According to early estimates, for the third weekend in a row, we have a new #1 film with Date Night, but when final numbers come out on Monday, Clash of the Titans might be the #1 film. In a very tight box office battle, only $225,000 separates the two films in the battle for top spot. I had a decent weekend of predictions, as I predicted all five films in order, and I was fairly accurate on all my predictions, with the major exception of Date Night. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Debuting in 1st place was Date Night with a gross of $27.1 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $45 million). The film had a per theatre average of $8,032, which was the highest per theatre average in the top ten. What is shocking to me is how low the gross was for Date Night is. Steve Carell’s 2007 film Evan Almighty had a bigger opening weekend than Date Night’s (For the record – Evan Almighty’s opening weekend gross was $31.1 million). Date Night got mixed to decent reviews, it stars two comedy stars in a premise that I think people want to see them in, it was marketed pretty well, and yet it did not have a big opening weekend, and as mentioned above, there is the chance that it will not be the #1 film when final numbers come out on Monday. I really view this opening weekend as a disappointment, and next weekend another comedy comes out in Death at a Funeral that will take away some of Date Night’s audience. I do hope that Date Night displays some legs over the coming weeks to have a decent run, but we’ll have to wait and see.
In 2nd place was Clash of the Titans with a gross of $26.8 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $23.8 million). The film had a per theatre average of $7,069. Clash of the Titans fell 56.1% from last weekend, which is a big drop, but not as big as I expected. The word of mouth on the film has not been glowing, so I thought it would struggle even more in its second weekend. Clash of the Titans will lose some of its action audience next weekend when Kick-Ass opens, but it will still have its 3-D screenings to boost its box office, which also helped its final gross this weekend. After two weekends, Clash of the Titans has grossed $110.4 million. Again, Clash of the Titans could be the #1 film when final numbers are released on Monday.
Staying in 3rd place for the 2nd weekend in a row is How To Train Your Dragon with a gross of $25.3 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $19.4 million). The film had an absolutely amazing hold as it was only down 12.6% from last weekend (which is the lowest percentage drop in the top ten) and had a per theatre average of $6,326. The film did have a lower opening weekend than expected, but How To Train Your Dragon has benefitted from glowing reviews (it is the highest rated film of the year so far on Rotten Tomatoes), excellent word-of-mouth, and 3-D screenings to become a hit at the box office. I really believe that the film will play well leading into the summer season, and it should be able to gross $200 million (especially if the low weekend declines keep up). After three weekends, How To Train Your Dragon has grossed $133.8 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too with a gross of $11 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $11.9 million). The film had a per theatre average of $5,104 and was down 62.4 % from last weekend. In my predictions on Friday, I said that Tyler Perry films suffer large drops on their 2nd weekend, and the fact that this was a sequel made my prediction of a drop even higher. It turned out that Why Did I Get Married Too had one of the worst 2nd weekend percentage drops in Tyler Perry’s career. Here’s a breakdown of Tyler Perry films percentage drops on their second weekend:
1) Meet The Browns – 62.7% second weekend drop
2) Why Did I Get Married Too – 62.4% second weekend drop
3) Madea Goes To Jail – 60.6% second weekend drop
4) The Family That Preys – 58.2% second weekend drop
5-tie) Madea’s Family Reunion – 57.9% second weekend drop
5-tie) I Can Do Bad All By Myself – 57.9% second weekend drop
7) Daddy’s Little Girls – 57% second weekend drop
8) Why Did I Get Married – 42.9% second weekend drop
Why Did I Get Married Too is continuing the pattern of other Tyler Perry films, and should end its run soon. Hard to get upset though because Tyler Perry’s films are profitable, as the reported budget on Why Did I Get Married Too is $20 million, and after two weekends the film has grossed $48.5 million.
Dropping from 4th place to 5th place is The Last Song with a gross of $10 million (I predicted a gross of $7.7 million and a 5th place finish). The film had a per theatre average of $3,746, and was down 37.5% from last weekend. The per theatre average is not great for a second weekend, but the percentage drop is a very good sign. What this tells me is that Miley Cyrus does not have the star power to bring in major audiences, but she has a dedicated core fan base, and those fans are accepting her in a role that they are not accustomed to seeing her in. It’s hard to get down about this film, because the budget is reportedly only $20 million, and after two weekends, The Last Song has grossed $42.4 million.
I mentioned two other films in my predictions on Friday, and they were Alice in Wonderland and Hot Tub Time Machine. I predicted that Alice in Wonderland would be the 6th place film with a gross of $3.7 million and that Hot Tub Time Machine would be the #7 film with a gross of $3.6 million. I was right on the placement of both films, and both films did better than I expected. Alice in Wonderland finished in 6th place with a gross of $5.6 million (which was down a low 31.8% from last weekend) and Hot Tub Time Machine finished in 7th place with a gross of $5.4 million (which was down a low 32.7% from last weekend). Alice in Wonderland’s total box office after six weekends is $319.3 million, while Hot Tub Time Machine’s total box office after three weekends is $36.9 million.
In limited release:
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
Letters To God – the drama about a terminally ill boy writing letters to God, and a postman who decides to do something about it, finished in 10th place at the box office with a gross of $1.25 million. It’s per theatre average is a low $1,394 from 897 theatres.
La Mission – the drama starring Benjamin Bratt about life in a tough San Francisco neighbourhood had a gross of $49,000 from 15 theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $3,267.
The Square – the film-noir that follows a scheming couple whose plans go awry, had a gross of $16,564 from two theatres, giving it a per theatre average of $8,282.
Everyone Else – a drama about a young couple who begin to question how happy they are in their relationship had a gross of $11,400 from one theatre giving it the same per theatre average.
After.Life – the thriller starring Christina Ricci and Liam Neeson about a girl caught in limbo who is trying to come back to life, has not reported its box office grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) Date Night – $45 million
2) Clash of the Titans – $23.8 million
3) How To Train Your Dragon– $19.4 million
4) Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too – $11.9 million
5) The Last Song – $7.7 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) Date Night – $27.1 million
2) Clash of the Titans – $26.8 million
3) How To Train Your Dragon– $25.3 million
4) Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too – $11 million
5) The Last Song – $10 million
My top five predictions were off by $30 million.
Next weekend, Date Night looks to be the #1 film for a second weekend in a row, but it will have to fight off the superhero film Kick-Ass, and the Chris Rock comedy Death at a Funeral.
Check back next week to see how I think Kick-Ass and Death At A Funeral will do!