Three new films open this weekend with the hopes of dethroning The Social Network from the top of the box office. There is the drama Secretariat about the legendary horse, the horror flick My Soul to Take from director Wes Craven and the dramedy Life as We Know It with Josh Duhamel and Katherine Heigl. Only one of them has a real shot at becoming box office champion, so here’s how I see the weekend breaking down:
Secretariat stars Diane Lane and John Malkovich and is about the rise of the world’s most famous racing horse. The film is being released by Walt Disney Pictures and has a marketing campaign that feels very similar to The Blind Side which was a massive hit for Warner Bros. last fall. The Blind Side and another horse film Seabiscuit did extremely well in theatres on their opening weekends. See below:
2009 – The Blind Side – $34.1 million opening weekend
2003 – Seabiscuit – $20.8 million opening weekend
Average Opening Weekend – $27.45 million
I don’t know if Secretariat will hit the same totals as The Blind Side but it should definitely do around Seabiscuit numbers. Reviews for Secretariat have been mixed to slightly positive with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 62% positive as of this writing. Opening in 3,072 theatres, I’m predicting that Secretariat finishes in 1st place with a gross of $23 million.
Life as We Know It is a dramedy about a man and woman who don’t like each other, but are forced to co-exist when they are named in their friends will as guardians in the event of their friend’s death (which happens). The film is not receiving very strong reviews as Rotten Tomatoes lists the film at 26% positive as of this writing, and considering this is a film targeting adults, that is not a good sign. Josh Duhamel and Katherine Heigl are not the biggest draws at the box office, so that is not going to help either. Opening in 3,150 theatres, I’m predicting that Life as We Know It grosses $10 million and finishes in 3rd place.
The final new release of the weekend is My Soul to Take which is directed by Wes Craven. This film reminds me a little bit of the film I Know What You Did Last Summer and My Bloody Valentine as it is about a serial killer who goes out to exact revenge on a small town after a 16 year absence. The killer’s target – teenagers. The film was not screened for critics, and after last weekend’s disappointing debuts for both Let Me In and Case 39, I don’t think My Soul to Take has much of a chance either. Debuting in 2,572 theatres, I’m predicting My Soul to Take will gross $6 million and finish in 6th place.
With Secretariat and Life as We Know It making the top five, I’m predicting that Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps and Easy A will be knocked out of the top five. Here’s how I see rest of the top five unfolding:
The Social Network should hold up well thanks to strong reviews, so I’m predicting a drop of 36%, giving it a gross of $14.3 million and a 2nd place finish.
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole had a strong hold in its second weekend and I would expect another strong hold this weekend. I’m predicting a drop of 35% giving Legend of the Guardians: the Owls of Ga’Hoole a gross of $7 million and a 4th place finish.
The Town is another film that has been posting strong holds, and I’m predicting the film will drop 37% this weekend giving it a gross of $6.1 million and 5th place finish.
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps had a fairly big drop last weekend compared to the other films in the top ten, and I would expect another big drop as well. I’m predicting a decline of 45% giving Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps a gross of $5.5 million and a 7th place finish.
Easy A will drop 41% giving it a gross of $3.9 million and an 8th place finish.
You Again will drop 38% giving it a gross of $3.5 million and an 9th place finish.
Case 39 and Let Me In will battle it out for 10th, but I’m giving the edge to Case 39 because of Renee Zellweger and Bradley Cooper being in the film. I’m predicting a drop of 55% giving Case 39 a gross of $2.3 million.
Opening in limited release, we have the following films:
Inside Job – This documentary is about the current economic crisis. This film is being released in 2 theatres and has a 90% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Nowhere Boy – This film stars Kristin Scott Thomas and is about the early life of John Lennon. This film is being released in 4 theatres and has an 80% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Tamara Drew – This film stars Gemma Arterton and is about a girl who returns to her hometown and turns life upside down for its residents. This film will be released in 4 theatres and has a 74% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
It’s Kind of a Funny Story – This film stars Zach Galifianakis and follows the lives of patients at a mental hospital. The film is being released in 742 theatres and has a 60% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
Stone – This film stars Edward Norton and Robert De Niro and is about an arsonist and a parole officer and the woman who gets between them. This film is being released in 6 theatres and has a 45% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
I Spit On Your Grave – This revenge film is a remake of a cult 70’s film about a woman who goes on a killing rampage after being brutally beaten and left for dead. This film will be released in 12 theatres and has a 33% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
It’s A Wonderful Afterlife – This film is about a mother’s obsession with her daughter’s marriage prospects. This film is being released in 21 theatres and has a 25% positive rating at Rotten Tomatoes.
So to recap, here are my predictions:
Secretariat – $27 million
The Social Network – $10.7 million
Life As We Know It – $9.8 million
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole – $10.7 million
The Town – $8.55 million
Remember to check back on Sunday to see how I did!