and was down 19.5% from last weekend’s gross. After five weeks, Yogi Bear has grossed $82 million, and what I once thought was impossible, it now has made back its $80 million budget.
Dropping from 7th place to 9th place is the Mark Wahlberg//Christian Bale drama The Fighter with a gross of $5.1 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $4.7 million). The Fighter had a per theatre average of $2,123 and the gross was down 26.8% from last weekend. The critically acclaimed drama continues to perform well, and once again the percentage drop from weekend to weekend is fairly low. After six weeks, The Fighter has grossed $65.7 million from a budget of $25 million.
Suffering the biggest drop of any film in the top ten is the Nicolas Cage action-horror Season of the Witch, which dropped from 3rd place to 10th place with a gross of $4.5 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $3.9 million). Season of the Witch had a per theatre average of $1,592 and the gross was down 57.6% from last weekend. The per theatre average and percentage drop are the worst of any film in the top ten (which is how it should be when you’re a 10th place film). Audiences really hate what is already being called the worst film of 2011, so the drop should not come as a shock to anyone. After two weeks, Season of the Witch has grossed $17.9 million, and it will not make back its budget of $40 million.
In limited release:
The Heart Specialist – This dramedy is about an intern who comes to work at a hospital to win back the girl he loves. The Heart Specialist grossed $540,000 from 422 theatres giving it a terrible per theatre average of $1,280.
Barney’s Version – Paul Giamatti and Dustin Hoffman star in this film based on the book by Mordecai Richler and it follows the live of Barney Panofsky through the best of times, and more often than not, the worst of times. Barney’s Version grossed $71,700 from 4 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $17,925, which was the highest per theatre average of any film in release. Barney’s Version has a total gross of $101,000.
Every Day – Helen Hunt, Live Schreiber, Brian Dennehy, and Carla Gugino star in this dramedy about a family dealing with the ups and downs of life, especially when a grandfather moves in with the family. Every Day grossed $10,000 from 3 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $3,333.
Blue Valentine with Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams expanded its theatre count to 230 theatres, but its per theatre average dropped significantly. Blue Valentine grossed $1.374 million this weekend, but the per theatre average dropped from $17,608 to $5,974. Blue Valentine has made $2.8 million in three weeks, and it is a profitable film as its budget is listed at $1 million.
Rabbit Hole starring Aaron Eckhart and Nicole Kidman also did not have a great weekend, even though it expanded its theatre count to 100 theatres. Rabbit Hole grossed $283,000 from 100 theatres, giving the film a per theatre average of $2,830. The film has grossed $965,000 in five weeks of limited release.
Ong Bak 3: The Final Battle, Plastic Planet, A Somewhat Gentle Man and Twelve Thirty have not released their box office grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
- The Dilemma – $33 million
- The Green Hornet – $23 million
- True Grit – $9.5 million
- Black Swan – $8.5 million
- The King’s Speech – $7.1 million
And here are the actual numbers:
- The Green Hornet – $34 million
- The Dilemma – $17.4 million
- True Grit – $11.2 million
- The King’s Speech – $9 million
- Black Swan – $8.1 million
My predictions were off by $33.4 million.
Next weekend, The Green Hornet will try to stay in 1st place for a second weekend in a row against the Natalie Portman//Ashton Kutcher sex comedy No Strings Attached. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
