The battle for first place was a tight one this weekend as two new releases were vying for the top spot, but after the smoke cleared Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules was the #1 film over the Zach Snyder sci-fi epic Sucker Punch. The result is great news for 20th Century Fox and the Diary of a Wimpy Kid franchise, and extremely disappointing for Warner Bros. and Zach Snyder. Although the fact that Diary of Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules is the #1 film is the big story of the weekend, what should also be noted is the strong holds for the films Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer. I had a terrible weekend of predictions, mainly due to the fact that I was way off on my prediction of Sucker Punch. I correctly had all five films in the top five, but only had one film finishing in its correct spot. There were no major stories of the films that opened in limited release this weekend, but a couple of films in limited release that expanded did very well. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Debuting in 1st place with a gross of $24.4 million is the comedy Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $24 million). Diary of a Wimpy Kid had a per theatre average of $7,704, which was the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten. The sequel had a better opening weekend than the original (Diary of a Wimpy Kid grossed $22.1 million on its opening weekend back in 2010), so its always a good sign when a sequel grosses more on its opening weekend than the previous installment. What’s also good news for the film is it really is the only live-action film geared towards kids that will be in release for the next little bit (Hop is a hybrid live-action//animated film so that’s why I’m making the above statement). 20th Century Fox is thrilled with the opening weekend as Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules has already made back its budget of $21 million, so anything the film makes from this point on is gravy. Its new goal will be to try and surpass the original’s gross of $64 million, so we’ll see if Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules accomplishes that in the coming weeks.
Debuting in 2nd place to disappointing results is the Zach Snyder sci-fi epic Sucker Punch with a gross of $19 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $43 million). Sucker Punch had a per theatre average of $6,269. I should have listened to the statistics and not gone with my gut this weekend, because the statistics showed that I would have been a lot closer in my prediction. Here are the films I used on Friday for my prediction and you’ll see why it is always not the best idea to listen to your gut:
2002 – Resident Evil – $17.7 million opening weekend
2003 – Underworld – $21.7 million opening weekend
2004 – Resident Evil: Apocalypse – $23 million opening weekend
2005 – Elektra – $12.8 million opening weekend
2005 – Aeon Flux – $12.6 million opening weekend
2006 – Underworld: Evolution – $26.8 million opening weekend
2006 – Ultraviolet – $9 million opening weekend
2007 – 300 – $70.8 million opening weekend
2007 – Resident Evil: Extinction – $23.6 million opening weekend
2009 – Underworld: Rise of the Lycans – $20.8 million opening weekend
2009 – Watchmen – $55.2 million opening weekend
2010 – Resident Evil: Afterlife – $26.6 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $26.7 million
Average Opening Weekend without Zack Snyder films in the list – $19.46 million
The long term prospects for Sucker Punch are not strong, as I would expect a heavy drop next weekend, because of the fact that the film is in the sci-fi genre. The film is definitely a disappointment because there was a fair bit of hype surrounding it and it shows that not everything Zach Snyder touches turns to gold (as the film took a beating from critics as well). Sucker Punch cost around $82 million to make, and Warner Bros. knows that after this weekend’s gross, it will not be making a profit from it’s domestic gross.
Dropping from 1st place to 3rd place is the Bradley Cooper//Robert De Niro thriller Limitless with a gross of $15.2 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $10.2 million). Limitless had a per theatre average of $5,428 and was down 19.5% from last weekend. It’s amazing to see that a film in the top five, with a hold as strong as it has, did not have the best hold of the films in the top ten or even the top five. What is good news is that the hold shows that audiences like the film and it should do well until the major releases of summer begin to be released in May. After ten days, Limitless has grossed $41.2 million from a budget of $27 million, so the film is making money for Relativity.
Staying in 4th place for the 2nd weekend in a row is the Matthew McConaughey thriller The Lincoln Lawyer with a gross of $11 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $9.1 million). The Lincoln Lawyer had a per theatre average of $4,064 and was down 16.7% from last weekend. The percentage hold was the best of any film in the top ten. This weekend is great news for The Lincoln Lawyer as a drop that low shows that word-of-mouth on the film is very strong and it should continue to play well over the coming weeks. The Lincoln Lawyer cost $40 million to make and after ten days, it has grossed $28.9 million, so it should be making back its money in the coming weeks.
Dropping from 2nd place to 5th place is the Johnny Depp animated film Rango with a gross of $9.8 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $9.75 million). The animated adventure had a per theatre average of $2,689 and dropped 35% from last weekend’s gross. The hold for Rango continues to be strong each weekend (it has had a drop below 40% the past three weekends), so audiences like the film. After four weekends, Rango has grossed $106.3 million from a budget of $135 million.
