Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

The two new films took the top two spots this weekend, but there was very little to cheer about as grosses across the board were very disappointing. My predictions were terrible, as I completely overestimated the gross for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. Films in limited release faired much better, but it truly was a horrendous weekend at the box office. Here’s how the box office broke down:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader debuted in 1st place with a gross of $24.5 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $60 million). The film had a per theatre average of $6,892. What else can be said about this debut other than it was a disaster. Disney looks incredibly smart in getting rid of this franchise, and Fox looks to have a bomb on their hands. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader was not even close to the opening weekend grosses of the previous two installments in the franchise. See below:

2005 – The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe – $65.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Prince Caspian – $55 million opening weekend
2010 – The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – $24.5 million opening weekend

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader opened on the same weekend as the original did five years ago, and it didn’t have much in the way of competition as Tangled and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One had been out for awhile, and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader was shown in 3-D (a first for the franchise), which boosted ticket prices. This is an absolute disastrous debut, and I would think that chances of a fourth installment are dead after this weekend. The budget for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a reported $155 million, and I don’t think the film will make back even half of that domestically.

Debuting in 2nd place is the Angelina Jolie/Johnny Depp thriller The Tourist with a gross of $17 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $27 million). The Tourist had a per theatre average of $6,168. The gross has to be considered a disappointment considering the last two films these actors have done that were geared towards adults did quite a bit better on their opening weekends. See below:

2009 – Public Enemies – $25.2 million opening weekend
2010 – Salt – $36 million opening weekend
2010 – The Tourist – $17 million opening weekend

Reviews were not strong, but I thought the power of Jolie and Depp would get audiences into theatres. I was wrong. The budget is listed at $100 million, and I don’t see how The Tourist will hit that total in its domestic run.

Tangled drops from 1st to 3rd place with a gross of $14.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $10.1 million). Tangled had a per theatre average of $4,084, and was down 32.6% from last weekend. Audiences are responding to the film, and although it will not be a mega-blockbuster and it will not make back its budget from its domestic total (the budget is rumoured to be around $240 million), it is a confidence boost for Disney animation, as they can still make animated films that are hits at the box office, and are not part of the Pixar brand. After three weekends, Tangled has grossed $115.6 million.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One dropped down from 2nd place to 4th place with a gross of $8.5 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $6.9 million). The per theatre average for the film was $2,376, and the film was down 50.1% from last weekend, which for the second weekend in a row was the largest percentage drop of any film in the top ten. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One continues to set franchise worst’s with every passing weekend. This weekend the fourth weekend percentage drop was tied for second worst in franchise history and the $8.5 million gross on its fourth weekend was the worst in franchise history. See below for how the films in the franchise stack up on their fourth weekends:

Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $14.7 million / Down 37.7%
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $10 million / Down 68.6%
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $11.2 million / Down 37.6%
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $10.2 million / Down 48.4%
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $9.5 million / Down 46.3%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $8.9 million / Down 50.1%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One – $8.5 million / Down 50.1%

On a positive note, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One became the 6th highest grossing title in franchise history. See below:

1) Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $317.5 million
2) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $301.9 million
3) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $292 million
4) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $290 million
5) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $261.9 million

6) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One – $257.6 million
7) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $249.5 million

Unfortunately for the film, I don’t know if Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One will cross $300 million anymore, and I think it may only finish as the 5th highest grossing film in franchise history when all is said and done. We’ll have to wait and see.

Unstoppable continues its steady run at the box office as it drops from 4th place to 5th place with a gross of $3.7 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $2.6 million). Unstoppable had a per theatre average of $1,264 and was down only 37.2% from last weekend. Unstoppable held up well even with the competition of The Tourist this weekend, and has been the model of consistency since its release. After five weeks, Unstoppable has grossed $74.2 million, which gets it closer to its budget of $100 million, although I would be surprised if it made back its budget.

In quite a surprise, moving up from 13th place to 6th place is the Natalie Portman drama Black Swan with a gross of $3.3 million (I did not make a prediction on this film). Black Swan added 72 more theatres this weekend to up its theatre count to 90 and with the additional theatres the film improved 130.8% from last weekend and the film had a sizzling per theatre average of $37,022, which was easily the highest of any film in the top ten. The film has been receiving glowing reviews, especially for Natalie Portman who seems to be a lock for a Best Actress nomination for her performance. The film will definitely make back its budget, which is listed at $13 million, as after two weeks of being in limited release, Black Swan has grossed $5.6 million.

Burlesque dropped from 3rd place to 7th place with a gross of $3.2 million (I predicted a gross of $2.7 million and a 6th place finish). Burlesque had a per theatre average of $1,113, and was down 47.8% from last weekend. Burlesque might not be in the top ten next weekend, as three new releases come out, and the films that are Oscar contenders will slowly begin to expand their theatre counts, pushing films like Burlesque out of the spotlight. After three weeks, Burlesque has grossed $32.5 million and will not make back its budget of $55 million.

Love and Other Drugs dropped from 5th place to 8th place with a gross of $3 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $3 million). Love and Other Drugs had a per theatre average of $1,339 and was down 46.9% from last weekend. The Jake Gyllenhaal/Anne Hathaway dramedy will be on DVD shelves soon, as like Burlesque, it will be losing a lot of its theatres next weekend to new releases and films that are expanding. After three weeks, Love and Other Drugs has grossed $27.6 million, and should be able to at least break even, it’s budget was an estimated $30 million.

Dropping from 7th place to 9th place is the comedy Due Date with a gross of $2.54 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $2.2 million). Due Date had a per theatre average of $1,279 and was down 38.4% from last weekend. Due Date has now grossed $94.8 million in six weeks from a budget of $65 million, and should be able to cross $100 million when all is said and done.

Dropping from 6th place to 10th place is the animated film Megamind with a gross of $2.51 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $2.1 million). Megamind had a per theatre average of $1,035 and the film was down 49.2% from last weekend. Megamind is definitely not the hit people thought it would be, but it did make back its budget of $130 million and after six weeks has grossed $140.2 million, but it will become the lowest grossing DreamWorks Animation film since 2006’s Over The Hedge, which grossed $155 million.

In limited release:

The Tempest – Julie Taymor directs an all-star cast in this adaptation of Shakespeare’s last play. The film grossed $45,000 from 5 theatres giving The Tempest a per theatre average of $9,000.

The Fighter – This film stars Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale and is a based on the true life story of Micky “Irish” Ward, a boxer most famous for his fights against Arturo Gotti. The film chronicles Ward’s rise in professional boxing in the 1980’s and grossed $320,000 from 4 theatres giving it a whopping per theatre average of $80,000, which was easily the highest of any film in release.

Hemingway’s Garden of Eden, And Everything Is Going Fine and Shoah did not report their grosses as of this writing.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – $60 million
The Tourist – $27 million
Tangled – $10.1 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One – $6.9 million
Love and Other Drugs – $3 million

And here are the actual numbers:

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – $24.5 million
The Tourist – $17 million
Tangled – $14.5 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One – $8.5 million
Unstoppable – $3.7 million

My predictions were off by $52.6 million.

Next weekend, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader looks to be the #1 film for a second weekend in a row against the Paul Rudd/Reese Witherspoon/Jack Nicholson dramedy How Do You Know, everyone’s favourite bear from Jellystone Park Yogi Bear, and the sci-fi epic Tron: Legacy. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

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