To no one’s surprise, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One was the #1 film this weekend at the box office, but the question was always going to be how much would it gross? Well, the film can now say it holds the records of highest opening weekend in the franchise and the 6th highest opening weekend of all time with $125.1 million. As for the rest of the box office, it pretty much was a non-factor. My predictions were decent this weekend as I predicted all five films in the top five, but only two in order. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One had an absolutely monstrous opening weekend finishing in 1st place with a gross of $125.1 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $130 million). The per theatre average for the film was $30,332, which was easily the highest per theatre average of any film in release. The opening weekend was a franchise best, beating the previous franchise high of $102.6 million grossed by Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. See below for how the films stack up on their opening weekends:
1) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One – $125.1 million opening weekend
2) Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban – $102.6 million opening weekend
3) Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix – $93.6 million opening weekend
4) Harry Potter and the Philosopher’s Stone – $90.2 million opening weekend
5) Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – $88.3 million opening weekend
6) Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince – $77.8 million opening weekend
7) Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – $77.1 million opening weekend
The comparison might not be fair because some of the films opened earlier in the week and would have done much higher opening weekend business had they debuted on a Friday. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One can also claim that it has the 6th highest opening weekend of all time. See below:
1) The Dark Knight – $158.4 million opening weekend
2) Spider-Man 3 – $151.1 million opening weekend
3) The Twilight Saga: New Moon – $142.8 million opening weekend
4) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest – $135.6 million opening weekend
5) Iron Man 2 – $128.1 million opening weekend
6) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One – $125.1 million opening weekend
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One is also doing gangbusters overseas as the foreign gross stands at $205 million, bringing its global total to an astonishing $330.1 million. This franchise is definitely a moneymaker for Warner Bros. and from a financial standpoint, the decision to split the last book into two films is brilliant, because the sequel will definitely have a higher opening weekend gross than this film (I’m saying this now so I can quote myself next summer). The Harry Potter franchise will be impossible to replace, because there is not one film series that has been consistently excellent in terms of critical reception and box office gross. It’s definitely a once in a lifetime thing. We’ll see how well it holds next weekend when four films come out, but it should be fine as the films are not really targeting the Harry Potter audience with the exception of Disney’s Tangled.
After a two week reign a top the box office, Megamind is the #2 film this weekend with a gross of $16.1 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $14 million). Megamind had a per theatre average of $4,280 and the film was down 44.5% from last weekend, which is quite a good hold considering that Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 was going after the same audience. The percentage drop for Megamind was quite a bit higher than the average of the films that I used to make my predictions, but those films didn’t have to deal with such an established franchise as Harry Potter opening so soon into its run. See below:
2010 – How to Train Your Dragon – 14.3% third weekend drop
2009 – Monsters vs. Aliens – 33.1% third weekend drop
2008 – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – 55.3% third weekend drop
2008 – Kung-Fu Panda – 34.7% third weekend drop
2007 – Bee Movie – 45.2% third weekend drop
2006 – Over The Hedge – 23.7% third weekend drop
2005 – Madagascar – 38.9% third weekend drop
2004 – Shark Tale – 29.8% third weekend drop
Average Third Weekend Drop – 34.375%
After three weeks, Megamind has grossed $109.4 million and will soon make back its budget of $130 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is the thriller Unstoppable with a gross of $13.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $11.7 million). Unstoppable had a per theatre average of $4,082 and was down 42.3% from its opening weekend. The hold was on par for the films I used on Friday to make my prediction (The average second weekend drop of the four films listed is 41.825%). See below:
2009 – The Taking of Pelham 123 – 48.5% second weekend drop
2006 – Déjà Vu – 46.8% second weekend drop
2004 – Man of Fire – 34% second weekend drop
1995 – Crimson Tide – 38% second weekend drop
Adults seemed to like this film as an alternative to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One, so it hopes to continue that momentum in the coming weeks. After ten days, Unstoppable has grossed $41.9 million, but it has a ways to go to reach its budget of $100 million (it seems unlikely that it will become a profitable film).
Dropping from 3rd place to 4th place is the comedy Due Date with a gross of $9.1 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $6.9 million). Due Date had a per theatre average of $2,834 and was down 40.7% from last weekend. Due Date’s percentage drop is decent so the film was good counter-programming against Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One. It will be interesting to see how Due Date holds next weekend when four new films come out, and not one of them is a true comedy. Due Date became a profitable film this past week as it has taken in $72.6 million after three weeks from a budget of $59 million, which makes Warner Bros. very happy.
