Scotty G’s Box Office Wrap-Up Report

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This weekend, the battle of the 80’s went to The Karate Kid as it ended Shrek Forever After’s three week reign at the top of the box office.  The A-Team opened to a decent, if unspectacular, opening weekend and the box office performed pretty well overall.  As for my predictions, I was five for five and I correctly predicted where every film finished.  However, I wasn’t close on my predictions for The Karate Kid or The A-Team.  Here’s how the weekend broke down:

The Karate Kid opened at #1 with a spectacular gross of $56 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $45 million).  The Karate Kid had a per theatre average of $15,288 which was the highest per theatre average in the top ten.  The opening weekend caught everyone off guard, as most people did not think the film would get close to $40 million, let alone $50 million.  The opening weekend was the 8th highest opening weekend in the month of June.  The marketing on the film was excellent, the reviews were good, and it brought in a diverse audience.  Adults who remembered the first one came to check this new version out, and young kids wanted to see the story of The Karate Kid as well.  As I said in my report on Friday, although no one is going to see this film because Jackie Chan is in it, his presence gives the film that much more credibility, and you just expected a better film with him in it, than without it.  In fact, The Karate Kid‘s opening weekend is the 2nd highest opening weekend in Jackie Chan’s career (3rd highest if you include his voice work in Kung Fu Panda). The Karate Kid was budgeted at $40 million, so this is going to be an extremely profitable franchise for Sony Pictures, and I would expect sequels to follow.  The Karate Kid is a feel good movie, and I think it will have a very nice run over the course of the summer.

Debuting in 2nd place is The A-Team with a gross of $26 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish with a gross of $41 million).  The A-Team had a per theatre average of $7,335, which was the 2nd highest per theatre average in the top ten.  The film received mixed to good reviews, but everyone agreed that this was the best mindless summer popcorn flick so far this summer.  The debut has to be a little disappointing, as you would expect an action film with some star power and a built in 1980’s fan base to at least gross more than $30 million, so we’ll have to see how the film holds up in the coming weeks.  The per theatre average is a sign of concern, as I expected it to be higher (at least over $10,000).  The films I used to compare The A-Team with were a mixed bag that made my prediction be as high as it was, and I have only myself to blame for that.  If I had stuck to just using Miami Vice and Taken my prediction would have been closer, but c’est la vie.  We’ll see how audience respond to The A-Team in the coming weeks, as we’ll see if audiences want to see a summer popcorn film, or something with a little more substance (which to be honest, there has not been a lot of substance films this summer).

After a three week reign at the box office, Shrek Forever After drops from 1st place to 3rd place with a gross of $15.8 million.  (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $14.7 million).  Shrek Forever After had a per theatre average of $4,085 and was down 38% from last weekend.  Here’s how the Shrek films stack up on their fourth weekend:

2001 – Shrek – $16.5 million third weekend gross – Down 41.4%

2004 – Shrek 2 – $23.3 million third weekend gross – Down 38.5%

2007 – Shrek the Third – $15.3 million third weekend gross – Down 45.3%

2010 – Shrek Forever After – $15.8 million third weekend gross – Down 38%

The good news for Shrek Forever After is that this is the first time it has had the lowest percentage drop of a weekend out of any film in the franchise.  Still the film will most likely top out around the gross of the original Shrek which is not good for a sequel.  Here are the total grosses for the franchise:

1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million

2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million

3) Shrek – $267.6 million

4) Shrek Forever After – $210 million

Next weekend should deliver a big blow to the box office performance of Shrek Forever After as Toy Story 3 opens, so audiences will want to see that animated tale over Shrek Forever AfterToy Story 3 will also be taking away a significant portion of Shrek Forever After’s 3-D screenings as Toy Story 3 will be in IMAX and regular 3-D.  As shown above, after four weekend Shrek Forever After has grossed $210 million.

Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is the comedy Get Him to the Greek with a gross of $10.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $10.8 million).  Get Him to the Greek had a per theatre average of $3,738 and was down 42.5% from last weekend.  I said in my predictions on Friday that Forgetting Sarah Marshall had a 37.8% drop in its second weekend and that Get Him to the Greek would have a slightly higher drop-off this weekend.  I was bang on in that regard.  Get Him to the Greek is performing just like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and for proof here’s how the two films have done after their second weekend:

2010 – Get Him to the Greek – $36.5 million after two weekends

2008 – Forgetting Sarah Marshall – $35 million after two weekends

Forgetting Sarah Marshall finished its run $62.8 million, and I would expect Get Him to the Greek to finish just below that number, which is not bad considering the film cost $40 million.  As mentioned above, the total gross for Get Him to the Greek is $36.5 million.

