Limitless was the #1 film at the box office this weekend, defeating last week’s champion Battle: Los Angeles. The other two new releases, The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul, did debut in the top five, but I would say that their debuts were average at best, and nothing to get too excited about. I didn’t really have a great weekend of predictions, although I did predict all five films in the top five, but I only got one in order. The most I was off in any of my predictions was $6 million, but it wasn’t a stellar week for me. In limited release, two films opened to excellent results, while other will be out of theatres very soon. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Debuting in 1st place is the Bradley Cooper//Robert De Niro thriller Limitless with a gross of $19 million (I predicted a 2ndplace finish and a gross of $18 million). Limitless had a per theatre average of $6,894, which was the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten. Despite having only the 6th highest theatre count of any film currently in theatres, the premise was enough to draw people in to see the film. We’ll see how well the film holds up next weekend, as I have a feeling that Sucker Punch is going to be the #1 film next weekend. Limitless has a budget of $27 million, so the film is definitely going to make a profit for Relativity, and become the highest grossing title in the studios short history.
Staying in 2nd place for the second weekend in a row is the Johnny Depp animated film Rango with a gross of $15.3 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $14.5 million). The animated adventure had a per theatre average of $3,985 and dropped 32.2% from last weekend. The hold for Rango has been good each weekend (it has had a drop below 40% the past two weekends), so this is a film that is resonating with audiences, although I’m sure Paramount would have preferred to see the per theatre average a little closer to $5,000. After three weekends, Rango has grossed $92.5 million from a budget of $135 million.
Battle: Los Angeles dropped from 1st place to 3rd place with a gross of $14.6 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $20.6 million). Battle: Los Angeles had a per theatre average of $4,273 and was down an extremely high 59% from last weekend, which was the largest percentage drop of any film in the top ten. I was way off in my prediction, and to prove how wrong I was, here’s what I wrote on Friday “The sci-fi action film seems to have decent word-of-mouth going for it”. Shows how much I know when it comes to Battle: Los Angeles. After two weeks, the sci-fi adventure has grossed $60.6 million from a budget of $70 million, so it should be making a profit for Sony by next weekend.
Debuting in 4th place is the Matthew McConaughey thriller The Lincoln Lawyer with a gross of $13.4 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $16 million). The Lincoln Lawyer had a per theatre average of $4,950 so its right around the average that you hope a new release will be at. The opening was in line with the films that I used to make my prediction forThe Lincoln Lawyer with. See below:
1996 – A Time to Kill – $14.8 million opening weekend
2005 – Two for the Money – $8.7 million opening weekend
2007 – Fracture – $11 million opening weekend
2009 – Law Abiding Citizen – $21 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $13.9 million
I think that The Lincoln Lawyer should hold up well in the coming weeks as it really is the only major adult drama that is in release right now that is receiving strong reviews (Limitless is a film that skews a bit to the younger demographics in my opinion). The Lincoln Lawyer cost $40 million to make, so it does have its work cut out for it to make back its budget, but it is possible.
Debuting in 5th place is the Simon Pegg//Nick Frost//Seth Rogen sci-fi comedy Paul with a gross of $13.1 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $7.5 million). Paul had a per theatre average of $4,695, which like The Lincoln Lawyer is an average opening weekend per theatre average. I would think that Universal would be happy with the opening weekend as it is the highest grossing opening weekend for Simon Pegg and Nick Frost, although for the U.S. audiences I would say that Seth Rogen is more prominently featured in the advertising campaign. Sci-fi comedy seems to be a difficult genre for a film to become a hit, so I would think that Paul might suffer a big decline next weekend. The budget for Paul is $40 million, but unlike The Lincoln Lawyer, I don’t think that Paul will be making back its budget. We’ll have to wait and see how it performs in the coming weeks.
Dropping from 3rd place to 6th place is the Amanda Seyfried//Gary Oldman thriller Red Riding Hood with a gross of $7.2 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $6.4 million). Red Riding Hood had a per theatre average of $2,394 and was down 48.2% from its opening weekend gross. After ten days, Red Riding Hood has grossed $25.9 million from a budget of $42 million, which I’m sure is not making Warner Bros. very happy.
