Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap Up

Week 2 of the summer movie box office is over, and I am still amazed at how people react to movies with their wallet.

This year we had Fast and Furious open with $70.9 million. I thought it was a dying franchise that didn’t create much interest in people. It was critically panned, but it showed how little I knew about predicting. Next came X-Men Origins: Wolverine. The movie was leaked, the reviews were also negative, and it opens with $85 million.

I thought that Star Trek would easily beat these openings, and I predicted $95 million. The hatred of the previous film and the TV shows had been replaced by nostalgia and a longing for Star Trek to return to the screen. It had a very slick marketing campaign, and reviews are some of the best for any film this year. So how come it only opened with $76.5 million [including Thursday night screenings]? Don’t get me wrong. I’m happy that it did this well, as it shattered the record of a Star Trek opening weekend number [previously held by Star Trek: First Contact with $30.7 million]. It will also become the highest grossing film in franchise history surpassing Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home gross of $109.7 million. Paramount should be pleaseD though, and although it didn’t have the largest opening weekend, I think it will gross more than X-Men Origins: Wolverine when all is said and done. I expect a strong hold next weekend.

So I was off by almost $20 million in my Star Trek prediction. Obviously not very good, but here’s where I can flaunt my prediction skills. I correctly picked the 2, 3, 4, and 5 films, and the largest amount I was off by was $0.6 million. That’s right! See below.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine fell to the number 2 spot by dropping 68.3% from its opening weekend to $27 million [I guessed $27.2 million]. That’s a big drop, and although summer films see a large amount of business up front, films that suffer a 65% drop or higher generally do not have a long run ahead of them. The hardcore fan base flocked to see this on opening weekend. Word of mouth has not been good, so do not expect a lot of repeat or new business. Still, when you count in overseas, X-Men Origins: Wolverine will make a lot of money for 20th Century Fox. It’s total gross stands at $129.6 million.

In 3rd place was Ghosts of Girlfriends Past. It fell from the number 2 spot last week, and its gross dropped 32.2% for a total of $10.4 million [my prediction was $10 million]. The fact that it had such a low drop from weekend to weekend shows that Warner Bros. counter-programming strategy worked, as this date flick is the only one out in the market place that appeals to the public. Its total gross stands at $30.2 million.

Falling one spot from 3rd to 4th was Obsessed. It was down 45.2% and grossed $6.6 million [I predicted $6 million]. This is turning into a nice little money maker for Sony, and is another feather in the cap of Beyonce. It’s total gross stands at $56.2 million.

And dropping from 4th place to 5th place was 17 Again. It fell 30.7% to $4.4 million [I predicted $3.9 million]. The Zac Efron starrer will fall out of the Top 5 next weekend, but it has been a decent performer in its time in theatres. Much like Beyonce, it shows that Zac Efron can be in a film that will not fade away fast, and he can do movies that are not musicals. It’s total gross stands at $54.1 million.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

1) Star Trek – $95 million
2) X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $27.2 million
3) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $10 million
4) Obsessed – $6 million
5) 17 Again – $3.9 million

And here are the actual numbers

1) Star Trek – $76.5 million [includes Thursday night screenings]
2) X-Men Origins: Wolverine – $27 million
3) Ghosts of Girlfriends Past – $10.4 million
4) Obsessed – $6.6 million
5) 17 Again – $4.4 million

Come back next week for my prediction for the next big summer film – Tom Hanks in Angels and Demons.

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