Dropping from 3rd place to 5th place is Killers with a gross of $8.1 million (I predicted a gross of $8.4 million and a 5th place finish).  Killers had a per theatre average of $2,858 and was down 48.4% from last weekend.  Last weekend, I admitted that I underestimated the star power of Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl, but this weekend is more in line with how I thought the first weekend would be.  The per theatre average for the film is not a good sign, as it’s below $3,000 in its second weekend, which means that audiences are not into the film.  What’s frightening to me is that the budget for Killers is estimated to be around $75 million, and there is no way that Killers will gross that much money so it has to be considered a disappointment for Lions Gate.  After two weekends, Killers has grossed $30.6 million.

For fun, let’s see how my predictions for 6th place, 7th place and 8th place did:

Prince of Persia: the Sands of Time dropped from 4th place to 6th place with a gross of $6.6 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $5.7 million).  Prince of Persia: the Sands of Time had a per theatre average of $2,124 and was down 52.9% from last weekend.  Like I said with Killers, the per theatre average is not a good sign for the film, as interest is low, and audiences would rather see something else in theatres.  After three weekends, Prince of Persia: the Sands of Time has taken in $72.3 million, which is disappointing considering the budget for the film is estimated to be around $200 million.

Marmaduke dropped from 6th place to 7th place this weekend with a gross of $6 million (I predicted an 8th place finish and a gross of $5.3 million).  Marmaduke had a per theatre average of $1,867 and was down 48.3% from last weekend.  These numbers are awful for a film in its second weekend, so expect to see Marmaduke on DVD shelves soon, which is not good news for the reportedly $50 million dollar film.  After two weekends Marmaduke has grossed $22.2 million.

Sex and the City 2 dropped from 5th place to 8th place this weekend with a gross of $5.5 million (I predicted a 7th place finish and a gross of $5.5 million).  The per theatre average for Sex and the City 2 is $2,009 and the film was down 55.2% from last weekend.  The total gross for Sex and the City 2 after three weekends stands at $84.7 million.

The rest of the top ten was as follows:

In 9th place is Iron Man 2 with a gross of $4.5 million.  The per theatre average for Iron Man 2 is $1,974 and the film was down 42.5% from last weekend.  The total gross for Iron Man 2 after six weekends stands at $299.3 million.

Rounding out the top ten is Splice with a gross of $2.8 million.  The per theatre average for Splice is $1,167 and the film was down 61.3% from last weekend.  That is the highest percentage drop in the top ten, but is not unexpected as horror films do suffer high drop-offs in their second weekends.  The total gross for Splice after two weekends is $13 million.

In other box office news:

Here’s the How to Train Your Dragon report for the weekend to see if it can succeed in its quest to become the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history.  This weekend How to Train Your Dragon finished with a gross of $320,000.  Its total gross stands at $214.4 million, and it is now less than $1 million away from surpassing Kung Fu Panda for the title of highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history.  Here’s the list:

1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million

2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million

3) Shrek – $267.6 million

4) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million

5) How To Train Your Dragon – $214.4 million

6) Shrek Forever After – $210 million

In limited release: 

Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky – This is the film about the affair between the two people in the title.  The film grossed $48,800 from 3 theatres for a per theatres average of $16,267.

The Lottery – This is a documentary that chronicles the lives of four families as they try and get their children into a prestigious New York Academy.  The film grossed $17,000 from one theatre.

Winter’s Bone, Joan Rivers: a Piece of Work, Reel Injun and Gangster’s Paradise:  Jerusalema have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.

So to recap, here were my predictions:

  1. The Karate Kid – $45 million 
  2. The A-Team – $41 million
  3. Shrek Forever After – $14.7 million
  4. Get Him To The Greek – $10.8 million
  5. Killers – $8.4 million

And here are the actual numbers:

  1. The Karate Kid – $56 million 
  2. The A-Team – $26 million
  3. Shrek Forever After – $15.8 million
  4. Get Him To The Greek – $10.1 million
  5. Killers – $8.1 million

My predictions were off by $28.1 million. 

Next weekend, The Karate Kid looks to be the #1 film at the box office against Disney/Pixar’s latest film Toy Story 3 and against Jonah Hex with Josh Brolin, Megan Fox and John Malkovich. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!

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