There was quite the battle at the box office this weekend. Three of the four new major releases grossed more than $25 million, and all four new films took the top four spots at the box office. The top two films were neck and neck and could change spots when the final numbers come out on Monday. As of right now, the Adam Sandler comedy Just Go With It has a very slight lead over Justin Bieber: Never Say Never for first place. What is amazing is that even though these two films were battling for the top two spots at the box office, it is not the big story of the weekend. That distinction belongs to the 3rd place film, which you’ll see below. The overall box office definitely got a big boost this weekend, but the overall box office was still way off from last year’s levels. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
The Adam Sandler//Jennifer Aniston comedy Just Go With It proved to be the most popular choice among moviegoers this weekend as it grossed $31 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $39 million). Just Go With It had a per theatre average of $8,737. The film had an opening pretty close to the average of the films I used in my predictions. See the list below:
1998 – The Wedding Singer – $18.8 million opening weekend
1998 – The Waterboy – $39.4 million opening weekend
1999 – Big Daddy – $41.5 million opening weekend
2000 – Little Nicky – $16 million opening weekend
2002 – Mr. Deeds – $37.1 million opening weekend
2003 – Anger Management – $42.2 million opening weekend
2004 – Along Came Polly – $27.7 million opening weekend
2004 – 50 First Dates – $39.8 million opening weekend
2005 – The Longest Yard – $47.6 million opening weekend
2006 – The Break-Up – $39.1 million opening weekend
2006 – Click – $40 million opening weekend
2007 – I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – $34.2 million opening weekend
2008 – You Don’t Mess with the Zohan – $38.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Bedtime Stories – $27.4 million opening weekend
2009 – Funny People – $22.6 million opening weekend
2010 – The Bounty Hunter – $20.6 million opening weekend
2010 – Grown Ups – $40.5 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $33.7 million
Just Go With It Opening Weekend – $31 million.
I thought the film would do better, only because Sandler’s last film to open around Valentine’s Day – 50 First Dates – had an opening weekend close to $40 million. Still, Sandler continues to be a force at the box office and a consistent performer for Sony Pictures. What he touches turns into money, and that’s what businesses care about the most – profits! Just Go With It should be able to post a strong hold next weekend, as the three new releases are not romances or comedies, leaving that market all for Just Go With It. We’ll see how it holds.
Debuting in 2nd place is the music documentary Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with a gross of $30.2 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $27 million). Justin Bieber: Never Say Never had a per theatre average of $9,746, which was the highest per theatre average of any film in the top ten. When it came to popularity, you can see that Bieber rivals that of Miley Cyrus at her peak as both Miley’s film and Justin’s film are pretty close in terms of opening weekend gross. See below:
2008 – Hannah Montana//Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour – $31.1 million opening weekend
2009 – Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience – $12.5 million opening weekend
2009 – Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $23.2 million opening weekend
2011 – Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $30.2 million opening weekend
The thing with the Bieber film is that it shouldn’t hold up. Hardcore fans went to see the film this weekend, but I don’t know how much repeat business it is going to get. It could be the #1 film when final numbers come out on Monday, but I think this film is more of a short term winner than a long term performer. Having said that, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never only had a budget of $13 million and it made close to three times that this weekend, so Paramount is absolutely thrilled with the film’s performance, and as I said in my summary of Just Go With It, the bottom line is to make money!
The big story of the weekend is the 3rd place film, which is Gnomeo and Juliet with a gross of $25.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $8.8 million). Gnomeo and Juliet had a per theatre average of $8,517. I don’t think anyone really thought Gnomeo and Juliet would gross more than $15 million, let alone $25 million. This film was released by Touchstone Pictures, so it was technically still in the Disney family, but not having the Disney or Pixar brand name behind the film and it still reaches $25 million is incredible. I’m absolutely stunned by how well Gnomeo and Juliet did this weekend, so awareness was a lot higher than I thought it was which means you have to give Touchstone Pictures credit for its marketing campaign. Reviews weren’t the best, so the fact that it hit $25.5 million is pretty amazing, as parents care about reviews of kids films. We’ll see how well it holds next weekend!
