Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of December 3rd, 2010

Only one new film goes into major release this weekend (and I truthfully wouldn’t even call it major release as The Warrior’s Way is being released in 1,622 theatres), so don’t expect to see a lot of change at the box office this weekend. There is usually quite the drop-off on films following the Thanksgiving long weekend, so we’ll see if that trend continues this weekend. Quite a few films that have hopes come Oscar time are out in limited release this weekend, so that may appeal to some moviegoers. Here is how I see the weekend breaking down:


The Warrior’s Way is the only new release of the weekend and it is about a swordsman who betrays his clan and heads to a small western town to try and hide. As we all know in movies, you can never outrun your past, and his past catches up with him in this town, and all hell break’s loose. The film stars Korean star Jang Dong Gun and he is surrounded by a strong supporting cast in Kate Bosworth, Geoffrey Rush and Danny Huston. Unfortunately, I don’t think that there is any interest in the film. It’s not been heavily marketed, it’s only being released in 1,622 theatres, the actors are not draws at the box office and the film was not screened for critics. I’m predicting that this film will be in and out of theatres very quickly, so my prediction for The Warrior’s Way is that it will finish in 8th place and gross $3.8 million.

No new films will be entering the top five this weekend, so here’s how I see rest of the top five unfolding:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One had a tight battle last weekend against Tangled and I would expect another close battle again this weekend. Coming up with my prediction, I took a look at how the other films in the Harry Potter franchise did on their third weekend. Here’s the list:

Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $23.6 million / Down 58.9%
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $32.1 million / Down 23.9%
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $18 million / Down 48.4%
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $19.8 million / Down 63.7%
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $17.7 million / Down 45.5%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $17.9 million / Down 39.2%

Average Third Weekend Gross – $21.5 million
Average Third Weekend Percentage Drop – 46.6%

I think the third weekend percentage drop will be on the higher end as it is the post-Thanksgiving weekend, so I’m predicting a drop of 54%, which would give Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One a gross of $22.5 million and a 1st place finish.

Tangled had a strong debut for Walt Disney Pictures and definitely put up a fight against Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One. Entering its second weekend, it definitely has a chance to become the #1 film, considering how close it was to 1st place last weekend, but it is going to lose a large part of its family audience this weekend, just because of the post-Thanksgiving letdown. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One has been beating it at the box office throughout the week, and I really do think that 2nd place is where Tangled is going to finish for the second weekend in a row. Dropping 54% from last weekend, I’m predicting that Tangled will gross $22.4 million and finish in second place.

Unstoppable has continued to be a steady performer, and I think it will surprise some people this weekend but how well it will hold. I’m predicting that Unstoppable will fall 38% from last weekend, giving it a gross of $7 million and a 3rd place finish.

Megamind will now start showing signs of fatigue because of how long it has been in theatres, and that it is not on people’s radar as much as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One or Tangled is. For that reason, I’m predicting that Megamind will drop 51% giving it a gross of $6.1 million and finish in 4th place.

Love and Other Drugs with Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway might be a little bit of a surprise to some this weekend, as I think it might just have a decent hold. I’m predicting a drop of 45% giving it a gross of $5.3 million, giving it a 5th place finish.

The Cher and Christina Aguilera musical Burlesque had a decent debut last weekend, but I think the film’s fan base has seen it, and with word-of-mouth being negative on the film, and I can’t see it attracting new audiences. It has consistently finished in 3rd place throughout the week, but I just can’t see that happening this weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 57% giving Burlesque a gross of $5.1 million and a 6th place finish.

Due Date should have a drop that is quite a bit higher than last weekend. I’m predicting that Due Date will drop 43% giving it a gross of $4 million and a 7th place finish.

The action film Faster with Dwayne Johnson was a bomb at the box office last weekend, and I don’t think much interest will be shown in the film this weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 57% giving Faster a gross of $3.7 million and a 9th place finish.

127 Hours will make its debut in the top ten this weekend as I’m predicting the James Franco//Danny Boyle real-life drama will finish with $3.2 million giving it a 10th place finish.

In limited release:

I Love You, Phillip Morris – This film stars Jim Carrey and Ewan McGregor and is about the true life story of a con man who escapes from Texas prison’s on four occasions. The film is being released in 6 theatres and has a 77% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Black Swan – This film is by acclaimed director Darren Aronofsky and stars Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis. It follows a ballet dancer who is battling with another dancer for the lead in Swan Lake. Don’t be fooled by my plot synopsis, because the film gets dark as the one dancer begins to lose control, which may cost her the role of a lifetime. The film is being released in 18 theatres and has an 84% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Dead Awake – This film stars Nick Stahl, Rose McGowan and Amy Smart about a group of people that find a secret between the living and the dead. The film is being released in 55 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

The Polar Express (Re-Release) – This film is a re-release of the animated Christmas story about a boy who loses faith in Santa Claus and goes on a trip to the North Pole to have his faith restored. The film is being released in 15 theatres.

Night Catches Us – This film is about a former Black Panther who returns to his hometown trying to adjust to life after being away for many years. The film is being released in 4 theaters and has an 87% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

All Good Things – This film stars Ryan Gosling and Kirsten Dunst and is based on the true life story of Robert Durst, who was thought to have killed his wife back in the 1980’s. The film is being released in 2 theatres and has a 38% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Bhutto – This film is a documentary about the life of Benazir Bhutto, the first woman to lead a Muslim nation. The film is being released in 2 theatres and has a 100% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

Rare Exports: A Christmas Tale – This film is about a dig in Finland that uncovers the real Santa Claus, except this Santa Claus is naughty, as local children start to disappear. The film is being released in 1 theatre and has a 91% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $22.5 million
Tangled – $22.4 million
Unstoppable – $7 million
Megamind – $6.1 million
Love and Other Drugs – $5.3 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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