Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of September 25, 2009


Another lackluster weekend for movie fans at the box office.  Here’s how I see things unfolding.

We have three new releases this weekend, and the one that I think that will fare best is Surrogates.  Bruce Willis stars in this sci-fi thriller about a society dealing with a murder for the first time in years.  The catch, a surrogate did it.  The trailer is semi-interesting, but never ever hits the point where it becomes must see.  Bruce Willis brings some star power, but remember, this is a new release in September, so the studio probably doesn’t have a lot of faith in it.  Opening in 2,951 theatres, expect Surrogates to open with $12 million.

MGM brings us the remake to Fame.  The studio is hoping to replicate the success that the original had, but I once again have to use “The film is being released in September, so the studio must not have a lot of faith in it” argument.  Its biggest names are Kelsey Grammer and Bebe Neuwirth, and they are not the main focus of the film.  I haven’t been blown away by the marketing or the trailers, and I don’t think audiences are either.  Opening in 3,096 theatres, Fame should open with $11 million.

The other new release is the Dennis Quaid sci-fi thriller Pandorum.  I don’t know what this movie is about, as I found the trailer to be confusing, not intriguing.  I know the studio has no faith in this film, because it is being released in September AND it is not being screened for critics.  That is definitely not a good sign.  Opening in 2,951 theatres, I expect Pandorum to bomb and open with $4 million.

Up here in Canada, Trailer Park Boys:  Countdown to Liquor Day opens in theatres, but Canadian films rarely make it into the top 10 of the North American box office, so I would be shocked to see this film do that.

Among holdovers, here’s what I see happening.

Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs should stay in the #1 spot for the 2nd week in a row.  Reviews have been superb, so I expect a strong hold this weekend (plus the film is in 3-D which boosts the box office gross).  Dropping 40%, I expect Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs to gross $18.2 million.

The Informant! had decent reviews in its opening weekend, so we’ll see if adult audiences respond to it. Dropping 52%, The Informant! should gross $4.9 million.

Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself should stay in the top 5 for another week.  I’m expecting a drop of 57% for a gross of $4.2 million.  I think it is sad when the #5 film grosses slightly above $4 million.

Here’s a recap of my predictions:

1)     Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs – $18.2 million

2)     Surrogates – $12 million

3)     Fame – $11 million

4)     The Informant! – $4.9 million

5)     Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $4.2 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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