Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up

A pretty decent weekend of predictions from me at the box office. I correctly guessed what the five films would be [unfortunately not in order as I was wrong about the #2 and #3 films], and the most I was off in my predictions was by $7.1 million. So here’s what happened:

The Proposal had a very strong opening landing in the #1 spot with $34.1 million [I was off $7.1 million in my prediction]. It had the strongest per theatre average in the top 10 with $11,163, and it had two leads that do their best work in romantic comedies. Sandra Bullock proved she can still be in a popular film if the material fits her [Note to Sandra – Continue to do romantic comedies and stay away from films like Premonition and Murder By Numbers]. Ryan Reynolds is beginning to cement his leading man status, as the opening of The Proposal is much better than his previous romantic comedy film Definitely, Maybe. That film took in $32.2 million its entire run! Everyone has to be happy with The Proposal’s opening because the budget it rumoured to be around $40 million, so it is a profitable venture. We’ll see how it holds up in its second week and if it will have some staying power.

The comedy hit of 2009 continued to show incredible legs at the box office. The Hangover grossed $26.8 million, and had its smallest weekend to weekend drop by being off only 18.1% from last weekend [I predicted it would be the #3 film, and I was off by $4 million in my prediction]. With this weekend’s gross, it has become the highest grossing comedy of 2009 as its total gross stands at $152.9 million. The previous champion, Paul Blart: Mall Cop, had a total gross of $146.3 million. I cannot recall the last time a film in the top 5 had a drop of less than 20%. The Hangover will break $200 million and will be one of the top films of the summer. I don’t think anyone would have predicted that at the start of the year.

Up also had a great hold, dropping only 30.6% to gross $21.3 million [I predicted it would be the #2 film and was off $1.7 million in my prediction]. Up is the second highest grossing film of 2009with a total of $224.1 million and i s close to being the #1 film of 2009, as Star Trek’s total gross is $239.4 million. Up shows again what great word of mouth can do for a film. The premise was interesting, but I didn’t know if it would appeal to a broad audience. Clearly people have embraced the story of Up , and it will be one of Pixar’s biggest hits. I don’t think it will get to $300 million, but it will be close.

Opening in 4th place is Year One with $20.2 million [I was off by $4.8 million in my prediction]. I think people will consider the opening disappointing considering it is an Apatow film and it is in the #4 spot. It’s per theatre average was $6,684, which is all right. It also is the 4th film this weekend that grossed over $20 million. Unfortunately, I do not see a lot of staying power for this film, and I would expect a big drop next weekend.

Dropping to 5th place is The Taking of Pelham 123 with a gross of $11.3 million, down 51.7% from last weekend [I was off $0.9 million in my prediction]. A drop this big shows that word of mouth is not high on this film, and it will be out of the Top 5 next weekend, and on DVD shelves soon.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

1) The Proposal – $27 million
2) Up – $23 million
3) The Hangover – $22.8 million
4) Year One – $15 million
5) The Taking of Pelham 123 – $10.4 million

And here are the final numbers:

1) The Proposal – $34.1 million
2) The Hangover – $26.8 million
3) Up – $21.3 million
4) Year One – $20.2 million
5) The Taking of Pelham 123 – $11.3 million

Next weekend brings us one of the most anticipated films of 2009 – Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

Check back next week for my predictions!

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