Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up

“Some analysts are predicting a softer opening between $50 – $65 million. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are right, but I’m going to be a little more liberal.” – Scotty G – March 6, 2008

The analysts were right on this one. Watchmen opened with $55.6 million, so I was off quite a bit from my liberal prediction. It opened strong on Friday, dropped by 25% on Saturday, and will drop even further on Sunday [we’ll get accurate Sunday numbers tomorrow]. Here’s the numbers:

Predictions:

1) Watchmen – $75 million
2) Slumdog Millionaire – $9 million
3) Madea Goes To Jail – $7.5 million
4) Taken – $6 million
5) He’s Just Not That Into You – $4.5 million

Actual Numbers

1) Watchmen – $55.6 million
2) Madea Goes to Jail – $8.8 million
3) Taken – $7.4 million
4) Slumdog Millionaire – $6.9 million
5) Paul Blart: Mall Cop – $4.2 million

Paramount and Warner Bros. must have mixed emotions about the opening. Good news – It was the third largest March opening weekend ever [behind 300 and Ice Age 2: The Meltdown], and it was the sixth largest opening for an R rated film ever. Bad News: Reviews were mixed and Saturday’s numbers were down from Friday, so it means there was large up front demand, but it might not have legs. With the 2H43M running time, and the face that the Watchmen are not as well known as some other superhero franchises, means that the road will be rough for the Watchmen in the weeks to come. We shall see.

Madea Goes to Jail continues to hold up well, dropping to number 2. This was a bit of a surprise to me, as Slumdog Millionaire was usually the number one movie at the box office during the week. Slumdog dropped to fourth [and would you complain if you were the number 4 movie in North America on your 17th week of release?]

Taken continues to surprise, and is the number 3 movie in the land at $7.4 million, and Paul Blart: Mall Cop returns to the top 5 grossing $4.2 million.

As good as the box office has been, there has been another film to have a massive drop off in it’s second weekend. Friday the 13th dropped over 80% in its second weekend, and this weekend The Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience dropped 77%, going from an opening weekend of over $12 million, to a gross this weekend of over $2 million.

The box office was up from last weekend, and was also up year to year. So 2009 is still on pace to be a great year.

Next weekend, Race To Witch Mountain, Miss March, and The Last House On The Left all open, so we’ll see if one of them can dethrone Watchmen from the #1 spot.

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