The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 vs Lincoln – Biff Bam Pop’s Box Office Predictions

This weekend sees the finale of one of the most commercially successful franchises in the history of filmmaking. It also happens to be one of the most reviled. Regardless of our personal feelings, there’s now doubt that The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 is going to be number one at the box office. The questions to ask – how much will it make, and how much will Skyfall take out of its audience. Here are our predictions:

The fifth film in the Twilight franchise is actually the second half of the fourth book; smelling money, producers and the studio did the Harry Potter move of splitting the finale into a two parter. It’s definitely a smart move for everyone involved, including the diehard fans who won’t feel shortchanged. The last film debut with an amazing $138 million virtually a year ago to the day of this new release and there’s no real reason to expect Breaking Dawn Part 2 to do any less. On that note, look for the film to bring in $142 million this weekend.

Find the rest of our weekend predictions after the jump!

Opening wide this weekend is Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, staring Oscar favourite Daniel Day-Lewis as the title character. Historical dramas are often a hard sell, even when Spielberg’s name is attached. However, there’s great buzz for Lincoln and it should have a decent opening. Look for a fourth place showing with $18 million.

Even though Breaking Dawn Part 2 may claim the hype this weekend, Skyfall should continue to enjoy big numbers, thanks to the massive critical and commercial success its been receiving. Look for the film to drop nearly 50% to bring in a still strong $44 million in its second weekend.

As for the rest of the top five, Wreck-It Ralph will continue to bring in families, landing in third place with $23 million, while Flight will close things out in fifth with $12 million.

So, to recap, here are our predictions:

1) The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 – $142 million
2) Skyfall – $44 million
3) Wreck-It Ralph – $23 million
4) Lincoln – $18 million
5) Flight – $12 million

Be sure to check back on Sunday to see how the weekend turns out!