Debuting in 4th place is the Channing Tatum//Jamie Bell adventure epic The Eagle with a gross of $8.5 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $5.6 million). The Eagle had a per theatre average of $3,741 which is not a good result for the film. The Eagle debuted in the middle of my two predictions that I used on Friday. See below:
2007 – Pathfinder – $5 million opening weekend
2011 – Season of the Witch – $10.6 million opening weekend
2011 – The Eagle – $8.5 million opening weekend
What is also a point of concern is that the two films I used in my predictions were flops, so The Eagle looks to join them in that category. The Eagle should disappear from theatres shortly as there a ton of major new releases in the next few weeks, which will push The Eagle out of the top ten very quickly (if not next weekend, then the weekend after that). The expectations for The Eagle were low, so Focus Features can’t really be that surprised by the debut of the film.
Dropping from 1st place to 5th place is The Roommate with a gross of $8.4 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $5.85 million). The Roommate had a per theatre average of $3,315 and the film was down 44% from last weekend. The fact that the percentage drop was less than 50% is a good sign for the film as most horror films do suffer bigger drops on their second weekend. After two weeks, The Roommate has grossed $26 million from a budget of only $16 million.
Dropping from 4th place to 6th place is The King’s Speech with a gross of $7.4 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $6.4 million). The King’s Speech had a per theatre average of $3,275 and the film was down only 3.9% from last weekend, which is the best hold of any film in the top ten for the third weekend in a row. After twelve weeks, The King’s Speech has grossed $84.1 million from a budget of only $15 million.
No Strings Attached dropped from 3rd place to 7th place with a gross of $5.6 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $5.8 million). No Strings Attached had a per theatre average of $2,048 and was down 29.5% from last weekend. After four weeks, No Strings Attached has grossed $59.8 million from a budget of only $25 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 8th place is Sanctum with a gross of $5.1 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $4.2 million). Sanctum had a per theatre average of $1,840, and the film dropped 45.7% from its opening weekend. The percentage drop was the highest of any of the films in the top ten. After two weeks, Sanctum has grossed a very disappointing $17.5 million from a budget of $30 million.
Dropping from 8th place to 9th place is the Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin western True Grit with a gross of $3.7 million (I predicted a 10th place finish and a gross of $2.9 million). True Grit had a per theatre average of $1,819 and its gross was down 18.8% from last weekend. After eight weeks, True Grit has grossed $160.8 million from a budget of $38 million.
The Green Hornet dropped from 5th place to 10th place with a gross of $3.6 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $3.4 million). The Green Hornet had a per theatre average of $1,722, and was down 39.7% from last weekend. The per theatre average was the lowest of all the films in the top ten. After five weeks, The Green Hornet has grossed $92.3 million from a budget of $120 million.
In limited release:
Cedar Rapids – This film stars Ed Helms, Anne Heche and John C. Reilly and is about an insurance salesman who is representing his company at a convention and lets loose for the first time in his life. Cedar Rapids grossed $311,000 from 15 theatres giving the film a per theatre average of $20,733, the highest per theatre average of any film in release.
Vidal Sassoon: The Movie – This film is a documentary about the hair icon. The film grossed $14,300 from one theatre.
2011 Oscar Shorts, Carancho, Orgasm Inc. and The Sky Turns (El Cielo Gira) did not report their box office grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
Just Go With It – $39 million
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $27 million
Gnomeo and Juliet – $8.8 million
The King’s Speech – $6.4 million
The Roommate – $5.85 million
And here are the actual numbers:
Just Go With It – $31 million
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never – $30.2 million
Gnomeo and Juliet – $25.5 million
The Eagle – $8.5 million
The Roommate – $8.4 million
My predictions were off by $33.35 million.
Next weekend, Just Go With It and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never will battle for the top spot of the box office with the Martin Lawrence comedy sequel Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, the Liam Neeson thriller Unknown and the sci-fi adventure I Am Number Four. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
