Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of April 1st, 2011

Three new films enter the box office race this weekend with the hopes of dethroning the current champion Diary of a Wimpy Kid:  Rodrick Rules.  The films are the live-action//animated family film Hop, the Jake Gyllenhaal thriller Source Code and the horror film Insidious.  On the limited release side, quite a few films enter theatres (including a Best Picture winner) and some of those films are getting some good reviews from critics.  Here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:

Hop stars James Marsden and features the voice talent of Russell Brand and it is about the son of the Easter Bunny (who is named E.B.), who leaves his home to go to Hollywood to become a world famous drummer. While E.B. is away, someone rises to power to take his place, which threatens Easter. Will E.B. pursue his dream or save Easter? When coming up with my prediction, I took a look at a few hybrid animation//live-action films, but what I chose was a little all over the place. See below:



1999 – Stuart Little – $15 million opening weekend
2009 – G-Force – $31.7 million opening weekend
2010 – Despicable Me – $56.3 million opening weekend


Average Opening Weekend – $34.3 million


What’s funny is what the average works out to be is a pretty good representation of how I think the film will do. I don’t think that Hop will open as well as Rango, but I do think it will open in the $30 million range because kids will be geared up to see an Easter themed film with Easter less than a month away. Critics do not like this film, as Rotten Tomatoes has Hop listed at 23% positive as of this writing. Opening in 3,577 theatres, I’m predicting that Hop will finish in 1st place with a gross of $31 million.

Source Code stars Jake Gyllenhaal and is about a man who is a part of government program that allows soldiers to relive the last 8 minutes of someone else’s life. When it is discovered that a bomber is on a train, the plan is put into action as there is a larger threat to the city of Chicago. Gyllenhaal keeps reliving the last eight minutes of someone’s life on that train over and over to figure out clues to stop the larger attack. I did not use any films Gyllenhaal has starred in to make my prediction. Instead I focused on time travel films for my predictions:


1993 – Groundhog Day – $12.5 million opening weekend
1995 – 12 Monkeys – $13.8 million first weekend in wide release

2004 – The Butterfly Effect – $17 million opening weekend
2006 – Déjà Vu – $20.5 million opening weekend
2009 – The Time Traveler’s Wife – $18.6 million opening weekend


Average First Weekend of Wide Release – $16.48 million


I think the opening will be a little higher than the average because the premise is intriguing and critics are really getting behind this film. Rotten Tomatoes has Source Code listed at 88% positive as of this writing. Opening in 2,961 theatres, I’m predicting that Source Code will gross $19 million and finish in 2nd place.

The final new release of the weekend is the psychological horror film Insidious. The film stars Patrick Wilson and is about a family dealing with their house being haunted, except that maybe the house is not what is causing the haunting. I took a look at some horror films that were not franchises (The Omen was a reboot but wasn’t successful enough to make further films from). Here’s the list below:


2006 – The Omen – $16 million opening weekend
2007 – The Reaping – $10 million opening weekend
2009 – The Unborn – $19.8 million opening weekend
2009 – Orphan – $12.8 million opening weekend


Average Opening Weekend – $14.65 million


The average is a little high for my liking and I think when all is said and done Insidious will open just under $10 million. Critics are surprisingly very supportive of Insidious, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 67% positive as of this writing, which is definitely high for a horror film. Opening in 2,408 theatres, I’m predicting that Insidious will open with a gross of $9.5 million and finish in 5th place.


With Hop, Source Code and Insidious entering the top five, I’m predicting that Sucker Punch, The Lincoln Lawyer and Rango will be leaving the top five. Here is how I see the rest of the films breaking down:


Limitless held up well last weekend and I think it should do well again this weekend. I’m predicting that Limitless will drop 24% giving the film a gross of $11.4 million and a 3rd place finish.


Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules was the surprise #1 film last weekend, but I think the film will perform much like the first film did on its first weekend (Diary of a Wimpy Kid dropped 54.3% on its second weekend). I’m predicting that Diary of Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules will drop 56%, giving the film a gross of $10.4 million and a 4th place finish.


The Lincoln Lawyer had the best hold of any film in the top ten last weekend, and I think that trend will continue this weekend. I’m predicting that The Lincoln Lawyer will drop 21%, giving the film a gross of $8.5 million and a 6th place finish.


Zach Snyder’s Sucker Punch misfired last weekend and I don’t predict very good things happening to the film this weekend. This film should perform like most sci-fi films and have a steep drop-off on its second weekend of release. I’m predicting that Sucker Punch falls 62%, giving the film a gross of $7.4 million and a 7th place finish.


Rango continued to have a strong hold on the box office last weekend despite some new competition from Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules. There’s no reason to think that Hop is going to severely decline Rango’s performance this weekend, as Hop is geared towards younger kids while Rango appeals to a wider demographic. I’m predicting that Rango will fall 37% from last weekend, giving the film a gross of $6.1 million and an 8th place finish.


Paul posted a better than expected hold last weekend, and I think it will post a good, but not great hold this weekend. I’m predicting that Paul will drop 45%, giving the film a gross of $4.3 million and a 9th place finish.


To round out the top ten, I’m predicting that Battle: Los Angeles will drop 49%, giving the film a gross of $3.9 million.


In limited release:

The King’s Speech – The Best Picture winner is being re-released in theatres in an edited PG-13 version. It is being released in 1,011 theatres.


Cat Run – This film stars Paz Vega and is about two high school friends who start up a detective agency. Their first case involves an escort having a secret that causes a U.S. senator, the mob and an assassin to want her killed. Cat Run is being released in 103 theatres and has a 11% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


The Last Godfather – This film stars Harvey Keitel and is about a 1950’s mobster who brings his lovechild home from Korea to train him to be his successor in the mob, which is met with much resistance. The Last Godfather is being released in 58 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Trust – This drama is about a young girl who is targeted by an online sexual predator and how her encounter affects her personally as well as how it affects her family. Clive Owen and Catherine Keener star. Trust is being released in 28 theatres and has a 60% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Super – This comedy stars Rainn Wilson and Ellen Page and is about a man who sees his wife abducted and decides to become a superhero known as the “Crimson Bolt” in order to fight the bad guys and save the girl. Super is being released in 11 theatres and has a 54% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Queen to Play – This film stars Kevin Kline and Sandrine Bonnaire and is about a woman who discovers the game of chess and begins to learn the intricacies of the game. Queen to Play is being released in 6 theatres and has a 55% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Rubber – This is a horror film about a tire that is alone in the desert and suddenly comes to life. When it does, it decides to go on a killing spree and attacks anything in sight. Rubber is being released in 5 theatres and has a 48% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


In A Better World – This film is about two young boys that are friends whose friendship is tested when one boy asks the other to help him in an act of revenge. In A Better World is being released in 4 theatres and has a 79% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Wrecked – This film stars Adrian Brody and is about a man who wakes up in a wrecked car in the forest. He has no idea who he is and how he ended up in the car, but he must use all his instincts to survive and get away. Wrecked is being released in 1 theatre and has a 50% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


Circo – This documentary is about a family run circus in Mexico that is dealing with the decreasing popularity of circuses. Circo is being released in 1 theatre and has a 100% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.


So to recap, here are my predictions:


Hop – $31 million
Source Code – $19 million
Limitless – $11.4 million
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules – $10.4 million
Insidious – $9.5 million


Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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