Scotty G’s Weekend Box Office Predictions – Weekend of July 10, 2009

Sacha Baron Cohen returns to the theatres this weekend to unleash his creation Bruno. I have no doubt that it will open at #1, but how will it perform against his previous film Borat? It’s hard to compare the two , because Borat received a very limited release in its opening weekend, as it was launched in 837 screens. However, it opened with $26.4 million and had a ridiculous per theatre average of $31,607. Just to show you how crazy that number is, this year’s top grossing film is Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Its opening weekend per theatre average was $25,736, and this was a film that made over $100 million from Friday to Sunday. Bruno is getting a much larger release than Borat, as it will debut in 2,755 theatres. With a very short running time of 88 minutes, the film will be on many screens, and get many showings throughout the weekend. It’s getting good reviews, but not as good as Borat’s [Rotten Tomatoes is listing Bruno at 74% compared to Borat’s 91%], but that should not have an impact on the opening weekend. I’m predicting Bruno will open with $41 million.

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs was the #1 film on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday [Thursday numbers were not available as I write this], and has been the #1 film by a decent margin. Its not getting the love of the first film, and it did not have as big an opening as the second film, so I don’t think audiences are loving the film all that much. I’m predicting a 52% drop for a weekend total of $19.6 million.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is entering its third weekend, and it should suffer another big decline, just like it did last weekend. Although it is doing well at the box office, the word of mouth buzz is not very strong. I’m predicting a drop of 62% for a gross of $16 million.

Public Enemies looks to have a strong hold in its second weekend. It is the only mainstream adult drama out in theatres, and reviews have been good, but not great. The good reviews should help more adults come to the theatre this weekend, and see what the buzz is about. I’m predicting Public Enemies will be off 42% for a gross of $14.6 million.

The Proposal will round out the top 5, and has become the latest film of 2009 to join the century club [it reached the $100 million mark on Wednesday]. It’s a generic rom-com, but people like the pairing of Ryan Reynolds and Sandra Bullock. Expect The Proposal to drop by 35% for a gross of $8.3 million.

There is another new film coming out this weekend. Chris Columbus directs I Love You Beth Cooper. That’s right, Chris Columbus of Home Alone and Harry Potter fame. Unfortunately the film does not look very good, and early reviews would back me up. Rotten Tomatoes lists the film at 16%, as of me writing this. I predict the film will open with $6 million, and find life on DVD shelves soon.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) Bruno – $41 million
2) Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs – $19.6 million
3) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – $16 million
4) Public Enemies – $14.6 million
5) The Proposal – $8.32 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did!

Leave a Reply