For the second weekend in a row, my box office predictions were very strong, as I was a combined $8.04 million off in my box office predictions, and I correctly picked what five films would appear in the top five with two of them in order (admittedly that is not so strong). The weekend was led by A Nightmare on Elm Street, but sadly other rebooted horror franchises have opened stronger. Even sadder was the opening weekend gross of Furry Vengeance, but we’ll get to that shortly. Here’s how the weekend broke down:
Debuting in 1st place with a gross of $32.2 million is the horror franchise reboot A Nightmare on Elm Street (I predicted a 1st place finish and a gross of $33 million). The film had a per theatre average of $9,665, which is the highest in the top ten. Sadly, the reboot didn’t have the highest opening weekend for a horror franchise reboot. Here is the list I displayed on Friday with A Nightmare on Elm Street fitting in:
2009 – Friday The 13th – $40.5 million opening weekend
2010 – A Nightmare on Elm Street – $32.2 million opening weekend
2003 – The Texas Chainsaw Massacre – $28 million opening weekend
2007 – Halloween – $26.3 million opening weekend
2005 – The Amityville Horror – $23.5 million opening weekend
2008 – Prom Night – $20.8 million opening weekend
I still think that Freddy Krueger is the more popular villain over Jason, and I think if the studio released this film around Halloween, it would have had a higher gross, but it’s easy to play armchair quarterback, and the film did get above $30 million. It also had the 7th highest opening weekend for the month of April, so that is some good news. Here are the top ten April openings:
1) Fast and Furious – $70.9 million opening weekend
2) Clash of the Titans – $61.2 million opening weekend
3) Anger Management – $42.2 million opening weekend
4) Scary Movie 4 – $40.2 million opening weekend
5) The Scorpion King – $36 million opening weekend
6) Hannah Montana: The Movie – $32.3 million opening weekend
7) A Nightmare on Elm Street – $32.2 million opening weekend
8) Why Did I Get Married Too – $29.2 million opening weekend
9) Sin City – $29.1 million opening weekend
10) Obsessed – $28.6 million opening weekend
As expected with most horror films, reviews were terrible, and the film is going to have a very front loaded total gross, as I expect Iron Man 2 to absolutely obliterate everything in its path next weekend. Expect a drop-off of over 65% next weekend for A Nightmare on Elm Street.
Dropping from 1st place to 2nd place is How to Train Your Dragon with a gross of $10.8 million (I predicted a 2nd place finish and a gross of $11.3 million). The film had yet another amazing hold as it was only down 29.5% from last weekend (which surprisingly is not the lowest percentage drop in the top ten) and had a per theatre average of $3,160. In its 6th weekend of release, How to Train Your Dragon has now become DreamWorks Animation 7th highest grossing film of all-time. At some point this week it will pass Madagascar, and Monsters vs. Aliens to become the 5th highest grossing film in the history of DreamWorks Animation. Here’s the breakdown:
1) Shrek 2 – $441.2 million
2) Shrek The Third – $322.7 million
3) Shrek – $267.6 million
4) Kung Fu Panda – $215.4 million
5) Monsters vs. Aliens – $198.3 million
6) Madagascar – $193.5 million
7) How To Train Your Dragon – $192.3 million
8) Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa – $180 million
9) Shark Tale – $160.8 million
10) Over The Hedge – $155 million
How to Train Your Dragon should overthrow Kung Fu Panda in about 2-3 weeks time to become the highest grossing non-Shrek film in DreamWorks Animation history. Surprisingly, it should be smooth sailing for How to Train Your Dragon until Shrek the Fourth comes out near the end of May, which will most likely put it down one spot on the all-time chart.
Staying in 3rd place for a third weekend in a row is Date Night with a gross of $7.6 million (I predicted a 4th place finish and a gross of $6.76 million). Date Night had a per theatre average of $2,457, and dropped 27.4% from last weekend, which was the lowest percentage drop of any film in the top ten. Word-of-mouth has been very strong for this film, as it just continues to hang in the top five. I really have to stress the great casting of Steve Carell and Tina Fey, as audiences definitely wanted to see them on film together. After four weekends, Date Night has grossed $73.6 million.
Dropping from 2nd place to 4th place is the Jennifer Lopez comedy The Back-Up Plan with a gross of $7.2 million (I predicted a 5th place finish and a gross of $5.8 million). The film had a per theatre average of $2,207 which is not good news for a film in its 2nd weekend. I really question the decision of Jennifer Lopez being the lead because the star-power she once possessed around the start of the millennium has disappeared. Reviews have not helped, and word-of-mouth is not strong, so it is going to end up being on DVD shelves soon. It’s sad for a new comedy when another comedy that has been out twice as long (Date Night) is still able to out gross it at the box office. It has an outside chance of being the #3 film when final numbers come out on Monday, but I would be very surprised if that actually happened. After two weekends The Back-Up Plan has taken in $22.9 million.
Rounding out the top five is the comedy Furry Vengeance with a gross of $6.5 million (I predicted a 3rd place finish and a gross of $11 million). This film absolutely bombed on its opening weekend. I cannot remember a film with such a high theatre count (2,997) opening with a gross of $6.5 million. The 3,000 theatre count should guarantee a gross around $10 million. Reviews were atrocious, and kids would rather see How to Train Your Dragon then Furry Vengeance. Its per theatre average was a paltry $2,169, so expect this film to join The Back-Up Plan on DVD shelves in the very near future.
In a very tight battle for 6th place, The Losers has a slight edge with a gross of $6 million (I predicted a 6th place finish and a gross of $4.2 million) while 7th place is currently occupied by Clash of the Titans with a gross of $5.98 million (I didn’t think the film would be in the top seven). I will stress that The Losers and Clash of the Titans could switch positions when final numbers come out on Monday, as they both even have a shot at overtaking Furry Vengeance for 5th place.
In limited release:
Harry Brown starring Michael Caine as a man who seeks vengeance on the criminals and drug addicts in his neighbourhood grossed $180,000 from 19 theatres for a per theatre average of $9,474.
Please Give starring Amanda Peet and Catherine Keener in a film about life in the 21st century, and how hard it is for their characters to be a good and honest people, when so much poverty and sadness surround them grossed $128,000 from 5 theatres for a per theatre average of $25,600, which is the highest per theatre average of the weekend as of this writing.
The Good Heart, Touching Home, Mercy, and Human Centipede have not reported their opening weekend grosses as of this writing.
So to recap, here were my predictions:
- A Nightmare on Elm Street – $33 million
- How To Train Your Dragon – $11.3 million
- Furry Vengeance – $11 million
- Date Night – $6.76 million
- The Back-Up Plan – $5.8 million
And here are the actual numbers:
- A Nightmare on Elm Street – $32.2 million
- How To Train Your Dragon – $10.8 million
- Date Night – $7.6 million
- The Back-Up Plan – $7.2 million
- Furry Vengeance – $6.5 million
My top five predictions were off by $8.04 million.
Next weekend, expect the box office to be dominated by Iron Man 2, so remember to check Biff Bam Pop next Friday to read my predictions!