Shrek Forever After debuted at #1 this weekend, but the opening was nowhere near the levels of the previous two Shrek films. Iron Man 2 fell to second place, and Robin Hood was third. What was surprising to me was that MacGruber did not make the top five. I didn’t think it would take that much to get into the top five and I was right as the #5 film grossed only $4.2 million. Unfortunately MacGruber was a little short in reaching that figure. I correctly picked three films in order at the box office (the big mistake was having MacGruber make the top five) and had a below average week of predictions. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Opening in 1st place is the sequel Shrek Forever After with a gross of $71.3 million (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $92 million). Shrek Forever After had a per theatre average of $16,345, which was the highest per theatre in the top ten. Shrek Forever After was nowhere close to the previous opening weekend of the last two films. For comparisons sake, they are as follows:
2001 – Shrek – $42.3 million opening weekend
2004 – Shrek 2 – $108 million opening weekend
2007 – Shrek the Third – $121 million opening weekend
2010 – Shrek Forever After – $71.3 million opening weekend
Shrek Forever After did do better on its opening weekend than recent DreamWorks animation films, and actually did better than some recent Disney//Pixar films on its opening weekend. See below:
2010 – How to Train Your Dragon – $43.7 million opening weekend
2009 – Up – $68.1 million opening weekend
2009 – Monsters vs. Aliens – $59.3 million opening weekend
2008 – Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $63.1 million opening weekend
2008 – Wall-E – $63 million opening weekend
2008 – Kung-Fu Panda – $60.2 million opening weekend
2007 – Bee Movie – $38 million opening weekend
2006 – Over The Hedge – $38.4 million opening weekend
2005 – Madagascar – $47.2 million opening weekend
2004 – Shark Tale – $47.6 million opening weekend
Unfortunately, this opening weekend has to be considered a disappointment because Shrek is a franchise film, and it was being shown in 3-D, which boosts ticket prices, which should have boosted its gross. The opening weekend number is not great, and I have my doubts about Shrek Forever After matching the total of the original Shrek film’s gross of $267.6 million. Next weekend will help the film because of the Memorial Day long weekend, so it should suffer a small decline. If it doesn’t, then the Shrek franchise is done. I just have to stress that I think this is a very disappointing opening weekend for the film.
Iron Man 2 dropped to 2nd place with a gross of $26.6 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $22.36 million). Iron Man 2 had a per theatre average of $6,368 and dropped 48.9% from last weekend. While Iron Man 2 is out grossing the original Iron Man, I want to bring up an interesting point of comparison. Here are the numbers for the two Iron Man films on their 3rd weekend:
2008 – Iron Man – $31.8 million third weekend gross // 37.8% drop from previous weekend. Total gross in its third weekend – $223.1 million.
2010 – Iron Man 2 – $26.6 million third weekend gross // 48.9% drop from previous weekend. Total gross in its third weekend – $251.2 million.
It is interesting to note that Iron Man out grossed Iron Man 2 on its third weekend. If Iron Man 2 keeps deteriorating at the box office, it maybe hard pressed to surpass the original’s gross of $318.4 million. I don’t think that will happen, but it will not surpass it by very much.
Dropping from 2nd place to 3rd place is Robin Hood with a gross of $18.7 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $19.44 million). Robin Hood had a per theatre average of $5,335 and dropped 48.1% from last weekend. The film had a decent hold in its second weekend considering the mixed reviews it received. Robin Hood is not going to set the box office on fire, but it is an adult alternative for viewers, as most of the films being released are not geared for an audience who is looking for a serious film. The budget for the film is reportedly around $200 million, and when you include international figures, Robin Hood will make back it’s budget. After two weekends Robin Hood has grossed $66.1 million.
