I can’t say that I’m proud of my predictions this weekend. I was not very close and I did not guess the top 5 films in order. I got the Top 4 correct, but was way off on the number 5 film.
As expected, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince opened at #1, but with a gross of $79.4 million [I predicted $98 million]. It had a per theatre average of $18,376 which is excellent, but when you compare this films opening weekend, to the rest of the Harry Potter franchise, it might be considered disappointing. See below:
1) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $102.6 million
2) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $93.6 million
3) Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $90.2 million
4) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $88.3 million
5) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $79.4 million
6) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $77.1 million
It’s only the 5th highest opening weekend for the franchise, which is not good. I cut the film some slack, because the film did open on a Wednesday, and its total after 5 days is a stellar $159.6 million. Having said that, I thought the film would open better because there was a little more pent up demand for the film because of it being pushed back from its original November 2008 release. Also, a major plot twist happens in this film that anyone who has read the book was looking forward to seeing on screen. I’d say this was a good, but not great opening for the film.
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs finished in 2nd place with $17.7 million [I predicted $12.3 million], which was down only 35.9%. The film is holding up well, and its total gross is $152 million. The word I would use to describe this film is consistent. It did not have a huge opening, but it has been a steady performer showing small declines each weekend.
In 3rd place was Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen with a gross of $13.7 million [I predicted $11.6 million], down 42.3% with a total gross of $363.8 million. I think it is now safe to say that this film will be the highest grossing film of 2009. I don’t see any release between now and Christmas coming close to this number.
The other big story this weekend is the #4 film. Bruno dropped 72.7%, which was the biggest of the top 10 films, and only grossed $8.3 million [I predicted $9.1 million]. Bruno has now brought in $49.5 million. The fact that a #1 film dropped over 70% in its second weekend is always big news, and it shows that audiences are not embracing the character.
The #5 film was a surprise, because this film had the smallest decline of the top 10 films. The Hangover was off only 16.3% for a gross of $8.3 million [I predicted that Public Enemies would be the #5 film]. The Hangover has now grossed $235.8 million, and is within striking distance of Star Trek to be the #3 grossing film of 2009 [Star Trek has grossed $253.1 million]. Bruno and The Hangover might not be the #4 and #5 films when final numbers are released Monday, as The Proposal is predicted to have grossed $8.2 million and Public Enemies grossed $7.5 million. That’s four films within $800,000. It should be interesting.
Once again, here were my predictions:
1) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $98 million
2) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $12.3 million
3) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $11.6 million
4) Bruno – $9.1 million
5) Public Enemies – $6 million
And here are the actual numbers:
1) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $79.4 million
2) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $17.7 million
3) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $13.7 million
4) Bruno – $8.37 million
5) The Hangover – $8.31 million
Next weekend brings us G-Force, The Ugly Truth, and Orphan. Check back next week for my predictions.