The Twilight Saga: Eclipse had a very strong opening and a decent weekend at the box office (yes there is a difference) while The Last Airbender surprised many people with its strong debut. My predictions were absolutely awful this weekend as my top five were off by more than $75 million, which is actually more than The Twilight Saga: Eclipse grossed this weekend. I predicted all the films in the top five, but only two in order. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Debuting in 1st place is The Twilight Saga: Eclipse with a gross of $69 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $115 million). The Twilight Saga: Eclipse had a great per theatre average of $15,443 and powered the box office this weekend. The film opened on Wednesday, and saw the bulk of its business come from its opening day, as in five days The Twilight Saga: Eclipse has taken in $161 million. What is becoming a trend with the franchise is that the die hard fans show up on opening day and power the film to a strong gross. After that, the film rapidly deteriorates. Here’s the list I used on Friday compared to the daily grossed for The Twilight Saga: Eclipse:
Friday’s Gross – $35.9 million
Saturday’s Gross – $21.2 million (Down 40.8%)
Sunday’s Gross – $12.3 million (Down 41.9%)
Total Opening Weekend Gross – $69.6 million
The Twilight Saga: New Moon
Friday’s Gross – $72.7 million
Saturday’s Gross – $42.2 million (Down 41.8%)
Sunday’s Gross – $27.8 million (Down 34.2%)
Total Opening Weekend Gross – $142.8 million
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Wednesday’s Gross – $68.5 million
Thursday’s Gross – $24.2 million (Down 64.7%)
Friday’s Gross – $28.5 million (Up 17.7%)
Saturday’s Gross – $23.9 million (Down 16.1%)
Sunday’s Gross – $16.6 million (Down 30.5%)
Total Opening Weekend Gross – $161 million
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse is actually running behind The Twilight Saga: New Moon because in New Moon’s first five days of release, it took in $164.6 million. I wouldn’t be too worried about that because the grosses are virtually the same, but it will be interesting to see how the film plays out in the coming weeks, as this is the first Twilight film to be released in the summer, and I would argue that competition is tougher in the summer than the fall.
Debuting in 2nd place is The Last Airbender with a gross of $40.6 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $18 million). The Last Airbender had a per theatre average of $12,187. The film represents the third best opening weekend in M. Night Shyamalan’s career. Here’s the list:
1) Signs – $60 million opening weekend
2) The Village – $50.7 million opening weekend
3) The Last Airbender – $40.6 million opening weekend
4) The Happening – $30.5 million opening weekend
5) Unbreakable – $30.3 million opening weekend
6) The Sixth Sense – $26.6 million opening weekend
7) Lady in the Water – $18 million opening weekend
8) Wide Awake – $95,875 opening weekend
The studio should be happy with the gross this weekend as a $40.6 million is a good thing. What will be interesting to see is next weekend, as reviews for The Last Airbender have been terrible, so how big will the word-of-mouth factor be. It also will face some new competition in Despicable Me. Still, I had doubts about The Last Airbender and I underestimated the loyal following of this franchise. Its target audience turned out and it had a strong debut.
Dropping from 1st place to 3rd place was Toy Story 3 with a gross of $30.1 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $28.5 million). Toy Story 3 had a per theatre average of $7,491 and was down 49.1% in its third weekend. The drop was pretty high when compared with the list I used on Friday for other Pixar films. See below:
1) Monsters Inc. – 50.1% third weekend drop
2) Toy Story 3 – 49.1% third weekend drop
3) The Incredibles – 47.2% third weekend drop
4) Wall-E – 42.2% third weekend drop
5) Finding Nemo – 39.1% third weekend drop
6) Ratatouille – 37.9% third weekend drop
7) Toy Story – 31.2% third weekend drop
8) Cars – 31% third weekend drop
9) Up – 30.3% third weekend drop
Note – A Bug’s Life and Toy Story 2 opened in limited release, so their third weekend drops were not included.
Still Toy Story 3 is on pace to become Pixar’s highest grossing movie, as it is currently the third highest of all time. Here are the top three grossing Pixar films of all time:
1) Finding Nemo – $339.7 million
2) Up – $293 million
3) Toy Story 3 – $289 million
It will be #2 some point this week and should have no problem surpassing the $339.7 million of Finding Nemo. Next weekend poses some competition for Toy Story 3 with the animated film Despicable Me. As shown above, after three weekends Toy Story 3 has taken in $289 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is Grown Ups with a gross of $18.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $21.8 million). The per theatre average for Grown Ups was $5,235 and the film was down 54.3% from its opening weekend. The percentage drop is not good news for the film, as it is the second highest second weekend drop in the list of films that I have been using to compare it with. Here’s the list:
1) You Don’t Mess with the Zohan – 57.5% second weekend drop
2) Grown Ups – 54.3% second weekend drop
3) Big Daddy – 51.8% second weekend drop
4) Little Nicky – 51.7% second weekend drop
5) Mr. Deeds – 50.5% second weekend drop
6) Click – 50.2% second weekend drop
7) 50 First Dates – 48.7% second weekend drop
8) The Longest Yard – 45.2% second weekend drop
9) I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry – 44.1% second weekend drop
10) Anger Management – 40.8% second weekend drop
11) The Waterboy – 38% second weekend drop
12) The Wedding Singer – 35.2% second weekend drop
13) Paul Blart: Mall Cop – 32.1% second weekend drop
14) Bedtime Stories – 25.3% second weekend drop
Grown Ups should still hit $100 million and you really can’t be disappointed, because that is a figure that you expect most Sandler films to gross. After two weekend Grown Ups has grossed $77 million.
Dropping from 3rd place to 5th place is Knight and Day with a gross of $10.2 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $11.5 million). The per theatre average for Knight and Day was $3,286 and it was down 49.4% from its opening weekend. The per theatre average is not a good sign for the film, and with the budget rumoured to be around $120 million, Knight and Day has to be considered a disappointment. After two weekends Knight and Day has grossed $45.5 million.
The only other film to gross more than $5 million this weekend was The Karate Kid which dropped from 4th place to 6th place with a gross of $8 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $8.1 million). The Karate Kid had a per theatre average of $2,573 and was down 48.5% from last weekend. After four weekends, The Karate Kid has grossed $151.5 million.
In other box office news:
Last weekend How to Train Your Dragon tied Kung Fu Panda for the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks Animation history. Earlier this week How to Train Your Dragon achieved that distinction. This weekend How to Train Your Dragon grossed of $352,000. Here’s the updated list of top grossing DreamWorks Animations films:
1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million
2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million
3) Shrek – $267.6 million
4) Shrek Forever After – $232.1 million
5) How To Train Your Dragon – $216.1 million
6) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million
In limited release:
Love Ranch – The film starring Helen Mirren and Joe Pesci about a couple who run a brothel grossed $49,500 from 11 theatres and had a per theatre average of $4,500.
Only When I Dance, The Agony and Ecstasy of Phil Spector and Great Directors have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – $115 million
Toy Story 3 – $28.5 million
Grown Ups – $21.8 million
The Last Airbender – $18 million
Knight and Day – $11.5 million
And here are the actual numbers:
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse – $69 million
The Last Airbender – $40.6 million
Toy Story 3 – $30.1 million
Grown Ups – $18.5 million
Knight and Day – $10.2 million
My predictions compared to the actual top five films were off by $74.8 million.
Next weekend, Steve Carell is a super-villain in the animated adventure Despicable Me and for action fans; we get a new take on a once popular franchise with Predators. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!