Two new films open this weekend with the hopes of dethroning The Social Network from the top of the box office. There is the comedy sequel Jackass 3-D and the action-comedy Red starring Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Mary-Louise Parker, Helen Mirren and John Malkovich. Both have a legitimate shot at topping the box office, but only one of them will succeed. Here is how I see the weekend breaking down:
Jackass 3-D launches in 3,081 theatres this weekend with the hope of grossing out audiences with their outrageous stunts. The one stunt that I hear is most disgusting is Steve-O in a port-a-potty. The fact that the scene was shot in 3-D can only add to the sheer filthiness of the scene. The Jackass franchise is one you either love or hate, there’s no middle ground, and the people who make the films don’t really care which side of the fence you’re on. They do their thing, and if you find it funny – great. If you don’t, they could care less. The Jackass franchise has been very good to Paramount as they are relativity cheap to make (Jackass: The Movie had a budget of $5 million, and Jackass: Number Two had a budget of $11.5 million) and were both very profitable (Jackass: The Movie grossed $64.2 million, and Jackass: Number Two grossed $72.7 million). The opening weekends for the franchise are pretty solid as well. See below:
2002 – Jackass: The Movie – $22.7 million opening weekend
2006 – Jackass: Number Two – $29 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $25.85 million
Fans of the franchise don’t really care what the critics have to say, but I’ll include the stat anyways. Rotten Tomatoes lists the film at 43% positive, which is actually a little low for the franchise. The fact that the film is in 3-D should help the opening weekend, which actually goes against the trend of 3-D films disappointing on their opening weekend. I’m predicting a gross of $32 million and a 1st place finish.
Red is the other new release this weekend and this film has a great cast in Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Mary-Louise Parker, Helen Mirren and John Malkovich. The film is based on the D.C. Comics graphic novels and follows a group of retired, yet extremely dangerous C.I.A. operatives. They become targets by the C.I.A. and are framed for an assassination and have to break into the C.I.A. to clear their name. The trailers look fun, and the cast is pretty strong. The film reminds me of three other 2010 releases, and I’ve decided to use those films to make my prediction. They are:
The Losers – $9.4 million opening weekend
The A-Team – $25.6 million opening weekend
The Expendables – $34.8 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $23.2 million
Unfortunately, I think the average above is way too high for what Red will actually gross this weekend. Critics will play a role in whether adults go out to see this film, and even though the film has a 71% positive rating from Rotten Tomatoes, I still see it struggling at the box office this weekend. Opening in over 3,255 theatres, I’m predicting that Red will gross $17 million and finish in 2nd place.
With Jackass 3-D and Red making the top five, I’m predicting that Legend of the Guardians: the Owls of Ga’Hoole and My Soul to Take will be knocked out of the top five. Here’s how I see rest of the top five unfolding:
The Social Network will lose its title as box office champion this weekend, but it should post a decent hold. I’m predicting a drop of 37%, giving it a gross of $9.7 million and a 3rd place finish.
Life as We Know It had a surprising debut last weekend, in that it opened a lot stronger than I expected it too. It was the #2 film at the box office on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, barely beating Secretariat each day. It should be able to beat Secretariat again this weekend as I’m predicting a drop of 44% giving Life As We Know It a gross of $8.1 million and a 4th place finish.
Secretariat was definitely a big disappointment last weekend, especially because I thought the film had a strong marketing campaign. I don’t think audiences are going to show much love to the film on its second weekend, as I’m predicting a drop of 48% giving Secretariat a gross of $6.5 million and a 5th place finish.
The Town has been a consistent performer at the box office this fall, and I think the crime-drama will have another strong weekend. I’m predicting that The Town will drop 35% this weekend giving it a gross of $4.16 million and 6th place finish.
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole should have another strong hold this weekend because it really is the only film geared towards kids. It will lose some 3-D screens to Jackass 3-D, but I don’t think the impact will be that major. I’m predicting a drop of 39% giving Legend of the Guardians: the Owls of Ga’Hoole a gross of $4.14 million and a 7th place finish.
Easy A will surprise people once again and have another solid hold at the box office. I’m predicting a drop of 35% for Easy A giving it a gross of $2.7 million an 8th place finish.
My Soul to Take managed to make the top five last weekend, but this weekend it is going to suffer the biggest percentage drop in the top ten for two reasons: 1) It’s a horror film, which traditionally have big second weekend drops 2) The target audience of teenagers will be going to see Jackass 3-D this weekend. I’m predicting that My Soul to Take will drop 61% giving it a gross of $2.6 million and give it a 9th place finish.
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps has not been holding up that well the past couple of weekends, and I expect the trend to continue this weekend. I’m predicting a decline of 52% giving Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps a gross of $2.2 million and a 10th place finish.
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
Samson and Delilah – This film is about two displaced Indigenous Australian teenagers. This film does not have an official theatre count and has a 97% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Carlos – This is a biopic about Carlos the Jackal. This film is being released in 2 theatres and has a 93% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Vision – This is a biopic about the pioneering nun Hildegard von Bingen. This film is being released in 1 theatre and has an 86% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Down Terrace – This is a comedy about a father and son who are crime bosses. The film is being released in 2 theatres and has an 80% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Hereafter – This film stars Matt Damon and is directed by Clint Eastwood and is about a group of people dealing with life after death. This film is being released in 6 theatres and has a 69% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Conviction – This film stars Hilary Swank and is based on the true story of a woman who goes to law school in order to defend her brother from crimes that she believes he did not commit. This film will be released in 11 theatres and has a 64% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
The Two Escobars – This is a documentary about two people who share the same name: one is a drug dealer, the other a soccer player. This film will be released in 12 theatres and has a 60% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Gerrymandering – This is a documentary about the politics of congressional redistricting in the United States. This film will be released in 12 theatres and has a 33% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Carmo, Hit The Road – This is a “Bonnie and Clyde”-esque story about two outlaws who find love while they try to escape the law. This film is being released in 1 theatre and has a 20% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
I Want Your Money – This film will be released in 537 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
N-Secure – This film will be released in 483 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
The Trouble with Terkel – This film will be released in 2 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
White Lion – This film will be released in 3 theatres and does not have a rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
- Jackass 3-D – $32 million
- Red – $17 million
- The Social Network – $9.7 million
- Life As We Know It – $8.1 million
- Secretariat – $6.5 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!