The hype was justified as Shutter Island was the #1 film at the box office this weekend, by a landslide. The rest of the top five was pretty close to one another, but were nowhere in the league of Shutter Island. My predictions were not bad, as I picked all five films to be in the top five, with three of them finishing in the spot I predicted. Here’s the breakdown.
Shutter Island was the #1 film with a gross of $40.2 million (I predicted a #1 opening and a gross of $33 million). The film had a per theatre average of $13,440 which was the 2nd highest per theatre average of any film this weekend. The opening weekend gross represented personal best’s for both Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio. Just to see a comparison of how big this opening was, here were the previous opening weekend high’s for the director and actor:
Martin Scorsese’s Previous Best Opening Weekend
2006 – The Departed – $26.8 million
Leonardo DiCaprio’s Previous Best Opening Weekend
2002 – Catch Me If You Can – $30 million
The film received decent reviews, and studios were scared off by the film, as Shutter Island was the only new film put into wide release this weekend. Horror/Thriller’s usually suffer big declines in their second week, so we’ll see how well Shutter Island holds up next weekend. It should not have a problem hitting $100 million.
Valentine’s Day dropped down one spot to 2nd place with a gross of $17.1 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $20.7 million). Valentine’s Day had a per theatre average of $4,682 and was down a very high 69.5% from last weekend, which represented the highest drop of any film in release. The all-star film capitalized on it’s release as everyone was in the mood for a romantic film during the Valentine’s Day long weekend, but now that love is no longer in the air, and the film has awful reviews, interest has faded rapidly. After two weekends, Valentine’s Day has taken in $87.4 million.
In yet another surprise to me, finishing in 3rd place, moving up one spot from last weekend is Avatar with a gross of $16.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $17.2 million). Avatar had a per theatre average of $6,238 (and just like I said last weekend, the per theatre average is ridiculous, considering that the film is in its 10th week). Avatar was down 31.8% from last weekend, which was the smallest decline in the top five. After ten weekends, Avatar has grossed $687.8 million.
Dropping one spot from last weekend to 4th place is Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief with a gross of $15.3 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $20.3 million). It had a per theatre average of $4,505, and was down 51% from last weekend. This weekend’s gross proves to me what I first thought last weekend, and that was I didn’t think the film would show the legs of other franchises based on books. When the per theatre average is below $5,000 in only its second weekend, that is a sign of disaster. After two weeks Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lightning Thief has grossed $58.7 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 5th place is The Wolfman with a gross of $9.8 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $15.1 million). It had a per theatre average of $3,055, and was down 68.7% from last weekend, which was the second largest drop of any film this weekend (behind only Valentine’s Day). The Wolfman was expected to have a big drop because it is a horror film, but I didn’t think it would be as close to a 70% drop as it was. Any hope of the film becoming profitable has died. After two weeks, The Wolfman has grossed $50.3 million.
In limited release, Roman Polanski’s The Ghost Writer, starring Ewan McGregor and Pierce Brosnan opened in 28th place with a gross of $179,000. It was released in 4 theatres, and had an exceptional per theatre average of $44,750, which was the highest of any film this weekend.
The Alexis Bledel film The Good Guy grossed $36,200. It was released in 9 theatres and had a per theatre average of $4,022, all but guaranteeing that the film will not last long in theatres.
Demi Moore and Parker Posey’s film Happy Tears grossed a terrible $14,000. It was released in 15 theatres and had a per theatre average of $933. It shows a lack of interest (or a lack of marketing), when you have a per theatre average below $1,000.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
1) Shutter Island – $33 million
2) Valentine’s Day – $20.7 million
3) Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief – $20.3 million
4) Avatar – $17.2 million
5) The Wolfman – $15.1 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) Shutter Island – $40.2 million
2) Valentine’s Day – $17.1 million
3) Avatar – $16.1 million
4) Percy Jackson and the Olympians: The Lighting Thief – $15.3 million
5) The Wolfman – $9.8 million
My top five predictions were off by $22.2 million.
Next weekend, Shutter Island will try to be the #1 film against Bruce Willis and Tracy Morgan’s action comedy Cop Out, and Timothy Olyphant in the horror film The Crazies.
Check back next week for my predictions!