Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of November 5th, 2010

Three new films going after wildly different audiences do battle at the box office this weekend. One of them will end the reign of Saw 3-D, but will it be the animated film Megamind, the drama For Colored Girls or the comedy Due Date? All three should make more than the $22.5 million Saw 3-D made on its opening weekend, but what one will come out on top? Here is how I see the weekend breaking down:

Megamind gets the highest release count of the week, and it will most likely be the box office champion because it is also the only new release that is in 3-D, which means higher ticket prices, which means more money. The premise of the film is about a superhero and a super-villain, who fight each other (naturally), until an event happens that makes the super-villain become a superhero? Yes, the question mark is for a confused effect. The voice talent is A-List with Will Ferrell, Tina Fey, Jonah Hill and Brad Pitt, and the trailers look fun. Dreamworks Animation usually has pretty solid opening weekends. Here’s a look at there non-Shrek films and how they performed on their opening weekend:

2010 – How to Train Your Dragon – $43.7 million opening weekend
2009 – Monsters vs. Aliens – $59.3 million opening weekend
2008 – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $63.1 million opening weekend
2008 – Kung-Fu Panda – $60.2 million opening weekend
2007 – Bee Movie – $38 million opening weekend
2006 – Over The Hedge – $38.4 million opening weekend
2005 – Madagascar – $47.2 million opening weekend
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $49.68 million

Megamind reminds me of another super-villain animated film that was released earlier this year in Despicable Me and that film had an opening weekend of $56.3 million. Reviews have been decent with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 66% positive, and with the highest theatre count of any of the new films, Megamind should have a very good weekend. Opening in 3,944 theatres, I’m predicting that Megamind will gross $52 million and finish in 1st place.

Robert Downey Jr. and Zach Galifianakis star in the comedy Due Date which is directed by Todd Phillips, who is best known for directing Old School and The Hangover. The film follows Downey Jr.’s character trying to get back home in time to witness the birth of his child. He is unable to fly and ends up travelling by car with Galifianakis’s character to make it on time. Unfortunately, Galifianakis’s character is not the sharpest tool in the shed and a series of misadventures occur that delay Downey Jr. from making it in time. I do think the trailers are funny, and the film will definitely be a nice change of pace for adults as we don’t have a fictional comedy in the top ten right now, so audiences should power the film to a strong debut. In a way, the film reminds me of another film released earlier this year in Get Him to the Greek which was also about two men trying to get to an important event on time. Get Him to the Greek debuted with $17.5 million, but I think the star power of Due Date will give it a better opening weekend. Critics are divided about Due Date as Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 41% but I think audiences will still want to see it because of the strong marketing campaign. Opening in 3,355 theatres, I’m predicting that Due Date will gross $35 million and finish in 2nd place.

Tyler Perry does something that is rare for him and that is work with someone else’s material as he wrote, produced and directed the film For Colored Girls. The film is based on the award winning play For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide When the Rainbow is Enuf and has an excellent cast in Kimberly Elise, Janet Jackson, Loretta Devine, Thandie Newton, Anika Noni Rose, Kerry Washington, Phylicia Rashad and Whoopi Goldberg. The film chronicles what it is like to be a black woman in society by focusing on eight different women. The film is geared towards females, and they should support it in droves. Tyler Perry is a force to be reckoned with at the box office, just look at his opening weekend track record at the box office:

2010 – Why Did I Get Married Too? – $29.2 million opening weekend
2009 – I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $23.4 million opening weekend
2009 – Madea Goes To Jail – $30 million opening weekend
2008 – The Family That Preys – $11.2 million opening weekend
2008 – Meet The Browns – $21.3 million opening weekend
2007 – Why Did I Get Married? – $20 million opening weekend
2007 – Daddy’s Little Girls – $17.3 million opening weekend
2006 – Madea’s Family Reunion – $41 million opening weekend

Average Opening Weekend – $24.175 million

What’s amazing about this, is that Tyler Perry has never had an opening weekend theatre count above 2,255 and he is still consistently able to have grosses hover around at least $20 million. Giving the award-winning material the film is based on, audiences will come, as well as this is the first female driven film in release since Eat Pray Love. Critics have not been kind to For Colored Girls as the film is only listed at 33% positive, but audiences never listen to critics when it comes to Perry’s films. Opening in 2,127 theatres, I’m predicting that For Colored Girls will finish in 3rd place with a gross of $31 million.

