It was a close battle for box office supremacy this weekend, but Megamind was able to hold off all three new comers to retain its title as domestic box office champion. Unstoppable had a strong opening weekend while Skyline and Morning Glory opened around where most people thought they would. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Staying in 1st place for the second weekend in a row is the animated film Megamind with a gross of $30 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $26.2 million). Megamind had a per theatre average of $7,611 which was the highest of any film in the top ten for the second weekend in a row, and the film was down 34.7% from its debut weekend. The hold was right around the average of 34.3% of the other DreamWorks films that I used when I made my prediction. See below:
2010 – Megamind – 34.7% second weekend drop
2010 – How to Train Your Dragon – 33.7% second weekend drop
2009 – Monsters vs. Aliens – 45% second weekend drop
2008 – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – 44.5% second weekend drop
2008 – Kung-Fu Panda – 44.2% second weekend drop
2007 – Bee Movie – 32.8% second weekend drop
2006 – Over The Hedge – 29.6% second weekend drop
2005 – Madagascar – 40.5% second weekend drop
2004 – Shark Tale – 34.2% second weekend drop
This is a great sign that Megamind will hold up throughout the holidays, although it is going to lose a big share of its audience in the next two weeks when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 and Tangled come out. Still it is a strong debut, and it will definitely make back its budget which is listed at $130 million. After 10 days, Megamind has grossed $89.7 million.
Debuting in 2nd place is the thriller Unstoppable with a gross of $23.5 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $31 million). Unstoppable had a per theatre average of $7,238. The Denzel Washington, Chris Pine and Tony Scott collaboration opened right around the average of the films I used to make my prediction (The average of the four films was $21.2 million). See below:
2010 – Unstoppable – Opening Weekend – $23.5 million
2009 – The Taking of Pelham 123 – Opening Weekend – $23.3 million
2006 – Déjà Vu – Opening Weekend – $20.5 million
2004 – Man of Fire – Opening Weekend – $22.7 million
1995 – Crimson Tide – Opening Weekend – $18.6 million
The question now will be if the film can become profitable as the budget is listed at $100 million, and Unstoppable will have its work cut out for it if it hopes to reach that mark. We’ll see how it holds next weekend, as the majority of audiences will want to see Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One.
Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is the comedy Due Date with a gross of $15.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $21.8 million). Due Date had a per theatre average of $4,615, which is not great for a film only 10 days old, and was down 52.5% from its opening weekend, which is also not a good sign. Due Date overcame mixed reviews to do very well at the box office on its opening weekend, but I don’t think word-of-mouth is all that strong, which explains the large drop this weekend. The number is a little disappointing as Due Date is the only true comedy in major release that audiences want to see right now. Due Date will definitely make a profit as the budget for the film is listed at $65 million and after 10 days the film has grossed $59 million. At the end of the day, as long as money is made, the suits are happy.
Debuting in 4th place is the sci-fi flick Skyline with a gross of $11.6 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $18 million). Skyline had a per theatre average of $4,055, which is not a good sign. The film suffered because reviews were not strong, and the cast was a no-name bunch which did not benefit the film (this strategy can work, and I can use Cloverfield as an example). I did think the marketing team did a good job to make people aware of the film, but audiences were just not into it. A positive for Skyline is that the budget was only $10 million, so it has already made a profit for Universal. I would expect this film to out of theatres soon to make way for the higher profile winter releases and be on DVD shelves soon.
Debuting in 5th place is the dramedy Morning Glory with a gross of $9.6 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $12 million). Morning Glory had a per theatre average of 3,822. The Rachel McAdams, Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton film just did not connect with audiences despite decent reviews and a strong cast. In fact Morning Glory had a gross lower than any of the four Rachel McAdams films I used to make my prediction with. See below:
2009 – The Time Traveler’s Wife – $18.6 million opening weekend
2005 – The Family Stone – $12.5 million opening weekend
2005 – Red Eye – $16.1 million opening weekend
2004 – The Notebook – $13.4 million opening weekend
McAdams is an excellent actress, but does not have the clout to open a film yet. She will, but this was not it. Morning Glory will definitely be challenged to make back its budget as it cost $40 million to make and since its Wednesday opening, Morning Glory has only grossed $12.2 million, which means it is going to be like Skyline and taken out of theatres soon to make way for the winter releases and put on DVD shelves.
