After last weekend’s incredible predictions at the box office, I was hoping to continue the momentum. Unfortunately, I had an absolutely terrible weekend of predictions. I did predict what five films would make the top five, but I only got one in order, and was not really close on the majority of the films. The Expendables led the box office, and Julia Roberts also had an impressive showing with Eat Pray Love. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World did not light the box office on fire and will find a bigger audience on DVD. Here’s how the box office broke down:
Debuting in 1st place is the testosterone fueled flick The Expendables with a gross of $35 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $22 million). The Expendables had a strong per theatre average of $10,713 (the highest of any film in release). The debut was good considering how some recent action films have faired, but it’s debut was not as strong as the Angelina Jolie thriller Salt. See below:
Salt – $36 million opening weekend
The Expendables – $35 million opening weekend
The A-Team – $25.6 million opening weekend
Knight and Day – $20.1 million opening weekend
The question now is how big a drop will the film suffer next weekend? Up front demand is strong for films like this, but now that the core audience is satisfied, will The Expendables be able to get repeat business as well as drawing in new audiences? I don’t think it will, especially because we are in the dog days of summer films, as we’re hitting the point where audiences won’t be excited to see many films until the fall when awards season gears up. Still, the debut is impressive, but with a production budget that is rumoured to be around $70 million, I’m sure producers were hoping for a bigger debut, especially with all the names involved on the film.
Debuting in 2nd place is the Julia Roberts drama Eat Pray Love with a gross of $23.7 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $16 million). Eat Pray Love had a per theatre average of $7,690. Eat Pray Love has the same problem as The Expendables next weekend as the core audience has been met this weekend, so will it be able to draw in any new audiences or get repeat viewers? I have to think the answer will be no, because up front demand has been met, and with reviews even worse than those of The Expendables it is unlikely to draw adults. Having said that, the debut is a return to form for Julia Roberts who has not been the main attraction in a film for quite some time, and the debut proves that she can still open a film. With a budget rumoured to be around $60 million, Eat Pray Love still has its work cut out for it.
Dropping from 1st place to 3rd place is the action-comedy The Other Guys with a gross of $18 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $20.2 million). The Other Guys had a per theatre average of $4,930 and dropped 49.4% from last weekend. The drop was higher than the average of the films that I used to make my prediction on Friday. See below:
2009 – Land of the Lost – 52.3% second weekend drop
2008 – Step Brothers – 46.7% second weekend drop
2008 – Semi-Pro – 61.6% second weekend drop
2008 – Max Payne – 55.8% second weekend drop
2007 – Blades of Glory – 31.8% second weekend drop
2007 – Shooter – 42.4% second weekend drop
2006 – Invincible – 28.7% second weekend drop
2006 – Talladega Nights: the Ballad of Ricky Bobby – 53% second weekend drop
2005 – Four Brothers – 41% second weekend drop
2004 – Anchorman: the Legend of Ron Burgundy – 51.3% second weekend drop
2003 – The Italian Job – 32.4% second weekend drop
Average Second Weekend Drop – 45.1%
It’s also not a good sign that in its second weekend, the per theatre average is below $5,000, so the film is not resonating with audiences like a good comedy should. The Other Guys has taken in $70.5 million in 10 days which is good for both Ferrell and Wahlberg as they both needed The Other Guys to be a hit. Next weekend The Other Guys will face some competition from two comedies (Vampires Suck and The Lottery Ticket), so we’ll see how well it holds against the newcomers next weekend.
Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is Inception with a gross of $11.3 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $11.6 million). The per theatre average for Inception was $3,644, and the film was down 38.6% from last weekend. The drops for Inception have been less than 40% every weekend, which is astonishing considering the up front demand that blockbuster films usually have, which are then followed by massive drops in the subsequent weekends. After five weekends, Inception has grossed $248.5 million.
Debuting in 5th place is the comedy Scott Pilgrim vs. the World with a gross of $10.5 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $15 million). Scott Pilgrim vs. the World had a per theatre average of $3,735. The opening is definitely a disappointment considering the great reviews and the excellent buzz the film had at Comic-Con, but as I stated on Friday, Edgar Wright and Michael Cera films tend to find larger audiences on DVD, and I’m sure this film will continue that trend. The budget on the film is rumoured to be around $60 million, so Scott Pilgrim vs. the World will not become a profitable film for Universal, but I think it is still a film worth checking out and it will eventually find an audience.
Despicable Me was the #6 film for the second weekend in a row with a gross of $6.7 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $5 million). Despicable Me had a per theatre average of $2,315 and was down 27.1% from last weekend. After 6 weekends, Despicable Me has grossed $221.9 million.
Step Up 3-D finished in 7th place with a gross of $6.6 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $7.4 million). Step Up 3-D had a per theatre average of $2,717 and dropped 58.1% from last weekend. After 2 weekends, Step Up 3-D has grossed $29.5 million.
Salt finished in 8th place with a gross of $6.35 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $5.7 million). Salt had a per theatre average of $2,241 and dropped 41.8% from last weekend. After 4 weekends, Salt has grossed $103.5 million.
Dinner for Schmucks finished in 9th place with a gross of $6.31 million (I predicted a 9th place finish and a gross of $4.7 million). Dinner for Schmucks had a per theatre average of $2,074 and dropped 39.1% from last weekend. After 3 weekends, Dinner for Schmucks has grossed $58.8 million.
Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore was the #10 film with a gross of $4 million (I predicted a 10th place finish and a gross of $3.7 million). Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore had a per theatre average of $1,494 and was down 41% from last weekend. After 3 weekends, Cats and Dogs: the Revenge of Kitty Galore has grossed $35.1 million.
In other movie news:
Toy Story 3 finished in 11th place, grossing $2.1 million, which brings its total gross to $400.7 million.
In limited release:
Animal Kingdom – Guy Pearce stars in this crime-drama about the Australian underworld. The film grossed $64,100 from 7 theatres for a per theatre average of $9,157.
Tales From Earthsea – This animated film from filmmaker Goro Miyazaki (son of famous animator Hayao Miyazaki) follows the adventures of a wizard trying to find out the reason behind a disturbance in his magical world. It grossed $20,100 from 5 theatres for a per theatre average of $4,020.
The People I’ve Slept with, Neshoba, Peepli Live, Salt of the Sea and La Soga Murders have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
The Expendables – $22 million
The Other Guys – $20.2 million
Eat Pray Love – $16 million
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World – $15 million
Inception – $11.6 million
And here are the actual numbers:
The Expendables – $35 million
Eat Pray Love – $23.7 million
The Other Guys – $18 million
Inception – $11.3 million
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World – $10.5 million
My predictions compared to the actual top five films were off by $27.7 million.
Next weekend, The Expendables has a quite a few films looking to dethrone it at the box office. Emma Thompson stars in the family film Nanny McPhee Returns, while Elisabeth Shue, Jerry O’Connell battle deadly fish in Piranha 3-D, the guys who brought you Disaster Movie, Epic Movie, and Date Movie now bring you Vampires Suck, a man who wins the lottery does his best to keep his neighbours from finding out in The Lottery Ticket and Jason Bateman and Jennifer Aniston star in the romantic comedy The Switch.
Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!