Two major films come out this weekend with the hopes of removing Tangled from the top of the box office. Families will be going to the movies to see The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader while adults will be going to see the Angelina Jolie//Johnny Depp thriller The Tourist. While those films look to battle for box office supremacy, quite a few smaller films come out this weekend with the hopes of generating some Oscar buzz. Here is how I see the weekend breaking down:
The Chronicles of Narnia returns to theatres this weekend with the 3rd chapter, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. This installment follows Lucy and Edmund Pevensie travelling along the famous ship known as the Dawn Treader with their cousin Eustace and Prince Caspian. On their travels they encounter new friends and new enemies as they head towards the end of the world. This installment almost never came to be as Disney gave up the rights to the franchise after the disappointing gross for Prince Caspian (disappointing in terms of overall gross compared to the 1st film which grossed $291 million, but Prince Caspian actually had a very solid take of $141 million). 20th Century Fox snapped up the rights and the film came to be. When coming up with my prediction, I checked out the opening weekend grosses of the two other films in the franchise. Here’s how they did:
2005 – The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe – $65.5 million opening weekend.
2008 – Prince Caspian – $55 million opening weekend.
Average Opening Weekend – $60.25 million
The first installment of the franchise opened on December 9th, 2005 (five years and a day to this release) so The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is hoping for a gross along the lines of the first film. The marketing has been good and the film is the first in the franchise to be released in 3-D, which will help with its box office. The books have a loyal following so that should help attendance, although reviews have been mixed, as the film has a 47% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing, but families do not care about reviews for this type of film. Opening in 3,555 theatres, I’m predicting that The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will gross $60 million this weekend and finish in 1st place.
Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp team up in the thriller The Tourist. The story follows Depp on vacation in Europe when he meets up with Jolie. He believes he might have found true love, but Jolie’s character is a lot more than she appears to be, which puts Depp’s life in danger. The film is from director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck who directed the acclaimed film The Lives of Others. Jolie and Depp are box office stars, and can definitely open a film. Here’s a look at each of their most recent efforts that were targeted to adults:
2010 – Salt – $36 million opening weekend.
2009 – Public Enemies – $25.2 million opening weekend.
Average Opening Weekend – $30.6 million
I do think The Tourist will have a decent opening weekend, but it is because of its star power, not because of the reviews. The Tourist is receiving terrible reviews, as Rotten Tomatoes has the film is listed at 14% positive, and a criticism the film is receiving is that there is no chemistry between the two leads. Still, reviews will not matter on the opening weekend, as audiences want to see the leads and the gorgeous locations in the film. It’s escapist entertainment, and I’m predicting that The Tourist will gross $27 million from 2,756 theatres and finish in 2nd place.
With The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader and The Tourist entering the top five this weekend, I’m predicting that Burlesque and Unstoppable will be leaving the top five. Here’s how I see rest of the films finishing:
Tangled has been holding up well throughout the week, as it has been back and forth with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One for the number one spot on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The debut of The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will definitely cut into Tangled’s audience but it should post a decent hold. I’m predicting that Tangled will drop 53% giving it a gross of $10.1 million and finish in 3rd place.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One had a disastrous third weekend last weekend, as it posted lows for the franchise for third week gross and third week percentage drop. This weekend doesn’t look to be any easier with The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader opening, which will definitely take away more of its audience. Here’s a look at how the other films in the Harry Potter franchise did on their fourth weekend:
Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $14.7 million / Down 37.7%
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $10 million / Down 68.6%
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $11.2 million / Down 37.6%
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $10.2 million / Down 48.4%
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $9.5 million / Down 46.3% Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $8.9 million / Down 50.1%
Average Fourth Weekend Gross – $10.75 million
Average Fourth Weekend Percentage Drop – 43.1%
I think the fourth weekend percentage drop will be on the higher end again as I’m predicting a 59% drop, which would give Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One a gross of $6.9 million and a 4th place finish.
Love and Other Drugs with Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway might be the surprise of the weekend as I’m predicting that it will end up in 5th place from a drop of 48%, giving Love and Other Drugs a gross of $3 million.
The Cher and Christina Aguilera musical Burlesque will be on the outside looking in this weekend when it comes to the top five films, as I just don’t think people have any interest in seeing it. Burlesque is going to drop 55% giving it a gross of $2.7 million, giving it a 6th place finish.
Unstoppable will continue to be a solid performer, even though it has some competition in The Tourist this weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 55% giving Unstoppable a gross of $2.6 million and a 7th place finish.
Due Date continues to stick around the top ten, and this weekend I’m predicting a drop of 44%, giving Due Date a gross of $2.2 million and an 8th finish.
Megamind is now on its last legs with The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader taking away any 3-D screens that Megamind might have had left. I’m predicting a drop of 57% giving Megamind a gross of $2.1 million and a 9th place finish.
Faster will round out the top ten as I’m predicting a drop of 55% giving Faster a gross of $1.7 million and a 10th place finish.
In limited release:
Hemingway’s Garden of Eden – This film is based on one of Hemingway’s most debated novels. It follows a couple on an extended honeymoon with the wife pushing the limits of her husband’s devotion. The film is being released in 14 theatres and has a 10% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
The Tempest – Julie Taymor directs an all-star cast in this adaptation of Shakespeare’s last play. The film has an all-star cast led by Helen Mirren in the title role. The film is being released in 5 theatres and has a 28% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
The Fighter – This film stars Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale and is a based on the true life story of Micky “Irish” Ward, a boxer most famous for his fights against Arturo Gotti. The film chronicles Ward’s rise in professional boxing in the 1980’s. The film is being released in 4 theatres and has an 84% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
And Everything Is Going Fine – Steven Soderbergh directs this documentary about the famed monologue master Spalding Gray. The film is being released in 1 theatre and has an 88% positive rating as of this writing.
Shoah – The 25th anniversary of the famous documentary about the lives of Jewish survivors and Nazi soldiers during the Holocaust gets released. The film’s full running time is 9.5 hours and it talks about its subject without using a single frame of archived material. The film is being released in 1 theatre and has a 100% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – $60 million
The Tourist – $27 million
Tangled – $10.1 million
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $6.9 million
Love and Other Drugs – $3 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!