Dropping from 3rd place to 4th place is Letters to Juliet with a gross of $9.1 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $8.1 million). Letters to Juliet had a per theatre average of $3,059 and a percentage drop of just 32.8%. The drop is great news for the film, and is actually a very low percentage drop when compared to the films that I used last weekend for my prediction. Here’s the list:
1) Dear John – 47.3% second weekend drop
2) The Last Song – 38.6% second weekend drop
3) Mamma Mia – 36.1% second weekend drop
4) Letters to Juliet – 32.8% second weekend drop
As I said last week, I do think Amanda Seyfried can become a bankable leading lady someday, but I just feel that she is being rushed too early to headline films. The strong hold this weekend will only add to her box office bankability, and she will soon be doing films that are consistently strong on their opening weekend. After two weekends, Letters to Juliet has grossed $27.4 million.
The battle for 5th place is very tight, and it could change when final numbers come out. As of this writing, Just Wright is currently in 5th place with a gross of $4.22 million (I did not make a prediction for the film as I thought MacGruber would easily gross more than $5 million to give it 5th place). Just Wright had a per theatre average of $2,307 and was down 49% from last weekend. Its total gross stands at $14.6 million.
Debuting to horrible results in 6th place is MacGruber with a gross of $4.1 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $11 million). The per theatre average was a paltry $1,607. I did not think in my wildest dreams that MacGruber would perform this badly in theatres. It had a worse opening weekend than any of the films that I listed on Friday. For comparison’s sake, here they are again:
2000 – The Ladies Man – $5.4 million opening weekend
1999 – Superstar – $8.9 million opening weekend
1998 – A Night at the Roxbury – $9.6 million opening weekend
1993 – Wayne’s World 2 – $13.5 million opening weekend
1993 – Coneheads – $7.1 million opening weekend
1992 – Wayne’s World – $18.1 million opening weekend
I really think any SNL sketch that wants to be turned into a film will have second thoughts after the dismal results of MacGruber. I thought there was some good will for the film after the Betty White Saturday Night Live show, and reviews were decent as of Friday (although Rotten Tomatoes has since added more reviews, and MacGruber is now at 54% positive). $125,000 separates MacGruber with Just Wright for 5th place, so it may make the top five when final numbers come out on Monday. I have my doubts that the film will make back its $10 million budget. Just a disappointing result for the film.
I’m going to continue to report on How to Train Your Dragon to see if it can become the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history. This weekend it finished in 9th place with a gross of $1.85 million. Its total gross stands at $210.9 million, and it is now less than $5 million away from surpassing Kung Fu Panda for the title of highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks animation history. Here’s the list:
1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million
2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million
3) Shrek – $267.6 million
4) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million
5) How To Train Your Dragon – $210.9 million
In limited release:
Kites – the film about a man who is left in the desert to die and does whatever he can to survive so he can get back to the woman he loves finished in 10th place with a gross of $1.03 million from 208 theatres for a per theatre average of $4,976.
Solitary Man – the film that reunites Michael Douglas and Danny DeVito and is about a car mogul whose life is crashing around him grossed $89,000 from 4 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $22,250.
Racing Dreams – the documentary that follows three youngsters who drive go-karts but have big dreams of making it in Nascar grossed $21,500 from 33 theatres giving it a per theatre average of $652.
After the Cup: Sons of Sakhnin United – the documentary about soccer in Israel grossed $3,300 from one theatre, giving it the same per theatre average.
Perrier’s Bounty, John Rabe, Holy Rollers, Two in the Wave, and Father of my Children have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
- Shrek Forever After – $92 million
- Iron Man 2 – $22.36 million
- Robin Hood – $19.44 million
- MacGruber – $11 million
- Letters to Juliet – $8.5 million
And here are the actual numbers:
- Shrek Forever After – $71.3 million
- Iron Man 2 – $26.6 million
- Robin Hood – $18.7 million
- Letters to Juliet – $9.1 million
- Just Wright – $4.2 million
My predictions were off by $33.18 million.
***Note – I did not make a prediction for Just Wright so I went by how far off my five predictions were, not the films in the top five that I normally do.
Next weekend, Shrek Forever After looks to be the #1 film at the box office for a second weekend in a row against Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time. Check out Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!