Battle: Los Angeles dropped from 3rd place to 6th place with a gross of $7.6 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $6.2 million). Battle: Los Angeles had a per theatre average of $2,437 and was down 47.7% from last weekend. Battle: Los Angeles help up better this weekend than last weekend, but it is not the hit film that Sony Pictures was hoping it would be. After three weeks, the sci-fi adventure has grossed $72.5 million from a budget of $70 million, so it is making money for Sony Pictures.
Dropping from 5th place to 7th place is the Simon Pegg//Nick Frost//Seth Rogen sci-fi comedy Paul with a gross of $7.5 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $5.5 million). Paul had a per theatre average of $2,575 and was down 42.5% from last weekend. The hold is better than you would expect for a sci-fi comedy, as I definitely thought the drop would be higher, but it seems to have found its audience and should be a film that comes close to making back its budget. The budget for Paul is $40 million, and after two weeks, Paul has grossed $24.6 million.
Dropping from 6th place to 8th place is the Amanda Seyfried//Gary Oldman thriller Red Riding Hood with a gross of $4.3 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $3.3 million). Red Riding Hood had a per theatre average of $1,599 and was down 39.6% from its opening weekend gross. After three weeks, Red Riding Hood has grossed $32.4 million from a budget of $42 million, so it should finish up its time in theatres grossing around what it cost to make.
Dropping from 7th place to 9th place is the Matt Damon//Emily Blunt thriller The Adjustment Bureau with a gross of $4.2 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $2.8 million). The Adjustment Bureau had a per theatre average of $1,860 and was down 26.5% from last weekend. After four weeks, The Adjustment Bureau has grossed $54.8 million from a budget of $62 million, so it should be able to finish its run around what its budget is.
Dropping from 8th place to 10th place is the animated sci-fi adventure Mars Needs Moms with a gross of $2.186 million (I predicted a 10th place finish and a gross of $2.75 million). Mars Needs Moms narrowly got the 10th place spot as Beastly finished in 11th place with a gross of $2.185 million. Mars Needs Moms had a per theatre average $1,007 and was down 58.9 % from last weekend (the per theatre average and percentage drop were the worst of any film in the top ten). After three weeks, Mars Needs Moms has grossed $19.1 million from a budget of $150 million.
In other news, the Adam Sandler comedy Just Go With It crossed the $100 million mark, and the film has now grossed $100.2 million.
Win Win was the best performing film of the weekend as it saw its box office gross rise 213.2% from last weekend as it grossed $471,000. It has now grossed $679,000 in two weeks.
The remake of Jane Eyre also performed well as it was up 110.8% from last weekend as it grossed $983,000. Jane Eyre has now grossed $1.898 million in three weeks.
In limited release:
The 5th Quarter – This drama stars Aidan Quinn and Andie MacDowell and is about the true story of Jon Abbate, who overcame his younger brother’s tragic death to lead the Wake Forest Demon football team. The 5th Quarter grossed $219,000 from 123 theatres giving the film a per theatre average of $1,780.
Potiche – This comedy stars Catherine Deneuve and Gerard Depardieu and is about a trophy housewife who is given the opportunity to run an umbrella factory after her husband loses the respect of his workers. To everyone’s surprise, she is a good boss, which doesn’t sit well with her husband. Potiche grossed $85,000 from 7 theatres giving the film a per theatre average of $12,143.
Miral – This film is from acclaimed director Julian Schnabel and is about the lives of four women who fight for human rights despite the savagery of war that surrounds them. Miral grossed $65,000 from 4 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $16,250.
Mia and the Migoo – This animated film is about a girl named Mia and a group of forest spirits who team up to save the Earth, the Tree of Life and Mia’s father from an evil group of developers. Mia and the Migoo grossed $17,200 from 1 theatre giving it the same per theatre average.
White Irish Drinkers, Peep World, and Illegal have not reported their grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
Sucker Punch – $43 million
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules – $24 million
Limitless – $10.2 million
Rango – $9.75 million
The Lincoln Lawyer – $9.1 million
And here are the actual numbers:
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules – $24.4 million
Sucker Punch – $19 million
Limitless – $15.2 million
The Lincoln Lawyer – $11 million
Rango – $9.8 million
My predictions were off by $31.55 million.
Next weekend, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules looks to be the #1 film for a second weekend in a row against three new films: the animated//live-action Easter comedy Hop, the sci-fi thriller Source Code starring Jake Gyllenhaal and the horror film Insidious starring Patrick Wilson. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
