Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of August 28, 2009


These are the weekends that I look forward to when it comes to movies.  Two hyped films from the same genre opening against one another.  We had it last year when Get Smart opened against The Love Guru, and we have it again now with The Final Destination against Halloween II, and neither was screened for critics.  So let’s begin!

The Final Destination opens in theatres this weekend, with the added benefit of it being in 3-D in some of those theatres.  Those screenings cost more money to go to, so The Final Destination has a definite advantage [Sidenote:  The Fast and The Furious franchise dropped the word “The”, and this franchise brings it back.  The joy of movies!]  Let’s look at the opening weekends and final grosses of the other 3 films in the franchise:

Final Destination – $10 million opening//$53.3 million gross

Final Destination 2 – $16 million opening//$46.9 million gross

Final Destination 3-D – $19.1 million opening//$54 million gross

So each film is in the same ballpark.  I think that The Final Destination will have the best opening weekend in the franchise thanks to a slick marketing campaign and the benefit of 3-D.  Opening in 3,121 theatres, The Final Destination should start with $25 million.

Halloween II is an unnecessary sequel.  That’s what many people would have you believe.  The first Rob Zombie Halloween did all right at the box office ($26.3 million opening//$58.2 million gross) but was not very well received by critics or fans.  I say this – Rob Zombie made a bad first film with House of 1000 Corpses, and made a vastly superior sequel in The Devil’s Rejects.  I’m hoping lightning strikes twice.  I do think that Halloween II targets an older crowd, and that is why it will not be at the top of the box office this weekend.  The teens will go see The Final Destination.  It might lose the battle, but we’ll see if it wins the war.  Opening in 3,000 theatres, I predict a gross of $18 million for Halloween II.

Taking Woodstock is the other major release this weekend, but it is not getting a very wide release.  It is only opening in 1,393 theatres.  The buzz has not been that good for the Ang Lee film, and older audiences like good reviews, and good word of mouth.  This film feels like it is being dumped in theatres, and the studio has no faith in it.  It will be in a battle for 5th place but will not win.

Among holdovers:

Inglourious Basterds has done well throughout the week and with great reviews it should continue to do well on the weekend.  I’m predicting a 44% drop for a gross of $21.3 million to make it the #2 film in the land.

District 9 also continues to play well and will end up being the #4 film in the land.  I’m predicting a drop of 40% for a gross of $10.9 million.

The battle for 5th place is where everything gets tight.  My brain tells me to put Julie & Julia in the #5 spot, but my gut is telling me G.I. Joe:  The Rise of Cobra.  My gut wins (why does my brain not beat my gut), and here are my predictions in what will be a tight battle for 5th place:

5) G.I. Joe:  The Rise of Cobra – 50% drop////$6.1 million weekend gross

6) Julie & Julia – 35% drop//$5.72 million weekend gross

7) The Time Traveler’s Wife – 42% drop//$5.6 million weekend gross

So that’s that.  Once again, here are my predictions for this weekend:

1) The Final Destination – $25 million

2) Inglourious Basterds – $21.3 million

3) Halloween II – $18 million

4) District 9 – $10.9 million

5) G.I. Joe:  The Rise of Cobra – $6.1 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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