Dropping from 4th place to 7th place is the Matt Damon//Emily Blunt thriller The Adjustment Bureau with a gross of $5.9 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $6.3 million). The Adjustment Bureau had a per theatre average of $2,230 and was down 48.9% from last weekend. After three weeks, The Adjustment Bureau has grossed $48.7 million from a budget of $62 million, so it should be able to finish its run with a profit, but I’m sure Universal was hoping that the film would be a bigger hit.
Dropping from 5th place to 8th place is the animated sci-fi adventure Mars Needs Moms with a gross of $5.3 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $3.1 million). Mars Needs Moms had a per theatre average $1,706 and was down 23.1 % from last weekend (the percentage drop was the lowest of any film in the top ten). Although the percentage drop is good news for the film, Mars Needs Moms is still the biggest flop of the year as after 10 days the film has grossed $15.4 million from a budget of $150 million.
Dropping from 6th place to 9th place is Beastly with a gross of $3.2 million (I predicted a 10th place finish and a gross of $2.4 million). Beastly had a per theatre average of $1,801 and was down 35.1% from last weekend. After three weeks of release, Beastly has grossed $22.2 million from a budget of $17 million, so the film is making money for CBS Films.
Dropping from 7th place to 10th place is the Owen Wilson comedy Hall Pass with a gross of $2.6 million (I predicted a 9thplace finish and a gross of $3 million). Hall Pass had a per theatre average of $1,365, and was down 48.1% from last weekend (The per theatre average was the lowest of all the films in the top ten). After four weeks, Hall Pass has grossed $39.5 million from a $36 million budget, so Warner Bros. is now making money from the film.
In limited release:
Bill Cunningham New York – This documentary is about Bill Cunningham, a New York Times fashion photographer and the fashion trends he has followed and photographed over the years. Bill Cunningham New York grossed $33,700 from 1 theatre giving the film the same per theatre average, which was also the highest per theatre average of any film in release.
Win Win – This comedy stars Paul Giamatti and is about a struggling attorney who also coaches a high-school wrestling team and deals with one of his client’s kids along the way. Win Win grossed $154,000 from 5 theatres giving the film an amazing per theatre average of $30,800, which is the 2nd highest per theatre average of any film in release.
Winter in Wartime – This drama is about a young boy in Nazi-occupied Holland that helps a wounded British soldier. His actions cause him to be part of the resistance to stop the Nazis, and to take the step from childhood to adulthood in rather dramatic fashion. Winter in Wartime grossed $16,200 from 3 theatres giving the film a per theatre average of $5,400.
The Music Never Stopped – This film stars J.K. Simmons and is about a relationship between a father and son that is strained after the son runs away from home after being banned from seeing a Grateful Dead concert. They reunite years later, only to find out that the son needs a brain operation to remove a tumor, but the procedure will not allow him to create new memories. Through music, the father tries to connect with his son. For fans of the film “Awakenings”, The Music Never Stopped is based on a case study by Dr. Oliver Sacks, who was also the man behind the story of “Awakenings”. The Music Never Stopped grossed $88,500 from 32 theatres giving the film a disappointing per theatre average of $2,766.
Desert Flower – This drama is based on the true life story of model Waris Dirie and her struggle of growing up in Somalia, being sold into a fixed marriage, to her ascent as a supermodel and now as a UN Spokesperson that speaks out against female genital cutting. Desert Flower grossed $8,000 from 3 theatres giving the film a terrible per theatre average of $2,667.
The Butcher, the Chef and the Swordsman, Alabama Moon, and Cracks have not reported their grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
- Battle: Los Angeles – $20.6 million
- Limitless – $18 million
- The Lincoln Lawyer – $16 million
- Rango – $14.5 million
- Paul – $7.5 million
And here are the actual numbers:
- Limitless – $19 million
- Rango – $15.3 million
- Battle: Los Angeles – $14.6 million
- The Lincoln Lawyer – $13.4 million
- Paul – $13.1 million
My predictions were off by $16 million.
Next weekend, Limitless looks to be the #1 film for a second weekend in a row against two new films: the Zach Snyder sci-fi adventure epic Sucker Punch and the comedy sequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
