It’s Valentine’s Day weekend, so you would expect the weekend to be filled with romantic films that couples will go see. This one seems to be a little different, as the big release is the re-boot of Friday the 13th. Its biggest challenge will be Confessions of a Shopaholic. Both films have a lot going for it. People seem to be excited about Friday the 13th, as the trailers looked decent, but Confessions of a Shopaholic has the very important “Bruckheimer factor”. There is not much that Bruckheimer does that doesn’t turn to gold. Even panned films such as Armageddon have done incredibly well at the box office. So the question is – what will come out on top? I’m going to say that Friday the 13th wins. No other film in the market place can beat the hype, and the only thing that is holding it back is it’s R rating. No film has had a bigger opening this year than Paul Blart, but I think Friday the 13th will beat that. Reviews have been unkind, but no one cares about horror movies with bad reviews. It’s par for the course. I’m going to be conservative, and say it opens with $35 million
The big battle will be for number 2. Shopaholic will have to take on last week’s #1 film He’s Just Not That Into You. HJNTIY has much more star power, and has continued to be the #1 film throughout the week. Isla Fisher is a rising star [we all remember her from Wedding Crashers], so the big question is whether or not she can open a film? Like Friday the 13th, reviews have not been kind, but that doesn’t matter on Valentine’s Day. People want to see a romantic film, and they’ll get that with this. Despite all the logic in my head, I’m going to say Shopaholic will have a decent opening, and gross around $22 million.
I read Andy B’s review of Taken, and I agree. It’s a fun time waster, and Liam Neeson is excellent in it. Playing a Jack Bauer type character whose style of “to hell with the consequences” is a lot of fun to watch. The interesting thing about Taken is that it has been out overseas for quite sometime. It opened strong it’s first weekend, but the real story is the fact that it only had an 18% drop off in it’s 2nd weekend. It’s very rare for an action film to hold that well.
I can tell you what will bomb – Joaquin Phoenix’s new film Two Lovers. After his Letterman appearance, I think he has put off some people. Having said that, the film doesn’t have a big marketing push, so I didn’t expect it to do well anyways. At least Joaquin’s appearance gave Letterman one of the greatest exit lines to an interview – “Joaquin – sorry you couldn’t be here tonight!” Outstanding!
From that point on it’s a wild goose chase. The International opens with Clive Owen, people might want to catch up on their Oscar films as they near ceremony time. Coraline had a decent opening, and got some glowing review, so hopefully it will do all right in week 2.
So, here’s the predictions:
1) Friday the 13th – $35 million
2) Confessions of a Shopaholic – $22 million
3) He’s Just Not That Into You – $16 million
4) Taken – $12 million
5) Coraline – $10 million
I know – all Top 5 above $10 million. It’s been a strange start to ’09, as the box office is on pace to have a record setting year. This is my first prediction I’ve done for Biff Bam Pop!, so we’ll see how I do.
Talk to you on Sunday.