Dropping from 3rd place to 6th place is For Colored Girls with a gross of $6.75 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $8.1 million). For Colored Girls had a per theatre average of $3,173 and was down 65.4% from its opening weekend (The percentage drop was the highest of any film in the top ten). The weak second weekend performance of For Colored Girls is not unexpected, as Tyler Perry films have very strong opening weekends, as his fans come out to support his films, but then large drops follow. In fact For Colored Girls had the highest second weekend drop of any of the Tyler Perry films that I used to make my prediction. See below:
2010 – For Colored Girls – 65.4% second weekend drop
2010 – Why Did I Get Married Too? – 62.4% second weekend drop
2009 – I Can Do Bad All by Myself – 57.9% second weekend drop
2009 – Madea Goes to Jail – 60.6% second weekend drop
2008 – The Family That Preys – 58.2% second weekend drop
2008 – Meet the Browns – 62.7% second weekend drop
2007 – Why Did I Get Married? – 42.9% second weekend drop
2007 – Daddy’s Little Girls – 57% second weekend drop
2006 – Madea’s Family Reunion – 57.9% second weekend drop
Interest in the film by the mass audience does not exist as it received mostly negative reviews, and at this time of year, audiences seem to care more about reviews as they want to think they are seeing a possibly Oscar contender. Still, the film is profitable as after two weeks For Colored Girls has grossed $30.9 million from a budget of only $21 million, so it continues Tyler Perry’s run of profitable films, even if it won’t be in theatres for very long.
Dropping from 4th place to 7th place is Red with a gross of $5.1 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $5.9 million). Red had a per theatre average of $1,777 and was down 40.9% from last weekend, which is the largest drop it has suffered in its five weeks of release. Like I said last weekend, Red has definitely been a surprise of the fall movie season as it has grossed $79.8 million which is a nice little profit for Summit Entertainment, as the budget for Red is listed at $58 million.
Dropping from 6th place to 8th place is Paranormal Activity 2 with a gross of $3 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $3.15 million). Paranormal Activity 2 had a per theatre average of $1,269 and was down 57% from last weekend. The total gross for Paranormal Activity 2 now stands at $82 million after four weekends of release and like I said last weekend, Paramount has to be thrilled with this franchise, as this film cost a miniscule $3 million to make.
Dropping from 5th place to 9th place is Saw 3-D with a gross of $2.75 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $3 million). Saw 3-D had a per theatre average of $1,392 and was down 64.4% from last weekend. The drop is large, but not unexpected as horror films are not what audiences want to see in November and December. They want to see big budget films or possible Oscar contenders. Saw 3-D is a profitable film for Lions Gate as the budget for it is listed at $20 million and after three weekends, Saw 3-D has grossed $43.4 million.
Dropping from 7th place to 10th place is Jackass 3-D with a gross of $2.3 million (I predicted an 11th place finish and a gross of $2.69 million). Jackass 3-D had a per theatre average of $1,431 and was down 53.5% from last weekend. Jackass 3-D has grossed $114.7 million in five weeks, and has made a fair bit of money for Paramount (sound familiar) as the budget for Jackass 3-D is listed at $20 million. It is also the highest grossing film of the fall season, and I doubt that most people would have thought that going into September.
In limited release:
Tiny Furniture opened in 1 theatre and grossed $22,450, which is also the highest per theatre average of any film in release.
127 Hours also had a great weekend. The James Franco real life drama added more theatres this weekend and actually saw its box office numbers go up. It grossed $453,000 which is up 71% from its debut last weekend and it had a very strong per theatre average of $20,591. Expect 127 Hours to keep building momentum in the coming weeks as this film will be talked about come Oscar time.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
Unstoppable – $31 million
Megamind – $26.2 million
Due Date – $21.8 million
Skyline – $18 million
Morning Glory – $12 million
And here are the actual numbers:
Megamind – $30 million
Unstoppable – $23.5 million
Due Date – $15.5 million
Skyline – $11.6 million
Morning Glory – $9.6 million
My predictions were off by $26.4 million.
Next weekend, Megamind looks to be the #1 film for a third weekend in a row, but that won’t happen as Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part One comes out, and so does the Russell Crowe thriller The Next Three Days. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