Debuting in 5th place is the Russell Crowe / Elizabeth Banks / Liam Neeson thriller The Next Three Days with a gross of $6.75 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $12 million). The Next Three Days had an absolutely terrible per theatre average of $2,564 and is going to be out of theatres very soon. I’ve said before that a target a film that is being released should have on its opening weekend should be a per theatre average of at least $5,000, so considering The Next Three Days had a per theatre average that was almost half of that, it should tell you something about how disappointing this film is from a financial standpoint. The film failed as counter-programming to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One and was way below the opening weekend grosses of the films that I used for my prediction. See below:
2009 – State of Play – $14 million opening weekend
2008 – Body of Lies – $12.8 million opening weekend
2007 – 3:10 to Yuma – $14 million opening weekend
2005 – Cinderella Man – $18 million opening weekend
2005 – Crash – $9.1 million opening weekend
2001 – A Beautiful Mind – $16.5 million first weekend in wide release
The Next Three Days has not listed its budget, but there is no way this film makes a profit for Lions Gate. I like Russell Crowe films and I like films by writer/director Paul Haggis, but from a business point of view, The Next Three Days is a step back for both of them.
Dropping from 5th place to 6th place is the dramedy Morning Glory with a gross of $5.2 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $5.7 million). Morning Glory had a per theatre average of 2,057 and was down 43.1% from its opening weekend. The hold is decent for the Rachel McAdams, Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton film but its going to get lost in the shuffle very soon as there are four major releases next weekend (I think I’ve mentioned that quite often), and many more films are scheduled to be released before the end of the year, so the long term prospects for Morning Glory are not strong. After ten days, Morning Glory has grossed $19.8 million, and it will be a dud for Paramount as the film cost $40 million to make.
Dropping from 4th place to 7th place is the sci-fi flick Skyline with a gross of $3.4 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $4.3 million). Skyline had a per theatre average of $1,190, which is terrible for a film in its second weekend, and was down a whopping 70.7% from its opening weekend (largest drop of any film in the top ten), so there is no way this film will be in theatres at Christmas time. As I said last weekend, Skyline’s budget is only $10 million and after ten days it has grossed $17.6 million, so it has made some money, which is what the suits care about.
Dropping from 7th place to 8th place is Red with a gross of $2.46 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $2.69 million). Red had a per theatre average of $1,213 and was down 50.4% from last weekend. Red has grossed $83.5 million in six weeks from a budget of $58 million.
Dropping from 6th place to 9th place is For Colored Girls with a gross of $2.40 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $2.66 million). For Colored Girls had a per theatre average of $1,974 and was down 63.2% from last weekend. The weak performance of For Colored Girls is no shock to anyone who follows Tyler Perry films at the box office as his films suffer large drops after his fan base goes out to see the film on its opening weekend. For Colored Girls has grossed $34.5 million in three weeks from a budget of only $21 million, so it is a profitable film for Lions Gate and Tyler Perry.
Moving up from 15th place to 10th place is the Naomi Watts / Sean Penn spy thriller Fair Game with a gross of $1.4 million (I did not make a prediction for this film). It had a per theatre average of $3,808 and its gross was up 44% from last weekend. After three weeks of being in limited release, it has grossed $3.7 million and it hopes to make back its budget of $22 million when it eventually goes wide.
In limited release:
Made in Dagenham – This film is based on the true story of a group of women in 1960’s England who helped get women equality at the work place. It stars Sally Hawkins, Bob Hoskins and Rosamund Pike. The film grossed $41,100 from 3 theatres for a per theatre average of $13,700.
White Material – This film stars Isabelle Huppert and is about a French women running a coffee plantation in Africa. Soon, the civil unrest in the country finds them and they are made targets and told to leave the country or else. White Material grossed $36,300 from 3 theatres for a per theatre average of $12,100.
William S. Burroughs: A Man Within – This film grossed $7,050 from one theatre.
Today’s Special – This film grossed $91,000 from 55 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $1,655.
127 Hours continues to perform well in limited release. The James Franco real life drama once again added more theatres this weekend and once again saw its box office numbers go up. It grossed $915,000 which is up 108.6% from last weekend and it had a per theatre average of $8,472. In three weeks of release it has grossed $1.9 million.
Heartless did not report its gross as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $130 million
Megamind – $14 million
The Next Three Days – $12 million
Unstoppable – $11.7 million
Due Date – $6.9 million
And here are the actual numbers:
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – $125.1 million
Megamind – $16.1 million
Unstoppable – $13.1 million
Due Date – $9.1 million
The Next Three Days – $6.7 million
My predictions were off by $15.9 million.
Next weekend, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One looks to be the #1 film for a second weekend in a row against the Disney animated film Tangled, the Dwayne Johnson revenge film Faster, the Christina Aguilera / Cher musical Burlesque and the dramedy Love and Other Drugs with Jake Gyllenhaal and Anne Hathaway. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
