Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of February 4th, 2011

The Rite was the number one film at the box office last weekend and this weekend it looks to defend its title against two films that look to give audiences chills and thrills. There is the horror film The Roommate and the thriller Sanctum. The overall box office is so weak right now that both films have legitimate chances of being #1 at the box office. The question is what film will come out on top? Here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:

Sanctum is produced by James Cameron and follows a group of adventurers who get stuck in a cave during a storm and have to try and make their way out before the caves fill with water. The film is being marketed as if it were a James Cameron film, because there is no star power in it. I doubt most people know who Richard Roxburgh and Ioan Gruffudd are, although I’m sure they recognize their faces from the films they’ve been in. The critics say the film is gorgeous to look at, but the story is weak, and that is why it only has a 33% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. The 3-D in the film will help its box office gross, and with Cameron’s name behind it, people will know that the 3-D is as good as Avatar’s was (both were shot in 3-D) and is not like the post-conversion 3-D of such films as Clash of the Titans and The Last Airbender. Opening in 2,789 theatres, I’m predicting a 1st place finish for Sanctum with a gross of $14.2 million.

The Roommate stars Leighton Meester and Minka Kelly and is about two girls who are roommates in college. Unfortunately, one of them is a little crazy and causes havoc in the other’s life. The film is rated PG-13, which is never a good sign for a horror film, but the young actresses are known for their work on Gossip Girl and Friday Night Lights so they are trying to get their fan bases out to support the film. Critics don’t have much to say about The Roommate as it was not screened for critics, which is never a good sign. I think the lack of star power and the fact that it has a PG-13 rating will hurt the chances of The Roommate being the #1 film. Opening in 2,534 theatres, I’m predicting a gross of $8.2 million for The Roommate and a 4th place finish.

With The Roommate and Sanctum entering the top five, I’m predicting that The Rite and The Green Hornet will be leaving the top five. Here is how I see the rest of the films breaking down:

The King’s Speech will continue to build on the momentum it has gained from awards season and it now looks to be the front runner at this year’s Academy Awards. I’m predicting that The King’s Speech will drop 5% from last weekend, giving the film a gross of $10.5 million and a 2nd place finish.

No Strings Attached should continue to post a strong hold this weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 34% and a gross of $8.8 million, giving No Strings Attached a 3rd place finish.

The Mechanic might lose some of its audience to Sanctum this weekend, but I think it should be able to retain the majority of its audience as there are not too many action films in release. I’m predicting the Jason Statham pic will fall 29% giving The Mechanic a gross of $8 million and a 5th place finish

True Grit should post another good hold as it continues to be a strong performer for adult audiences. I’m predicting a drop of 10% giving True Grit a gross of $6.75 million and a 6th place finish.

The Green Hornet will suffer more than last weekend as it will be losing some 3-D screens this weekend to Sanctum. I’m predicting a drop of 39% for The Green Hornet giving it a gross of $6.7 million and a 7th place finish.

The Rite should suffer a big fall, as it is a horror film, critics don’t like it and the new films of the weekend are going after the same audience. I’m predicting a drop of 57% giving The Rite a gross of $6.3 million and an 8th place finish.

Black Swan is a film that I think is starting to lose its momentum. Natalie Portman is as saturated as she can be in the market, and I think the majority of people who want to see the film, have now seen the film. I’m predicting a drop of 19%, which gives Black Swan a gross of $4.1 million and a 9th place finish.

The Dilemma will round out the top ten as I’m predicting a drop of 40%, which gives the film a gross of $3.36 million and a 10th place finish.

In limited release:

What Women Want (Wo Zhi Nu Run Xin) – This film is being released in 26 theatres and does not have a review at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Waiting for Forever – This film stars Rachel Bilson and is about a boy and a girl who were high school sweethearts. She moves on to follow her dreams, while he never is able to let her go. When fate brings them back together, how will it end? Waiting for Forever is being released in 3 theatres and has a 10% positive rating at
Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

The Other Woman – This film stars Natalie Portman and it is a drama about a woman who was the reason her husband broke off his previous marriage. They now have a kid together, but when the child dies, Portman’s character beings to re-evaluate her life and tries to make the best of a bad situation. The Other Woman is being released in 2 theatres and has a 36% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Cold Weather – This film is about a man who is great at being a detective, even though he works at a dead end job. When his ex-girlfriend goes missing, the man uses his skills to try and solve the kidnapping. Cold Weather is being released in 1 theatre and has a 79% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Dressed – This documentary is about fashion designer Nary Manivong and how she went from being homeless in Columbus, Ohio to being an acclaimed designer in the fashion world. Dressed is being released in 1 theatre and does not have a review at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

Sanctum – $14.2 million
The King’s Speech – $10.5 million
No Strings Attached – $8.8 million
The Roommate – $8.2 million
The Mechanic – $8 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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