With Megamind, For Colored Girls and Due Date making the top five, I’m predicting that Red, Jackass 3-D and Hereafter will be knocked out of the top five. Here’s how I see rest of the top five unfolding:

Red has been holding up quite well and is becoming quite the modest little hit. I’m predicting a drop of 35% giving Red a gross of $6.95 million and a 4th place finish.

Saw 3-D should have an interesting weekend, as the series tends to suffer large drops on its second weekend. See below:
Saw – 39.3% second weekend drop
Saw II – 46.9% second weekend drop
Saw III – 55.9% second weekend drop
Saw IV – 67.4% second weekend drop
Saw V – 67.6% second weekend drop
Saw VI – 62.7% second weekend drop

Average Second Weekend Drop – 56.3%

The average doesn’t do the franchise justice as the previous three installments have had big drop-offs, and with Halloween done, and people wanting to see Megamind in 3-D over Saw 3-D, I’m predicting a drop of 70% giving Saw 3-D a gross of $6.75 million and a 5th place finish.

Paranormal Activity 2 had a large drop last weekend, and I think it will have another large drop this weekend. With Halloween having passed, people don’t want to be scared anymore. I’m predicting a drop of 61% giving Paranormal Activity 2 a gross of $6.4 million and a 6th place finish.

Hereafter is a film that interest me as I want to see how well it holds up this weekend. Any awards hope for the film is done after the lukewarm reviews and lower than expected grosses in its limited run, but I think it could post a steady hold this weekend. I’m predicting a 42% drop giving Hereafter a gross of $3.7 million and a 7th place finish.

Secretariat posted a great hold last weekend, and it is hoping to do the same again this weekend, although females will probably want to see For Colored Girls more than this film. I’m predicting a drop of 34% giving Secretariat a gross of $3.3 million and a 8th place finish.

Jackass 3-D will lose some 3-D screens to Megamind and the comedy audience to Due Date so I’m predicting a drop of 62% giving Jackass 3-D a gross of $3.2 million and an 9th place finish.

The Social Network should round out the top ten with a drop of 39%, giving it a gross of $2.7 million.

Opening in limited release, we have the following films:

127 Hours – This film stars James Franco and is directed by Danny Boyle and is about the true story of a man who is trapped by a boulder in a canyon and how he makes it through the next 127 hours. The film has received a tremendous amount of buzz on the festival circuit, so expect word of mouth to build quickly on this film. 127 Hours is being released in 4 theatres and has a 94% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Fair Game – This film stars Naomi Watts and Sean Penn and is directed by Doug Liman. The story follows a CIA agent whose cover is blown because her husband wrote an op-ed piece in a newspaper about the Bush administration’s quest to find Weapons of Mass Destruction that was not flattering to the government. The question is did the government blow the agents cover to get back at her husband? The film is based on a true story and is being released in 46 theatres and has a 76% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer – This is a documentary about the former New York governor’s sex scandal. It is being released in 3 theatres and has a 95% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Red Hill – This film follows a young police officer during his first day on the job in a small town dealing with a prison break and a con who wants to exact some revenge on the townsfolk. The film is being released in 5 theatres and has a 73% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

Guy and Madeline on a Bench – This film is about lovers who are separated that slowly meet back up again thanks to the power of music. The best way to describe the film is that it is a cross between an MGM musical and a faux documentary (that makes no sense I know). This film is being released in 1 theatre and has a 75% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.

So to recap, here are my predictions:

Megamind – $52 million
Due Date – $35 million
For Colored Girls – $31 million
Red – $6.95 million
Saw 3-D – $6.75 million

Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!

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